Hawaii House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
51 of 51 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 43 seats after November (80% range 41–46) and Republicans 8 (5–10). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matthias Kusch (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | Susan Keohokapu Lee Loy (D), Jonathan Kennealy (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 3 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Christopher Todd (D), Austin Martin (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 4 | Forecast | Greggor Ilagan (D), Zak Wittenhagen (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 5 | Forecast | Jeanne Kapela (D), Dalene McCormick (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kirstin Kahaloa (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nicole Lowen (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Forecast | David Tarnas (D), Monique Perreira (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justin H. Woodson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Forecast | Tyson Miyake (D), Travis Bumanglag (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 11 | Forecast | Terez Amato (D), Sheila Walker (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 12 | Forecast | Kyle Yamashita (D), Dan Johnson (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 13 | Forecast | Mahina Poepoe (D), Robin D. Vanderpool (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 14 | Forecast | Sne Patel (D), Elle Cochran (R), Pa‘ele Kiakona (Green) | 90% | news guide |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nadine K. Nakamura (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | Luke Evslin (D), David Hazlebeck (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 17 | Forecast | Daynette (Dee) Morikawa (D), Misty Cluett (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 18 | Forecast | James Wataru (D), Joe Gedeon (R) | 5% | news guide |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark Jun Hashem (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Forecast | Tina Nakada Grandinetti (D), David Asing (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Derek Turbin (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew Takuya Garrett (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Forecast | Ikaika Olds (D), Victor Muh (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adrian Tam (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kim Coco Iwamoto (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26 | Forecast | Ian Ross (D), Tony Silva (R) | 95% | news guide |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jenna W.y.c. Takenouchi (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Ratcliffe (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Forecast | Ikaika Hussey (D), Tess Abalos (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 30 | Forecast | Shirley Ann Templo (D), Amanda Ybanez (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 31 | Forecast | Linda Ichiyama (D), Nancy Valdez (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 32 | Forecast | Micah Pookela Kim Aiu (D), Garner Shimizu (R) | 45% | news guide |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sam Satoru Kong (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | Forecast | Gregg Takayama (D), Gaius Dupio II (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cory M. Chun (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 36 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daisy Balais Hartsfield (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Trish La Chica (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lauren Cheape Matsumoto (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Corey Rosenlee (D), Daniel (Danny) De Gracia (R) | 67% | news guide |
| 40 | Forecast | Rose Martinez (D), Julie Reyes Oda (R) | 26% | news guide |
| 41 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David A. Alcos (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 42 | Forecast | Anthony Makana Paris (D), Diamond Garcia (R) | 8% | news guide |
| 43 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kanani Souza (R) | news guide | |
| 44 | Forecast | Darius Kila (D), Charla (Kahealani) Weaver (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 45 | Forecast | Kalehua Kaopua (D), Chris Muraoka (R) | 35% | news guide |
| 46 | Forecast | Amy Perruso (D), Daniel Michael Gabriel (R) | 99% | news guide |
| 47 | Forecast | Sean Quinlan (D), Mark Talaeai (R) | 99% | news guide |
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa C. Kitagawa (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 49 | Forecast | Scot Matayoshi (D), ‘Ale Rodas (R) | >99% | news guide |
| 50 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Mike Lee (D), Jesse W.m. Fitzgerald (Green) | news guide | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa Marten (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |