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What a reporter needs, in one place.
Cite
FutureBallot, "page title," futureballot.com, forecast as of date, URL.
Every page shows its forecast date under the title.
Download
forecasts.json, every race and chamber · races.csv · chambers.csv · state-legislatures.json, every state chamber and district
The Data page has the daily archive and the data dictionary.
Share
Every race and chamber page has a share row under its title, and every chart a "Share chart" control: download the chart as a dated image, copy a one-line quote with the number, or post it.
Embed
Every race page has an "Embed this forecast" block: one line of HTML for a small card with the chances and the date that updates with the forecast and loads no script. How it works.
Headline numbers as of October 22, 2026
- House: 81% Democratic majority chance · 231 seats expected
- Senate: 53–62% Democratic control chance
- Governors: 27 Democratic governors expected of 50
The front page explains and dates each number. The daily archive on the Data page holds every published forecast.
What FutureBallot is
FutureBallot is an independent, free forecast of the 2026 U.S. elections: every Senate, House and governor race and 88 state legislative chambers, with each number traceable to the polls, fundamentals and simulations behind it. Every forecast is archived the day it is published and timestamped outside the site, so a claim about what it said can be checked. The model and its record on past elections, including every wrong call, are published in full.
How to cite
FutureBallot, "page title," futureballot.com, forecast as of date, URL.
A forecast changes daily, so the date matters. Each page shows its forecast date under the title, and the Election receipts page shows how a statement compares with the forecast current when it was made.
The method in one screen
- Polls are read from each pollster's own release where one exists, checked share by share, and every poll on the Polls page says whether it was checked.
- A statewide race combines a polling average with fundamentals (the seat's history, the national environment, incumbency) in a model whose every term is published in the Methodology.
- The House forecast is built district by district from the same inputs and labelled a research model until its independent review is done.
- Chamber control comes from simulated elections that move the races together, so a polling miss in one state is a miss in its neighbours too.
- The record on past elections is on the Accuracy page, scored by the same rule before each cycle, with every wrong call listed.
Images and reuse
The maps, charts and tables on this site may be reproduced with attribution to FutureBallot and a link to the page they came from. Every page carries a link-preview image with its current numbers, so a shared link shows the forecast as it stood.
Embed a forecast
Every race page has an "Embed this forecast" block with one line of HTML to paste: a small card with the race's two chances, the expected margin and the forecast's date, in the site's colours, linking back to the page. It updates with the forecast, loads no script and sets no cookie. The card for the Iowa Senate race, for example: see it on its own.
Contact
Reporters: contact@futureballot.com. Corrections are welcome and are recorded on the Model health page.