Jim Ellis on the 2024 Virginia Senate race
“As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultTim Kaine (D) won, 54.4% to 45.4%.
Election receipts
What they said. What the votes said.
In one screen
- A receipt is a dated statement, word for word, beside the official result; no marks, no rankings.
- 16 statements about November 3 await the result; 213 from past elections already have theirs.
- Each was checked against a saved copy of the original before it appeared; FutureBallot's own forecasts are shown by the same rule.
What people said before an election, word for word, with the date and a link to where they said it, beside the official result. No marks, no scores and no rankings: read the two and judge for yourself. Each receipt was checked against a saved copy of the original before it was published, and FutureBallot's own forecasts are shown by the same rule, as published. Last added October 18, 2026; new statements are collected daily and each is checked by hand before it appears.
One receipt, complete: the words with their date and source, what they claim, and the official result with its source. Each 2026 statement below will look like this once the votes are counted.
Before the votes: 2026
Said this year about the November 3 election. Each will show the official result once the votes are counted. Under each is FutureBallot's own call on the same contest as it stood when the words were said, or its first published call where that came later, and the newest.
Larry Sabato on control of the House in 2026
“It almost certainly will produce a democratic majority of some size.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 11 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Larry Sabato on the 2026 Michigan Senate race
“we still think that El-Sayed will win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 11 days after this was said: a 60% chance for Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat. Newest, October 21, 2026: 68%.
Larry Sabato on the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race
“There's just too much evidence that the Democrat, Chris Pappas is likely to win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 11 days after this was said: an 83% chance for Chris Pappas, the Democrat. Newest, October 21, 2026: 88%.
David Urban on control of the Senate in 2026
“I think Republicans will hold the Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 12 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
Harry Enten on control of the Senate in 2026
“Now, Democrats are absolutely favored to take back the Senate. Of course, it's still September.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 15 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
Sarah Longwell on control of the Senate in 2026
“I do think Republicans will lose the Senate”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 17 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
David Urban on control of the House in 2026
“if they do in fact win the House, which it looks like it's going to happen.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 45 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Doug Heye on the 2026 North Carolina Senate race
“And my home state of North Carolina, it's more likely than not that we'll see that flip from Republican hands to Democratic hands.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 50 days after this was said: a 92% chance for Roy Cooper, the Democrat. Newest, October 21, 2026: 95%.
Larry Sabato on the 2026 Wyoming Senate race
“Well, Democrats are going to lose everything in Wyoming.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 52 days after this was said: a <1% chance for James W. Byrd, the Democrat. Unchanged as of October 21, 2026.
Doug Heye on control of the House in 2026
“So, if Democrats retake the House, as I expect they will, you guys, good luck.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 53 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Bill Kristol on control of the House in 2026
“Republicans are almost certain to lose the House this fall, and the Senate majority is up for grabs.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 68 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Jonah Goldberg on control of the Senate in 2026
“I don't think the Democrats are going to take back the Senate, but it's possible for sure.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 72 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
Alyssa Farah Griffin on control of the House in 2026
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the House is going to flip.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 73 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Harry Enten on control of the House in 2026
“The House is still very much in jeopardy, most likely going to flip to Democrats.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 78 days after this was said: a 94% chance of Democrats winning a House majority. Newest, October 21, 2026: 80%.
Harry Enten on control of the Senate in 2026
“The Senate, more likely than not to be held by Republicans, but still a chance to Democrats.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 78 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
David Chalian on control of the Senate in 2026
“a battle for Senate control that I still think is Republican advantage in the cycle, but that is up for grabs.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAwaiting the votes on November 3, 2026.
FutureBallotAs published on October 10, 2026, its first published call, 85 days after this was said: a 37–45% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate. Newest, October 21, 2026: 53–61%.
Past elections
2024
Scott Jennings on the 2024 West Virginia Senate race
“U.S. Senate, obviously, West Virginia is going to go Republican”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJim Justice (R) won, 68.8% to 27.8%.
Larry Sabato on the 2024 presidential race in Virginia
“It's one of the reasons Trump is going to Virginia, my state, on Saturday, which he is not going to win and just came out of New Mexico, which he is not going to win”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKamala Harris (D) carried Virginia.
James (The Ephemeric) on control of the Senate in 2024
“The Ephemeric predicts Kamala Harris to win the Presidency, the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans to take control of the Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won control, 53-47.
Mark Halperin on the 2024 presidential election
“Which is to say, Trump has the better hand here at the end.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Dana Bash on the 2024 presidential race in Texas
“But to be clear, Texas is not up for grabs on the presidential level.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) carried Texas.
Gloria Borger on the 2024 Missouri Senate race
“I mean, in Missouri, for example, you know, Josh Hawley is likely to win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJosh Hawley (R) won, 55.6% to 41.8%.
Jake Tapper on the 2024 presidential race in Texas
“Vice President Harris is in Houston, Texas tonight. News flash, she's not going to win Texas.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) carried Texas.
Harry Enten on control of the Senate in 2024
“Look, Republicans are favored in the Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won control, 53-47.
Harry Enten on control of the House in 2024
“Democrats might have a slight edge in the House”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 220 seats.
Frank Luntz on the 2024 presidential election
“Trump basically has reached the ceiling of his vote and it's enough for him to win. Let me be clear about that.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Mark McKinnon on the 2024 presidential election
“I think Kamala Harris is going to win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race
“we can also expect Sen. Baldwin to return for another term.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTammy Baldwin (D) won, 49.3% to 48.5%.
Larry Sabato on the 2024 presidential race in North Dakota
“Trump's chances in California are about the equivalent of Kamala Harris's chances in North and South Dakota. That is zero.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) carried North Dakota.
Scott Jennings on control of the Senate in 2024
“I think the Senate's already done, but I think the House is really a tossup.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won control, 53-47.
Simon Rosenberg on control of the House in 2024
“The House is likely to flip.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 220 seats.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race
“This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDave McCormick (R) won, 48.8% to 48.6%.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Virginia Senate race
“As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultTim Kaine (D) won, 54.4% to 45.4%.
Chris Weigant on control of the Senate in 2024
“The likelihood is that the Republicans will wind up controlling the chamber, and with Mitch McConnell stepping down as their leader, they'll have a whole new power structure if they do secure control.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won control, 53-47.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Indiana Senate race
“Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJim Banks (R) won, 58.6% to 38.8%.
Dick Morris on the 2024 Montana Senate race
“Republicans will supplement their in-the-pocket pick up in West Virginia with an increasingly likely win in Montana.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTim Sheehy (R) won, 52.6% to 45.5%.
Scott Jennings on the 2024 West Virginia Senate race
“West Virginia's done, Montana looks good for Republicans, Ohio's been trending, and they might have 51 or 52.”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultJim Justice (R) won, 68.8% to 27.8%.
Scott Jennings on control of the Senate in 2024
“Republicans are about to take over the U.S. Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won control, 53-47.
Bill Kristol on the 2024 presidential election
“I’m now inclined to upgrade “Trump may well have lost his chance for a second term,” to “Trump most likely lost his chance for a second term.””
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race
“The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDave McCormick (R) won, 48.8% to 48.6%.
Allan Lichtman on the 2024 presidential election
“Kamala Harris will be president of the United States.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Jim Ellis on the 2024 Massachusetts Senate race
“Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultElizabeth Warren (D) won, 59.8% to 40.0%.
Scott Jennings on the 2024 presidential election
“So, I still think Democrats have reason for optimism, but I wouldn't overdo it because Donald Trump right now -- I still think he's the favorite.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 312-226 in the Electoral College.
Scott Jennings on the 2024 Montana Senate race
“Montana is an important place because it's going to be the Senate race that gives Republicans control of the U.S. Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTim Sheehy (R) won, 52.6% to 45.5%.
Larry Sabato on the 2024 presidential race in Florida
“And if there's one state that Trump is guaranteed to carry already, it's Florida.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) carried Florida.
Harry Enten on the 2024 Texas Senate race
“And the best Dem pickup chance perhaps to reverse that so the GOP doesn't gain - net gain of at least one, is Texas, but that's still a likely GOP win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 53.0% to 44.6%.
Harry Enten on the 2024 West Virginia Senate race
“That's a very likely GOP win with Joe Manchin retiring.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJim Justice (R) won, 68.8% to 27.8%.
2022
Dick Morris on the 2022 North Carolina Senate race
“In Pennsylvania (Oz), Ohio (Vance), Wisconsin (Johnson), and North Carolina (Budd), the Republican is likely to win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTed Budd (R) won, 50.5% to 47.3%.
Marc Short on control of the Senate in 2022
“I think we pick up the Senate, and I actually think we're going to win a couple governor's mansions, and so I think it's going to be a very big night for Republicans.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats kept control, 51-49.
Chris Christie on the 2022 race in NY-17
“I campaigned for Mike Lawler against Sean Patrick Mahoney. He’s going to lose. And he’s probably going to lose by five or six points.”
The contextSarah Isgur, a moment earlier on the same panel: “those races in New York, the governor and the House races, where you could have the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lose his seat.” That committee's chair was Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democrat in NY-17 (the transcript spells him Mahoney); the “he” who was going to lose is Maloney.
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultMike Lawler (R) won, 50.3% to 49.7%.
Jerome Armstrong on the 2022 Arizona Senate race
“Kelly is right at 48%, so this will be very close. I’ll go with the R’s having the momentum.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultMark Kelly (D) won, 51.4% to 46.5%.
Paul Begala on control of the House in 2022
“First off, it does look more likely than not that the House is swing Republican, they only have to gain five seats, and the average historically is over 30.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Jake Tapper on control of the House in 2022
“I have to say, whatever you feel about Republicans taking back the House, which seems likely, perhaps as a comedian, you're looking forward to it?”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Scott Jennings on control of the House in 2022
“I think the House is done, I think Republicans are going to have a huge night.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
James (The Ephemeric) on control of the House in 2022
“The Ephemeric predicts the Republican Party to retake the House of Representatives and the Democratic Party to hold the Senate”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Jake Tapper on control of the House in 2022
“In less than two weeks, the balance of power, in Congress, should see a major shift, with Republicans in control of the agenda, on the House floor.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Dick Morris on the 2022 Georgia Senate race
“Since Walker leads among whites with more than 60 percent of the vote (and gets 20 percent of blacks), the runoff edge would seem to be Walker’s.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRaphael Warnock (D) won, 51.4% to 48.6%.
Mark Halperin on the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race
“in this case, I would say what happened will cost Fetterman the seat.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJohn Fetterman (D) won, 51.2% to 46.3%.
Larry Sabato on control of the House in 2022
“Too early to call things definitively, but I think the Republicans are clear favorites for the House.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Nathan Gonzales on the 2022 Iowa Senate race
“We moved the Iowa Senate race where Senator Chuck Grassley is running for reelection from solid Republican to likely Republican, and it might be a little bit surprising.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultChuck Grassley (R) won, 56.0% to 43.8%.
Harry Enten on the 2022 Florida Senate race
“So, the Republican candidate, Marco Rubio is going to win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMarco Rubio (R) won, 57.7% to 41.3%.
Jim Ellis on the 2022 Oklahoma Senate race
“Both Sen. Lankford and Rep. Mullin are heavy favorites to win in November.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJames Lankford (R) won, 64.3% to 32.1%.
Alyssa Farah Griffin on the 2022 New Hampshire Senate race
“So, Bolduc, the Republican nominee for Senate now is almost certainly going to lose to Maggie Hassan, a fairly popular Democrat in a seat that was winnable.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMaggie Hassan (D) won, 53.5% to 44.4%.
Dick Morris on control of the Senate in 2022
“The Republicans will win both houses of Congress in 2022 and the resulting shock will force Biden to announce that he’s not going to run again in 2024.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats kept control, 51-49.
Dick Morris on control of the House in 2022
“The Republicans will win both houses of Congress in 2022”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
John King on the 2022 Ohio Senate race
“Ohio, J. D. Vance is the Republican nominee, he should be favored in this race.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJD Vance (R) won, 53.0% to 46.9%.
Nathan Gonzales on control of the House in 2022
“But I think Republicans because they need so few it's that that net gain of five that they will still get there.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
John King on control of the House in 2022
“If you look at today, the Democrats have a three-point lead. Is that enough to keep control of the House? Probably not.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Jessica Taylor on control of the House in 2022
“Now, again, I think the House is far more likely to flip at this point, but in Senate races, they are -- candidates matter more.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Scott Jennings on control of the House in 2022
“I mean, look, let's be honest, this is the difference between a 30-seat Republican majority and a 28-seat Republican majority. I mean, that's how I see it.”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
David Chalian on control of the House in 2022
“Which is not to say that Republicans are not still favored to win the House of Representatives. I want to be clear about that. They are!”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Van Jones on control of the House in 2022
“The Republicans are likely to get the House at least, if not the House and the Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 222 seats.
2020
John Hinderaker on the 2020 presidential election
“I think President Trump will be re-elected, and I think the Republicans will hold the Senate, narrowly.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
James (The Ephemeric) on the 2020 Alabama Senate race
“But Democrats are almost certain to lose a seat in Alabama, where incumbent Doug Jones only eked out his unlikely victory by merit of being up against an accused pedophile (and even that was narrow).”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTommy Tuberville (R) won, 60.1% to 39.7%.
James (The Ephemeric) on control of the Senate in 2020
“The Ephemeric predicts Joe Biden to win the Presidency and the Democrats to hold the House of Representatives and retake the Senate”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won control, 50-50 with the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.
Bill Kristol on the 2020 presidential election
“Since it now seems likely that Donald Trump will follow in these three one-term presidents’ footsteps, let’s take a quick look at their defeats.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
David Chalian on the 2020 Alabama Senate race
“here in Alabama, Doug Jones, the incumbent, he's in a really tough race and is likely to lose to Tommy Tuberville.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTommy Tuberville (R) won, 60.1% to 39.7%.
Allahpundit on the 2020 Nebraska Senate race
“Ben Sasse, whose reelection is so assured in deep red Nebraska that I’m prone to forgetting that his seat is up this year.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBen Sasse (R) won, 62.7% to 24.4%.
Fareed Zakaria on the 2020 presidential election
“Meanwhile, I will take my chances and once again predict that Donald Trump will lose this election.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
Harry Enten on the 2020 presidential race in Michigan
“in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nebraska's second congressional district, and Michigan it's pretty clear iden has the advantage.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) carried Michigan.
Harry Enten on the 2020 Maine Senate race
“But right now, Gideon is the favorite there.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultSusan Collins (R) won, 51.0% to 42.4%.
John King on control of the House in 2020
“Democrats look poised to add to their House majority, and they might make gains in key state legislatures.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 222 seats.
Harry Enten on the 2020 presidential election
“So the best way to describe this race in all honesty at this point, it's certainly lean Biden.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
Larry Sabato on the 2020 presidential race in North Carolina
“He had a narrow lead in North Carolina and it'll be a shock if Trump doesn't carry that in the end.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) carried North Carolina.
Mark Halperin on the 2020 presidential election
“Biden is still the favorite, with the debates pending.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
Larry Sabato on the 2020 presidential race in Pennsylvania
“Michigan and Pennsylvania are clearly leaning to Biden, and they're leaning in a way that makes me suspect that in the end it probably will carry.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) carried Pennsylvania.
John King on the 2020 presidential election
“Joe Biden now enters the final 100 days of the 2020 race as the clear favorite but with some giant tests just ahead”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
Michael Smerconish on the 2020 presidential election
“Is there a hidden Trump vote out there? I believe that there probably is but not enough for the margin by which he's trailing Joe Biden.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoe Biden (D) won the presidency, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
2018
Bakari Sellers on control of the House in 2018
“And that's where Democrats are going to take back the House.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Michigan Senate race
“James pulling the upset in Trump-friendly Michigan is a longer shot than Bob Menendez losing in Trump-hostile New Jersey.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDebbie Stabenow (D) won, 52.3% to 45.8%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2018 Nevada Senate race
“Democrats to pick up AZ and NV”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJacky Rosen (D) won, 50.4% to 45.4%.
Scott Erb on the 2018 Texas Senate race
“In Texas, spurred on strong Latino turnout Beto O’Rourke will surprise Ted Cruz, ending Cruz’s political career.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 50.9% to 48.3%.
Scott Erb on the 2018 North Dakota Senate race
“Surprises: Heidi Heitkamp shocks politicos by winning.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKevin Cramer (R) won, 55.1% to 44.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Arizona Senate race
“a Rosendale upset would be huge in offsetting Democratic pick-ups in Nevada and Arizona, both of which look to be more likely than not right now.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKyrsten Sinema (D) won, 50.0% to 47.6%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Texas Senate race
“I expect Cruz will hold on, but a 52/47 win in Texas will be a shockingly tight result against a Democrat who made no bones about his liberalism.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 50.9% to 48.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 New Jersey Senate race
“I absolutely believe that Menendez is a below-replacement-level Democrat whose sleaziness has made a gimme race competitive. I absolutely do not believe that he’s in real danger of losing.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBob Menendez (D) won, 54.0% to 42.8%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Nevada Senate race
“The fact that an unpopular incumbent has stayed so close with his Democratic opponent in the Senate race leads one to believe that Heller will win a very close race.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJacky Rosen (D) won, 50.4% to 45.4%.
John King on control of the House in 2018
“And that's why the Democrats are poised to retake the House.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Larry Sabato on control of the Senate in 2018
“those deeply red states that probably will allow the Republicans to keep the senate, maybe even add a seat or two.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans kept control, 53-47.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Texas Senate race
“Betomania’s not happening, although he might at least force Texas to count the votes before the pros call the race next Tuesday.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 50.9% to 48.3%.
Jake Tapper on control of the House in 2018
“I mean, he's trying to save the house. He's probably not going to be successful.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Michigan Senate race
“He make it closer and it may throw an election night scare into Stabenow, but I believe this seat will remain in the hands of a Democrat.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDebbie Stabenow (D) won, 52.3% to 45.8%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Wisconsin Senate race
“With Baldwin up an average of 11.8 points in the polls, a surprise Vukmir victory may be asking too much. Thus, this writer is putting this one in the Democratic column.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTammy Baldwin (D) won, 55.4% to 44.5%.
James (The Ephemeric) on control of the House in 2018
“The Ephemeric predicts the Democrats to retake the House of Representatives, and the Republicans to hold the Senate”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Texas Senate race
“Cruz looks like he’ll hold on in Texas”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 50.9% to 48.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Florida Senate race
“Here as in the Gillum/DeSantis race, given the sum of the polling you’d wager on the Democrat if you had to wager. But you wouldn’t wager much.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRick Scott (R) won, 50.0% to 49.9%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Texas Senate race
“O’Rourke will win the urban areas and may keep this race under 10%, but Cruz will be reelected.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultTed Cruz (R) won, 50.9% to 48.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 Tennessee Senate race
“Marsha Blackburn remains the favorite in Tennessee, although the last poll of that state had Democrat Phil Bredesen up a point.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMarsha Blackburn (R) won, 54.7% to 43.9%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 New Jersey Senate race
“This would be a huge surprise if Hugin wins and one I am not willing to believe will happen. Why? Because this is New Jersey.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBob Menendez (D) won, 54.0% to 42.8%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 New Mexico Senate race
“Hence, it is likely that Johnson and Rich will split some votes and Heinrich will breeze back to the Senate.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMartin Heinrich (D) won, 54.1% to 30.5%.
Allahpundit on the 2018 North Dakota Senate race
“Still, even if Heller falls short, Kevin Cramer’s all-but-certain victory in North Dakota over Heidi Heitkamp means we’ll still be looking at a 51/49 Senate with Democrats continuing to search for two pick-ups.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKevin Cramer (R) won, 55.1% to 44.3%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Minnesota Senate race
“Considering that according to the most recent results from Morning Consult Klobuchar has a 58% approval rating in the state, she is a shoo-in for reelection.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultAmy Klobuchar (D) won, 60.3% to 36.2%.
Dick Morris on the 2018 North Dakota Senate race
“North Dakota and Montana seem about ready to switch with Missouri not far behind.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKevin Cramer (R) won, 55.1% to 44.3%.
Streiff on the 2018 Michigan Senate race
“But he’s down by double digits to Debbie Stabenow and, barring a miraculous occurrence, he’s going to lose.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDebbie Stabenow (D) won, 52.3% to 45.8%.
Jim Ellis on the 2018 North Dakota Senate race
“At this writing, it appears that Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) will lose to at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck).”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKevin Cramer (R) won, 55.1% to 44.3%.
Streiff on the 2018 Montana Senate race
“Gut feeling says that this race is very, very close and that Tester is the favorite but that a Rosendale win should not be a shock.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJon Tester (D) won, 50.3% to 46.8%.
Sam Wang on control of the House in 2018
“And so Democrats seem likely to win the House but not necessarily.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Sam Wang on control of the Senate in 2018
“In the Senate it looks like it's going to be a pretty tough lift for Democrats to retake the Senate. The high water mark for them is going to be a 50/50 Senate.”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultRepublicans kept control, 53-47.
Davenj1 on the 2018 West Virginia Senate race
“At this point, one has to give it to Manchin, but by a more slim margin than originally thought, which necessitates revisiting the race at the end of this series with an update.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJoe Manchin (D) won, 49.6% to 46.3%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Washington Senate race
“Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell will face Susan Hutchinson for the GOP. It appears that Cantwell is headed back to DC with a likely double-digit Election Day victory.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMaria Cantwell (D) won, 58.4% to 41.6%.
Davenj1 on the 2018 Utah Senate race
“Mitt Romney will finally get to Washington as a Senator although he did not secure enough votes at the party convention and had to endure a primary that he handily won.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMitt Romney (R) won, 62.6% to 30.9%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2018 North Dakota Senate race
“Unless the polls are wrong, Heitkamp is going to lose.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKevin Cramer (R) won, 55.1% to 44.3%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2018 Nebraska Senate race
“Raybould has not mounted much of a campaign, Fischer will win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDeb Fischer (R) won, 57.7% to 38.6%.
Harry Enten on the 2018 Florida Senate race
“Although I still think that Bill Nelson is favored as that poll sort of indicates.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRick Scott (R) won, 50.0% to 49.9%.
Harry Enten on control of the House in 2018
“It is something in between a tossup and solidly Democratic. It is leaning Democratic you might say.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Symone Sanders on control of the House in 2018
“So, I think when Democrats take back the House, because I feel good about turnout for 2018, there will be I think a conversation that we'll have within the Democratic caucus.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDemocrats won the House majority, with 235 seats.
Nate Silver on control of the Senate in 2018
“Obviously a reasonably wide range there and I think they’re underdogs to take the Senate, although it’s competitive.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans kept control, 53-47.
2016
Cliston Brown on the 2016 presidential election
“Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the first woman to win the presidency tomorrow, decisively defeating Donald Trump in no small part due to unprecedented Latino turnout.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 304-227 in the Electoral College.
Chris Weigant on the 2016 presidential election
“Hillary Clinton -- 323 Electoral Votes”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultDonald Trump (R) won the presidency, 304-227 in the Electoral College.
Chris Weigant on the 2016 presidential race in New Mexico
“I think Clinton won't have any problems winning New Mexico tomorrow.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultHillary Clinton (D) carried New Mexico.
Harry Enten on the 2016 Colorado Senate race
“Bennet will almost certainly still win, but don’t be surprised if the race ends up closer than many once thought it would be.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMichael Bennet (D) won, 50.0% to 44.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race
“Ron Johnson also looks like a probable loser in Wisconsin, although he’s gamely made a race of it against Russ Feingold down the stretch.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRon Johnson (R) won, 50.2% to 46.8%.
Allahpundit on the 2016 Pennsylvania Senate race
“Pat Toomey increasingly looks like a goner in Pennsylvania, so scratch that one off.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultPat Toomey (R) won, 48.7% to 47.3%.
Allahpundit on the 2016 Illinois Senate race
“Kirk could have had the debate of his life and he’d almost certainly still lose next month.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTammy Duckworth (D) won, 54.9% to 39.8%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2016 Indiana Senate race
“The USS Trump has definitely hit an iceberg, and it seems unlikely that Republican Todd Young will avoid going down with the ship.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTodd Young (R) won, 52.1% to 42.4%.
Jim Ellis on the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race
“Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana all look like impending Democratic victories.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRon Johnson (R) won, 50.2% to 46.8%.
Harry Enten on control of the House in 2016
“Now, I should note that the Democrats are unlikely to retake the House.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 241 seats.
2014
Henry Olsen on the 2014 Iowa Senate race
“Seats Switching to GOP: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJoni Ernst (R) won, 52.1% to 43.8%.
Ed Morrissey on the 2014 South Dakota Senate race
“Three takeaways have been a lock for months — Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMike Rounds (R) won, 50.4% to 29.5%.
Ed Morrissey on the 2014 Louisiana Senate race
“Louisiana will go to a runoff for sure, but Landrieu won’t survive the challenge.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBill Cassidy (R) won, 55.9% to 44.1%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Tennessee Senate race
“Tennessee Lamar Alexander R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultLamar Alexander (R) won, 61.9% to 31.9%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Maine Senate race
“Maine Susan Collins R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultSusan Collins (R) won, 68.5% to 31.5%.
Allahpundit on the 2014 Colorado Senate race
“Oh, and I think Cory Gardner will hold off Mark Udall, thus averting my total nervous breakdown in real time for the amusement of Hot Air readers.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultCory Gardner (R) won, 48.2% to 46.3%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 New Mexico Senate race
“New Mexico Tom Udall D-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTom Udall (D) won, 55.6% to 44.4%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Kentucky Senate race
“Kentucky Mitch McConnell R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMitch McConnell (R) won, 56.2% to 40.7%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Nebraska Senate race
“Nebraska Ben Sasse R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBen Sasse (R) won, 64.3% to 31.5%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 South Carolina Senate race
“South Carolina Lindsey Graham R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultLindsey Graham (R) won, 54.3% to 38.8%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Mississippi Senate race
“Mississippi Thad Cochran R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultThad Cochran (R) won, 59.9% to 37.9%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Illinois Senate race
“Illinois Dick Durbin D-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDick Durbin (D) won, 53.5% to 42.7%.
Allahpundit on the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race
“Another prediction: Although some polls have Scott Brown within a point of Jeanne Shaheen or even leading, I think she’ll win comfortably by three points.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJeanne Shaheen (D) won, 51.5% to 48.2%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Oklahoma Senate race
“Oklahoma James Inhofe R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJim Inhofe (R) won, 68.0% to 28.6%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Delaware Senate race
“Delaware Chris Coons D-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultChris Coons (D) won, 55.8% to 42.2%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Massachusetts Senate race
“Massachusetts Ed Markey D-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultEd Markey (D) won, 61.9% to 38.0%.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Alabama Senate race
“Alabama Jeff Sessions R-Hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJeff Sessions (R) won.
The Alex Account on the 2014 Montana Senate race
“Montana Steve Daines R-Gain”
The claimWho wins.
The resultSteve Daines (R) won, 57.8% to 40.1%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Iowa Senate race
“Iowa – Bruce Braley over Joni Ernst by 2”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJoni Ernst (R) won, 52.1% to 43.8%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 North Carolina Senate race
“North Carolina – Kay Hagan over Thom Tillis by 4.5”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultThom Tillis (R) won, 48.8% to 47.3%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Michigan Senate race
“SAFE DEMOCRATS Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia”
The claimWho wins.
The resultGary Peters (D) won, 54.6% to 41.3%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Georgia Senate race
“Georgia – Michelle Nunn over David Perdue by 0.2% in a run off”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultDavid Perdue (R) won, 52.9% to 45.2%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Alaska Senate race
“Alaska – Mark Begich over Dan Sullivan by 1”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultDan Sullivan (R) won, 48.0% to 45.8%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Colorado Senate race
“Colorado – Mark Udall over Cory Gardner by 1”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultCory Gardner (R) won, 48.2% to 46.3%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Mississippi Senate race
“SAFE REPUBLICAN (asterix = pickup) Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Mississippi, Montana*, Nebraska, both Oklahoma races, both South Carolina races, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia*, Wyoming”
The claimWho wins.
The resultThad Cochran (R) won, 59.9% to 37.9%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Arkansas Senate race
“Arkansas – Tom Cotton over Mark Pryor by 4”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultTom Cotton (R) won, 56.5% to 39.4%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 South Dakota Senate race
“LIKELY REPUBLICAN South Dakota”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMike Rounds (R) won, 50.4% to 29.5%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race
“New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen over Scott Brown by 4”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultJeanne Shaheen (D) won, 51.5% to 48.2%.
Scott Erb on the 2014 Kentucky Senate race
“Kentucky – Mitch McConnell over Alison Grimes by 6”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultMitch McConnell (R) won, 56.2% to 40.7%.
Jim Ellis on the 2014 Arkansas Senate race
“New polling is beginning to show that Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) is on the verge of putting away this election.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTom Cotton (R) won, 56.5% to 39.4%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2014 South Carolina Senate race
“South Carolina Rating: Likely Republican hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultLindsey Graham (R) won, 54.3% to 38.8%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2014 South Dakota Senate race
“South Dakota Rating: Likely Republican takeover”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMike Rounds (R) won, 50.4% to 29.5%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2014 New Jersey Senate race
“New Jersey: Special 10/16/2013 and full-term 11/2014 Rating: Likely Democratic hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultCory Booker (D) won, 55.8% to 42.3%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race
“New Hampshire Rating: Likely Democratic hold”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJeanne Shaheen (D) won, 51.5% to 48.2%.
Jim Ellis on the 2014 North Carolina Senate race
“Close Senate Races Leaning D: Colorado Michigan New Hampshire North Carolina”
The claimWho wins.
The resultThom Tillis (R) won, 48.8% to 47.3%.
Jim Ellis on the 2014 North Carolina Senate race
“Advantage: Now clearly for Sen. Hagan and the Democrats”
The claimWho wins.
The resultThom Tillis (R) won, 48.8% to 47.3%.
2012
Chris Weigant on the 2012 presidential election
“Barack Obama -- 332 Electoral Votes”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 332-206 in the Electoral College.
Chris Weigant on the 2012 presidential race in Pennsylvania
“Mitt Romney's team has convinced themselves that there's a giant wave of Pennsylvanians which will put this state in his column tomorrow night. They are wrong. Pennsylvania goes strongly for Obama.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBarack Obama (D) carried Pennsylvania.
Dick Morris on the 2012 presidential election
“Yup. That’s right. A landslide for Romney approaching the magnitude of Obama’s against McCain. That’s my prediction.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 332-206 in the Electoral College.
Chris Weigant on the 2012 presidential race in Iowa
“Iowa (6) Iowa will go solidly for Obama, in a bigger margin than is now predicted. Iowa is the second brick in Obama's Midwestern firewall, and it will hold firm for him in the end.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultBarack Obama (D) carried Iowa.
Chris Weigant on the 2012 presidential race in Minnesota
“Minnesota (10) This is another one that both the media and the Romney team have been desperately trying to pull the wool over our eyes on, but it will comfortably vote for President Obama.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultBarack Obama (D) carried Minnesota.
George Will on the 2012 presidential election
“Electoral College Romney: 321 Obama: 217”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 332-206 in the Electoral College.
Donna Brazile on the 2012 presidential election
“Electoral College Obama: 313 Romney: 225”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 332-206 in the Electoral College.
Scott Erb on the 2012 Rhode Island Senate race
“Democratic safe: Washington, Minnesota, California, Michigan, West Virginia, New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia and Delaware. (11)”
The claimWho wins.
The resultSheldon Whitehouse (D) won, 64.8% to 35.0%.
Roger Kimball on the 2012 presidential race in Delaware
“But most if not all of the places where he might get a bounce were already firmly in the Blue Column: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBarack Obama (D) carried Delaware.
Scott Erb on the 2012 Mississippi Senate race
“Republican safe: Utah, Wyoming, Texas, Mississippi, Tennesse (5)”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRoger Wicker (R) won, 57.2% to 40.5%.
Jim Ellis on the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race
“Overall, however, the Democrats look to be in the more favorable position than Republicans in Massachusetts, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultElizabeth Warren (D) won, 53.7% to 46.2%.
Dick Morris on the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race
“Wisconsin has been a roller coaster. Once an easy win for Republican Tommy Thompson, then a likely loss as Democrat Tammy Baldwin caught up, and now Republican again, it will probably be a third pickup.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTammy Baldwin (D) won, 51.4% to 45.9%.
Dick Morris on the 2012 North Dakota Senate race
“Give the GOP easy pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultHeidi Heitkamp (D) won, 50.2% to 49.3%.
Dick Morris on the 2012 Montana Senate race
“Incumbent Democratic Senators are facing strong and probably successful challenges in Pennsylvania (Tom Smith), Ohio (Josh Mandel), and Montana (Denny Rehberg).”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJon Tester (D) won, 48.6% to 44.9%.
Dick Morris on the 2012 North Dakota Senate race
“But Republican takeaways seem imminent in North Dakota, Nebraska, and now Wisconsin (open seats all).”
The claimWho wins.
The resultHeidi Heitkamp (D) won, 50.2% to 49.3%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2012 Hawaii Senate race
“Hirono worked hard for this nomination and will win in November.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMazie Hirono (D) won, 62.6% to 37.4%.
Nate Silver on the 2012 Missouri Senate race
“Mr. Akin’s polling lead has been consistent enough that I now view the race as tilting toward him”
The claimWho wins.
The resultClaire McCaskill (D) won, 54.8% to 39.1%.
Nate Silver on the 2012 North Dakota Senate race
“I still see the race as favoring Mr. Berg, but it has been downgraded from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.””
The claimWho wins.
The resultHeidi Heitkamp (D) won, 50.2% to 49.3%.
Wayne Allyn Root on the 2012 presidential election
“Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 332-206 in the Electoral College.
2010
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Illinois Senate race
“Giannoulias will probably beat my namesake, just because Illinois is blue, “enthusiasm gap” notwithstanding.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Kirk (R) won, 48.0% to 46.4%.
Ed Morrissey on the 2010 Washington Senate race
“Murray also doesn’t look like a lock for re-election in Washington — in fact, the trends there look like Rossi has picked up enough momentum to beat her.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultPatty Murray (D) won, 52.4% to 47.6%.
Chris Weigant on control of the House in 2010
“Democrats pick up five Republican-held seats, but Republicans pick up a enormous wave of seats and win the House majority.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRepublicans won the House majority, with 242 seats.
Ed Morrissey on the 2010 Connecticut Senate race
“McMahon is still a long shot in a tough state for Republicans to win, but don’t be surprised if this comes in closer than people think.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRichard Blumenthal (D) won, 55.2% to 43.2%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Washington Senate race
“Murray will win, though this one could be scary as the enthusiasm gap is extremely potent in Washington State.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultPatty Murray (D) won, 52.4% to 47.6%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Nevada Senate race
“Reid loses to Angle in Nevada, by three or four points.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultHarry Reid (D) won, 50.3% to 44.5%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Colorado Senate race
“Buck beats Bennett in Colorado, and contrary to popular belief, I think Buck’s comments referring to Tea Partiers as dumbasses was deliberately played.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMichael Bennet (D) won, 48.1% to 46.4%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Wisconsin Senate race
“The worst loss for progressives will be Feingold, unless the same-day voting provisions and GOTV overcome some very depressing polling data.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRon Johnson (R) won, 51.9% to 47.0%.
Jim Ellis on the 2010 Kentucky Senate race
“Republicans look strong in all of their open seats, especially with Rand Paul pulling away from Attorney General Jack Conway in Kentucky.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRand Paul (R) won, 55.7% to 44.2%.
Jim Ellis on the 2010 Nevada Senate race
“Late trends appear to favor the Republican candidates in Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey), Colorado (Ken Buck), and Nevada (Sharron Angle).”
The claimWho wins.
The resultHarry Reid (D) won, 50.3% to 44.5%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 California Senate race
“Boxer will win, probably by seven or eight points.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultBarbara Boxer (D) won, 52.2% to 42.2%.
Eric Kirk on the 2010 Ohio Senate race
“Some polling is showing a close race in Ohio, but I don’t believe it. The Republicans will win.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRobert Jones Portman (R) won, 56.9% to 39.4%.
Chris Weigant on control of the Senate in 2010
“The effective split will thus be 53 to 47, in Democrats' favor.”
The claimWho wins, and with what count.
The resultDemocrats kept control, 53-47.
Jon Ralston on the 2010 Nevada Senate race
“The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultHarry Reid (D) won, 50.3% to 44.5%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2010 Illinois Senate race
“I'm predicting Democratic holds in Illinois (open), Nevada (Harry Reid) and Colorado (Michael Bennet). These three races are essentially tied, and I might be wrong on all of them.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Kirk (R) won, 48.0% to 46.4%.
M. Joseph Goodfriend on the 2010 Arkansas Senate race
“Republicans to pickup AR, IN, ND, PA and WI.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJohn Boozman (R) won, 57.9% to 37.0%.
Jim Ellis on the 2010 North Carolina Senate race
“There are other states where the GOP has a lock on a Senate seat as well: Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Utah.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRichard Burr (R) won, 54.8% to 43.0%.
Jim Ellis on the 2010 Connecticut Senate race
“Connecticut, where Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) appears set to put this seat away for the Democrats, but businesswoman Linda McMahon (R) is still showing signs of life”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRichard Blumenthal (D) won, 55.2% to 43.2%.
Nate Silver on the 2010 Connecticut Senate race
“She trails by double digits in most surveys of the state and now appears bound to lose”
The claimWho wins.
The resultRichard Blumenthal (D) won, 55.2% to 43.2%.
Thomas L. Knapp on the 2010 Colorado Senate race
“Colorado: This state will be a GOP pickup as Ken Buck unseats incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMichael Bennet (D) won, 48.1% to 46.4%.
Thomas L. Knapp on the 2010 Nevada Senate race
“Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid will beat Republican nominee Sharron Angle like a drum.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultHarry Reid (D) won, 50.3% to 44.5%.
Thomas L. Knapp on the 2010 Washington Senate race
“Washington: Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray will beat GOP nominee Dino Rossi.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultPatty Murray (D) won, 52.4% to 47.6%.
Thomas L. Knapp on the 2010 Indiana Senate race
“Indiana: Another Republican pickup, with Dan Coats beating Brad Ellsworth to replace the retiring Evan Bayh.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultDan Coats (R) won, 54.6% to 40.0%.
Nate Silver on the 2010 North Dakota Senate race
“They are almost certain to win in North Dakota, where the Democratic incumbent Byron L. Dorgan has retired”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJohn Hoeven (R) won, 76.1% to 22.2%.
2008
Bay Buchanan on the 2008 presidential election
“But I will say it's McCain-Palin in a squeaker.”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultBarack Obama (D) won the presidency, 365-173 in the Electoral College.
Nate Silver on the 2008 presidential race in New Mexico
“Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBarack Obama (D) carried New Mexico.
Markos Moulitsas on the 2008 Kentucky Senate race
“KY: McConnell (R) by 3 (please, please, please be wrong!)”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultMitch McConnell (R) won, 53.0% to 47.0%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 Alaska Senate race
“Notwithstanding the weird things that can happen to turnout in a state like Alaska should the presidential race get called early, it too looks like a safe Democratic seat.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Begich (D) won, 47.8% to 46.5%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 Colorado Senate race
“Mark Udall now has double-digit leads in essentially all polling, and perhaps as much as two-thirds of the state has already voted; he will become the next senator from the Rocky Mountain State.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Udall (D) won, 52.8% to 42.5%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 New Hampshire Senate race
“This means that there are five Democratic pickups — Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, Virginia, and New Mexico — that are now looking quite safe.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultJeanne Shaheen (D) won, 51.6% to 45.3%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 North Carolina Senate race
“The Democrats are now favored to take over eight seats from the Republicans: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, and Minnesota.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultKay Hagan (D) won, 52.6% to 44.2%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 New Mexico Senate race
“Virginia, New Mexico and New Hampshire — all of which remain near locks for the Democrats”
The claimWho wins.
The resultTom Udall (D) won, 61.3% to 38.7%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 Alaska Senate race
“While we’re not yet ready to call it a lock, a victory for Mark Begich over indicted incumbent Ted Stevens is highly probable in Alaska.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Begich (D) won, 47.8% to 46.5%.
Nate Silver on the 2008 Alaska Senate race
“We now classify Alaska as a likely Democratic pickup.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultMark Begich (D) won, 47.8% to 46.5%.
2006
J.C. Watts on the 2006 Maryland Senate race
“I don't know if it's a surprise but I do think Michael Steele wins Maryland.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBen Cardin (D) won, 54.2% to 44.2%.
Markos Moulitsas on the 2006 Rhode Island Senate race
“Rhode Island: 6 -point Whitehouse (D) win”
The claimWho wins, and by how much.
The resultSheldon Whitehouse (D) won, 53.5% to 46.5%.
James Carville on the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race
“David Gergen is absolutely right. Governor Rendell deserves a lot of credit for clearing the field for Bobby Casey to run for the Senate in Pennsylvania and obviously that's one race I'm very confident about.”
The claimWho wins.
The resultBob Casey Jr. (D) won, 58.6% to 41.3%.
How receipts are chosen: from a collection of dated public forecasts by commentators, a selection is checked one by one against a saved copy of the original (exact words, the speaker's own claim, the date, the link, the official result) and published only then; the collection holds correct and incorrect calls alike, and this page is not a sample of anyone's record. To report an error, write to contact@futureballot.com.