Data

Today's forecasts as files, and the fingerprints of every sealed forecast

Today's forecasts

Refreshed with every publish of the site. Each row is the forecast a page shows: the same race, the same numbers, the same run. Races the site withholds are left out here too.

• forecasts.json: every race and chamber, both products (election day and nowcast), with the run and model behind each.
• races.csv: one row per race and product. win_prob_subject and expected_margin are for the named candidate (subject); a negative margin means that candidate trails. margin_q05 to margin_q95 is the 90% interval.
• chambers.csv: the House, Senate and governors, with the chance of Democratic control (a range where an independent's caucus is unrecorded) and expected seats.

Please credit FutureBallot (futureballot.com) when you use them.

Sealed forecasts

Every day the full forecast is sealed: written to a file whose SHA-256 fingerprint is recorded in the project's database, archived by content and committed to its repository. The forecast scored in November is the last one sealed before Election Day, under rules written down beforehand (accuracy).

The fingerprints are public now; the files will be published here after Election Day. Then anyone can download a file, run sha256sum on it, and check it matches the fingerprint listed below on the date shown: proof that the forecast being scored is the one sealed beforehand, not one adjusted afterwards. The files are held back until then because a sealed file contains every stored row, including races the site withholds, and editing a file would break its fingerprint.

22 sealed files.