Michigan House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
36%chance of a Democratic majority
56%chance of a Republican majority
8%chance neither party has a majority
56seats for a majority, of 110
110 of 110 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 54 seats after November (80% range 48–61) and Republicans 56 (49–62). Neither party wins a majority in 8% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 55 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Tyrone Carter (D), Valerie Whittaker (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast | Joanna Whaley (D), Ron Kokinda (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Alabas Farhat (D), Gus Tarraf (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Regina Ross (D), Everett Davis (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast | Candace Calloway (D), Chris Venable (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Forecast | Melanie Macey (D), Mike Steger (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Tonya Myers Phillips (D), Reginald Moorer (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Chris Gilmer-Hill (D), Bruce P. Langran (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Willie Burton (D), Michele Lundgren (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast | Veronica Paiz (D), Peter Ochs (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast | Kimberly Fisher (D), Matthew Stafford (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Forecast | Kimberly L. Edwards (D), Randell J. Shafer (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast | Mai Xiong (D), Mark Thomas Foster (R) | 92% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Mike McFall (D), Larry Szyska (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Jalal Abdallah (D), Hassan H. Nehme (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Stephanie A. Young (D), Brian M. Duggan (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Laurie Pohutsky (D), Ken Crider (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Kelly Garrett (D), Ryan Foster (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Samantha Steckloff (D), Kevin J. Hammer (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | Noah Arbit (D), S. David Sullivan (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Kelly Breen (D), Ross Barranco (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Lisa McIntyre (D), Casey J. Noce (R) | 83% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | Jason Morgan (D), Miriam Corvino (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Ranjeev Puri (D), Allison Kay Fuller (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Peter Herzberg (D), Dawn Udell (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Dylan Wegela (D), Chris Dobis (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Jaime Churches (D), Rylee Linting (R) | 31% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Sherry A. Berecz (D), Jamie Thompson (R) | 17% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Darian Counts (D), James DeSana (R) | 15% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Omar G. Ferdin (D), William Bruck (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Shannon Dare Wayne (D), Laura M. Perry (R) | 72% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Jimmie Wilson (D), Mike Eller (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Forecast | Morgan Foreman (D), Catherine Rogers (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nancy Jenkins-Arno (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 35 | Forecast | Jeff Cooley (D), Jennifer Wortz (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Cole Slaski (D), Steve Carra (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Angela M. Jones (D), Brad Paquette (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Joey Andrews (D), Mark Krieger (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Forecast | Kerry Tapper (D), Pauline Wendzel (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Forecast | Matt Longjohn (D), Robert M. Sitarski (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Jen Strebs (D), Nicole C. Sabel (R), Rafael Wolf (Libertarian) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Nick Rowe (D), Matt Hall (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Forecast | Alan Swank (D), Rachelle Smit (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | Jim Haadsma (D), Steve Frisbie (R) | 49% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Randy Davis (D), Sarah Lightner (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Jan Maino (D), Kathy Schmaltz (R) | 33% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Carrie A. Rheingans (D), Justin Griffis (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Jennifer A. Conlin (D), Brian Ignatowski (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Dan Pelchat (D), Ann M. Bollin (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Forecast | Cassie Canedo (D), Jason Woolford (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | Forecast | Stacey McDuffie (D), Matt Maddock (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 52 | Forecast | Brendan P. Leddy (D), Mike Harris (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Brenda Carter (D), Melissa Schultz (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Forecast | Sarah Pounds (D), Roman Gaskey (R) | 48% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 55 | Forecast | Alex Hawkins (D), Mark Tisdel (R) | 21% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 56 | Forecast | Sharon MacDonell (D), Ashok Baddi (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Forecast | Tom Turner (D), Thomas E. Kuhn (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 58 | Forecast | Katrina Manetta (D), Ron Robinson (R) | 25% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 59 | Forecast | Jason Robbins (D), Sylvia Grot (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 60 | Forecast | Amy Gray (D), Joseph Aragona (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | Denise Mentzer (D), Robert Wojtowicz (R) | 85% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | Matthew Smith (D), Alicia St. Germaine (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Forecast | Jamie Sonneberger (D), Pamela Hornberger (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Forecast | Ken Heuvelman (D), Joseph G. Pavlov (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | James M. O'Brien (D), Jaime Greene (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Ned Zimmer (D), Josh Schriver (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Forecast | Leslie Getz (D), Phil Green (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | Forecast | Matt Schlinker (D), David W. Martin (R) | 17% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | Jasper Ryan Martus (D), Patrick Duvendeck (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | Cynthia R. Neeley (D), Larry Hutchinson (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Stephen Schlaack (D), Brian BeGole (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Forecast | Thomas Ryan (D), Mike Mueller (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 73 | Forecast | Julie Brixie (D), Joshua Jon Rockey (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Harold A. Pope (D), Clinton Tarver (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Forecast | Penelope Tsernoglou (D), Frank Lambert (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Forecast | Angela Witwer (D), Bill Kaiser (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | Emily Dievendorf (D), Sally Jo Nelton (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Forecast | Rachel Gross (D), Brandon L. Strong (R), Ben DeJong (Libertarian) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Forecast | Zach Abbott (D), Angela Rigas (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 80 | Forecast | Lily Cheng-Schulting (D), Doug Lee (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Forecast | Stephen Wooden (D), Holly DeBoer (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 82 | Forecast | Kristian C. Grant (D), Ryan Malinoski (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 83 | Forecast | John Fitzgerald (D), Cindy Ramirez (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Forecast | Khristian Silvis (D), Drew Jake Robbins (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 85 | Forecast | Richard Abraham (D), Bradley Slagh (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Forecast | Joseph McClusky (D), Nancy DeBoer (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 87 | Forecast | Will Snyder (D), Cody A. Chipman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 88 | Forecast | Kiel Reid (D), Greg VanWoerkom (R) | 8% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 89 | Forecast | Meegan Zickus (D), Joe Moss (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 90 | Forecast | Rachel Crowther (D), Lynn Afendoulis (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 91 | Forecast | Frank Lafata (D), Pat Outman (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 92 | Forecast | Luke Del Castillo (D), Jerry Neyer (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 93 | Forecast | Serenity Hope Salak (D), Tim Kelly (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 94 | Forecast | Amos O'Neal (D), Don Sugg (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 95 | Forecast | AnnMarie Horseman (D), Bill G. Schuette (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 96 | Forecast | Christopher R. Girard (D), Timothy Beson (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 97 | Forecast | Jack Bader (D), Briar Bearss (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 98 | Forecast | Keith Brusseau (D), Gregory L. Alexander (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 99 | Forecast | David Forgione (D), Mike Hoadley (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 100 | Forecast | Tracy Ruell (D), Tom Kunse (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 101 | Forecast | Christopher R. Crain (D), Jaxon Deur (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 102 | Forecast | Angel Coon (D), Curt Vanderwall (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 103 | Forecast | Betsy Coffia (D), Edwin B. Dean (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 104 | Forecast | Mitchell Ryan Distin (D), John R. Roth (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 105 | Forecast | Rachel Longendyke Teeter (D), Ken Borton (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 106 | Forecast | Mary Lucille Hamilton (D), Cam Cavitt (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 107 | Forecast | Melissa Perron (D), Parker Fairbairn (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 108 | Forecast | Rachel M. Keys (D), Larry Johnson (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 109 | Forecast | Anna Aho Rink (D), Karl Bohnak (R) | 36% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 110 | Forecast | Brian Irizarry (D), Gregory Markkanen (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |