Maryland Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
47 of 47 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 34 seats after November (80% range 33–35) and Republicans 13 (12–14). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Ashley Emerick (D), Mike McKay (R) | <1% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Eric Martin Van Buren (D), Paul D. Corderman (R) | 1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Karen Lewis Young (D), Shelley Aloi (R) | >99% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Lara Westdorp (D), William "Bill" Folden (R) | 6% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Gary Foote (D), Justin Ready (R) | 5% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Justin Holliday (D), Johnny Ray Salling (R) | 2% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Bill Geibler (D), J. B. Jennings (R) | 5% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Carl Jackson (D), Yahu Blackwell (R) | >99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Katie Fry Hester (D), Ben Hightower (R) | 99% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ben Brooks (D) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Shelly L. Hettleman (D), Jim Simpson (R) | >99% | official |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Clarence Lam (D) | official | |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Guy Guzzone (D) | official | |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Craig J. Zucker (D) | official | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian J. Feldman (D) | official | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sara N. Love (D) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Cheryl C. Kagan (D), Helene Meister (R) | 97% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeff Waldstreicher (D) | official | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ben Kramer (D) | official | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Will Smith (D) | official | |
| 21 | Forecast | Jim Rosapepe (D), Lee Havis (R) | >99% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Alonzo T. Washington (D), Jim Wass (R) | 96% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Ron Watson (D), James A. T. Amah (R) | >99% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tiffany Alston (D) | official | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nick Charles (D) | official | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | C. Anthony Muse (D) | official | |
| 27 | Forecast | Kevin M. Harris (D), Al Larsen (R) | 99% | official |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | C. T. Wilson (D) | official | |
| 29 | Forecast | Chuck Borges (D), Jack Bailey (R) | 5% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Shaneka T. Henson (D), Jessica Haire (R) | 99% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Brent Mulrooney (D), Nicholaus Kipke (R) | 7% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Mark S. Chang (D), Justin Gallucci (R) | >99% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Dawn D. Gile (D), Amy Leahy (R) | 97% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Mary-Dulany James (D), Raj Goel (R) | 85% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Neil Jennings (D), Jason C. Gallion (R) | 5% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Nivek Johnson (D), Steve Hershey (R) | 5% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Katie G. Clendaniel (D), Johnny Mautz (R) | 2% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Lino V. Cressotti (D), Mary Beth Carozza (R) | <1% | official |
| 39 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amar Mukunda (D) | official | |
| 40 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Antonio Hayes (D), Alan Rebar (Working Class Party) | official | |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Malcolm P. Ruff (D) | official | |
| 42 | Forecast | Stephanie Popescu (D), Kevin Ford (R) | 7% | official |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Washington (D) | official | |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charles E. Sydnor, III (D) | official | |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cory V. McCray (D) | official | |
| 46 | Forecast | Bill Ferguson (D), Emmanuel Digman (R) | >99% | official |
| 47 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Malcolm Augustine (D) | official |