Delaware Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
11 of 21 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 15 seats after November (80% range 14–16) and Republicans 6 (5–7).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Dan Cruce (D), Hildi Bachtle (R), Steven Washington (Ind Pty of DE) | 97% | official |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 5 | Forecast | Shay Frisby (D), Brent Burdge (R), Carolyn Frank (Ind Pty of DE) | >99% | official |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Forecast | Spiros Mantzavinos (D), Chris Rowe (R) | 99% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Mara Gorman (D), Shane Cavanaugh (R) | >99% | official |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jack Walsh (D) | official | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Nicole Poore (D), Mark Esposito (R) | >99% | official |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marie Pinkney (D) | official | |
| 14 | Forecast | Kyra L. Hoffner (D), Mark Pugh (R) | 92% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Nisha Lodhavia (D), Emily A. Thompson (R) | 7% | official |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brian G. Pettyjohn (R) | official | |
| 20 | Forecast | Harry S. Gold (D), Gerald W. Hocker (R) | 5% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) |