South Carolina House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
63seats for a majority, of 124
124 of 124 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 39 seats after November (80% range 34–44) and Republicans 85 (80–90). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Bill Whitmire (R), Jasmine Williams (D) | 3% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Christopher Damian Des Marais (Libertarian), Adam Duncan (R), Candace Schutt (D) | 3% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Phillip Bowers (R), Claiborne Linvill (D) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Clay Counts (R), Derrick Kruse (D) | 2% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Neal Collins (R), David F Jones (D) | 2% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Jennifer Bachner (D), April Cromer (R) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Elizabeth W Cooley (D), Lee Gilreath (R) | 2% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Demetrius Carson (D), Don Chapman (R) | 3% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Johnny Estrich (D), Blake Sanders (R) | 3% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Thomas Beach (R), Thomas Stewart (D) | 2% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Jessica Beasley (D), Craig Gagnon (R), E T Stone (United Citizens) | 2% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Jumelle Brooks (D), Daniel Gibson (R) | 30% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | John McCravy (R), C Rauch Wise (D) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Henry D Jones (United Citizens), Rick Shealy (R), Michanna Tate (D) | 5% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Melissa Couture (Libertarian), Heather Hickman (R), Ja Moore (D) | 98% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Lynn Ramirez (D), Mark N Willis (R) | 5% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Mike Burns (R), Rich Nicoloff (D) | 2% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Virginia B Maclure (D), Alan Morgan (R) | 3% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Patrick B Haddon (R), Rachel Smith (D) | 5% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Polly Elbertse (D), Stephen D Frank (R) | <1% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Dianne Mitchell (R), Dexter Reaves (D) | 4% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Josh Kendrick (D), Paul Wickensimer (R) | 2% | official |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chandra Dillard (D) | official | |
| 24 | Forecast | Caroline Avinger (D), Bruce Bannister (R) | 2% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Wendell Jones (D) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Jenny Desch (D), Kiral Mace (Workers), David W Martin (R) | 1% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | John MacCarthy (D), David Vaughan (R) | 2% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Alan G Buckalew (D), Chris Huff (R) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Marina Franco (D), Dennis Moss (R) | 3% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Stephanie Holstein (D), Brian Lawson (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Rosalyn Henderson-Myers (D), James A Jones Sr. (United Citizens) | official | |
| 32 | Forecast | Irene Benson (D), Scott Montgomery (R) | 5% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Travis A Moore (R), Clemson G Turregano (D) | <1% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Sarita Edgerton (R), Saville Williams (D) | 5% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Bill Chumley (R), Tatiana Skipper (D) | 5% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Rob Harris (R), Virginia McLean (D) | 3% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Steven Long (R), Seth Sauer-Hart (D) | 4% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Tammy Hahn (D), Josiah Magnuson (R) | <1% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Cally R Cal Forrest (R), Sherman Lott (D) | 2% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Engle Thompson (D), Joe White (R) | 3% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Tibi Czentye (R), Annie E McDaniel (D) | 99% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Doug Gilliam (R), Robert Larry Williams (D) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Alex Clark (D), Randy Ligon (R) | 4% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Katie Crosby (D), Mike Neese (R) | 2% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Brandon Newton (R), Nicole Ventour (D) | <1% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Omar L McCrorey (D), Heath Sessions (R) | 3% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Justin Bennett (D), Tommy Pope (R) | 3% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Brandon Guffey (R), Rustin Terry (D) | 5% | official |
| 49 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John R King (D) | official | |
| 50 | Forecast | William Oden (R), Keishan M Scott (D) | 98% | official |
| 51 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Weeks (D) | official | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Malcolm Taylor (D) | official | |
| 53 | Forecast | Bruce M Wallace (D), Richard Richie Yow (R) | <1% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason Luck (D) | official | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jackie Hayes (D) | official | |
| 56 | Forecast | Tim McGinnis (R), Jacqualyn Meadow (D) | 3% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Lucas Atkinson (R), Cynthia O Ford (D) | 96% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Jeff Johnson (R), Sha-Ron E Jones (D) | 3% | official |
| 59 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Terry Alexander (D) | official | |
| 60 | Forecast | Adrian Peguese Carter (D), Phillip Lowe (R) | 4% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Carol Goodman (D), David Herndon (Libertarian), Carla Schuessler (R) | 4% | official |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert Williams (D) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Kory Haskins (D), Jay Jordan (R) | <1% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Michele Demery (D), Fawn Pedalino (R) | 11% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Tanisha Baskin (D), Cody T Mitchell (R) | 3% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Heather Hart (D), Jackie Terribile (R) | 7% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Lisa Davey (D), Murrell Smith (R) | 8% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | Heather Ammons Crawford (R), Judy Davies (D) | 3% | official |
| 69 | Forecast | Allen Broadus (Libertarian), Emery K Chaplin (D), Chris Wooten (R) | 4% | official |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert Reese (D) | official | |
| 71 | Forecast | Nathan Ballentine (R), Julie Zimmerman (D) | 7% | official |
| 72 | Forecast | Dixie Kvatek (R), Seth Rose (D) | 99% | official |
| 73 | Forecast | Chris Hart (D), Allen Robertson (R) | 99% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | J Todd Rutherford (D), Collin Shelton (R) | >99% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Heather Bauer (D), Joshua Parks (Libertarian), Tracy Robins (R) | 94% | official |
| 76 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leon Howard (D) | official | |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kambrell Houston Garvin (D) | official | |
| 78 | Forecast | Beth Bernstein (D), Angelo Joyner Sr. (Libertarian), Sonia Pollard (R) | 99% | official |
| 79 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hamilton R Grant (D) | official | |
| 80 | Forecast | Benjamin E Brown (D), Kathy Landing (R) | 1% | official |
| 81 | Forecast | Charles Hartz (R), Pete Swales (D) | <1% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | William Bill Clyburn (D), Suzy Spurgeon (R) | 89% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Bill Hixon (R), Jason Payne (D) | 5% | official |
| 84 | Forecast | Darnell Holston (D), Melissa Oremus (R) | 4% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Steven J Asbill Jr. (D), Jay Kilmartin (R) | 5% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Malcolm Green (D), Tommy Paradise (R) | 5% | official |
| 87 | Forecast | Reid Beaman (D), Paula Rawl Calhoon (R) | 3% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Jeremy Jones (D), John Lastinger (R) | 4% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | Micah Caskey (R), Joe Madge (D) | 2% | official |
| 90 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justin Bamberg (D) | official | |
| 91 | Forecast | Daniel Alexander (R), Lonnie Hosey (D) | 78% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | Brandon Cox (R), Byron Walters (D) | 7% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Jerry Govan (D), Alex Morris (R) | 92% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Gil Gatch (R), Sally Hebert (D) | 6% | official |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gilda Cobb-Hunter (D) | official | |
| 96 | Forecast | Vivian Elston (D), Hunter Hackett (R) | 4% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Cathy A Jaggars (D), Robby Robbins (R) | 4% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Greg Ford (R), Sonja Ogletree Satani (D) | 7% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Jarrod Brooks (R), Samuel Price (D) | 7% | official |
| 100 | Forecast | Crystal Y Campbell (D), Sylleste Davis (R) | 5% | official |
| 101 | Forecast | Arnie Borowsky (R), Roger K Kirby (D) | 99% | official |
| 102 | Forecast | Montez Aiken (D), Harriet Holman (R) | 32% | official |
| 103 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carl Anderson (D) | official | |
| 104 | Forecast | William Bailey (R), George M Blumenthal (D) | 3% | official |
| 105 | Forecast | Kevin Hardee (R), David Wilson (D) | 4% | official |
| 106 | Forecast | Val Guest (R), Marisa McCann (D) | 3% | official |
| 107 | Forecast | Case Brittain (R), Christine Giguere (D) | 4% | official |
| 108 | Forecast | Lee Hewitt (R), Kathy Redwine (D) | 4% | official |
| 109 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tiffany Spann-Wilder (D) | official | |
| 110 | Forecast | Kj Atwood (D), Tom Hartnett (R) | 10% | official |
| 111 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Wendell G Gilliard (D) | official | |
| 112 | Forecast | Jenna Arsenault (D), Joe Bustos (R) | 2% | official |
| 113 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Courtney Waters (D) | official | |
| 114 | Forecast | Gary Brewer (R), Kelly Hough (D) | 2% | official |
| 115 | Forecast | Johnnie Garmon (R), Nick Uricchio (D) | 79% | official |
| 116 | Forecast | Clay Middleton (D), James E Teeple (R) | 39% | official |
| 117 | Forecast | Jordan Pace (R), Ashley Painter (D) | 5% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Bill Herbkersman (R), Bernie Scolaro (D) | <1% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Lee Edwards (R), Leon Stavrinakis (D) | 93% | official |
| 120 | Forecast | Weston Newton (R), Debbie Subera-Wiggin (D) | <1% | official |
| 121 | Forecast | Shannon N DeLoach (D), Shelley Gay Yuhas (R) | 97% | official |
| 122 | Forecast | Bill Hager (R), Korey Williams (D) | 21% | official |
| 123 | Forecast | Jeff Bradley (R), Ann C Shippy (D) | 3% | official |
| 124 | Forecast | Shauna Bishop (D), Shannon Erickson (R) | 1% | official |