Vermont House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
1%chance neither party has a majority
76seats for a majority, of 150
150 of 150 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 90 seats after November (80% range 82–99) and Republicans 53 (44–61). Neither party wins a majority in 1% of the simulations: about 7 seats are expected to go to independents or other parties and the parties can tie at 75 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Addison-1Addison-2Addison-3Addison-4Addison-5Addison-RutlandBennington-1Bennington-2Bennington-3Bennington-4Bennington-5Bennington-RutlandCaledonia-1Caledonia-2Caledonia-3Caledonia-EssexCaledonia-WashingtonChittenden-1Chittenden-2Chittenden-3Chittenden-4Chittenden-5Chittenden-6Chittenden-7Chittenden-8Chittenden-9Chittenden-10Chittenden-11Chittenden-12Chittenden-13Chittenden-14Chittenden-15Chittenden-16Chittenden-17Chittenden-18Chittenden-19Chittenden-20Chittenden-21Chittenden-22Chittenden-23Chittenden-24Chittenden-25Chittenden-FranklinEssex-CaledoniaEssex-OrleansFranklin-1Franklin-2Franklin-3Franklin-4Franklin-5Franklin-6Franklin-7Franklin-8Grand Isle-ChittendenLamoille-1Lamoille-2Lamoille-3Lamoille-WashingtonOrange-1Orange-2Orange-3Orange-CaledoniaOrange-Washington-AddisonOrleans-1Orleans-2Orleans-3Orleans-4Orleans-LamoilleRutland-1Rutland-2Rutland-3Rutland-4Rutland-5Rutland-6Rutland-7Rutland-8Rutland-9Rutland-10Rutland-11Rutland-BenningtonRutland-WindsorWashington-1Washington-2Washington-3Washington-4Washington-5Washington-6Washington-ChittendenWashington-OrangeWindham-1Windham-2Windham-3Windham-4Windham-5Windham-6Windham-7Windham-8Windham-9Windham-Windsor-BenningtonWindsor-1Windsor-2Windsor-3Windsor-4Windsor-5Windsor-6Windsor-AddisonWindsor-Orange-1Windsor-Orange-2Windsor-Windham
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison-1 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Mike Roy (D), Robin Scheu (D) | official | |
| Addison-2 | Forecast | Tanya Byker (D), Annie Wilson (R) | 95% | official |
| Addison-3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.9 | Joseph "Joe" Baker (R), Ariel Bolles (D), Rob North (R), John Stroup (D) | 61% | official |
| Addison-4 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Jeanne Albert (D), Lynn Dike (R), Chanin Hill (R), Karen Lueders (D) | 98% | official |
| Addison-5 | Forecast | Jubilee McGill (D), Del Thompson (R) | 97% | official |
| Addison-Rutland | Forecast | Jim Casey (R), Jonathan Hescock (D) | 4% | official |
| Bennington-1 | Forecast | Jonathan Cooper (D), Charles Edward Jewett (R) | 85% | official |
| Bennington-2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Anthony A. Cook (R), Timothy R. Corcoran II (D), William "Will" Greer (D) | >99% | official |
| Bennington-3 | Forecast | David K. Durfee (D), Victor K. Harwood Jr. (R) | 98% | official |
| Bennington-4 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Alford "Al" Clayton (R), Michael Fernandez (independent), Robert Hunter (D), Thomas West (D) | >99% | official |
| Bennington-5 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.3 | Thomas "Tom" Blakely (D), Mary A. Morrissey (R), Michael Nigro (D) | >99% | official |
| Bennington-Rutland | Forecast | Sandra "Sandy" Pinsonault (R), Mike Rice (D) | 16% | official |
| Caledonia-1 | Forecast | Debra "Debbie" Powers (R), David Tucker (D) | 6% | official |
| Caledonia-2 | Forecast | Audrey Grant (D), Michael Southworth (R) | 4% | official |
| Caledonia-3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Bill Coleman (PROG/DEM), Dennis R. Labounty (D), Erik R. Lavallee (R), Beth M. Quimby (R) | 2% | official |
| Caledonia-Essex | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.5 | Brandolyn Bradley (independent), Amanda Cochrane (D), Deborah Cordz Dolgin (R), Steven Dolgin (R), Heather Whitemore Young (D) | 35% | official |
| Caledonia-Washington | Forecast | Eric Bach (D), Greg Burtt (R) | 9% | official |
| Chittenden-1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jana Brown (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-2 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Angela Arsenault (D), Erin Brady (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-3 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Edye Graning (D), Trevor Squirrell (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-4 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | John Kingston (independent), Kelsey Pasteris (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chea Waters Evans (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-6 | Forecast | Kate Lalley (D), Deb Mayfield (R) | >99% | official |
| Chittenden-7 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Shawn J. Sweeney (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-8 | Forecast | Bridget Burkhardt (D), Mitchel Cypes (R) | 97% | official |
| Chittenden-9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emilie Krasnow (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kate Nugent (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian Minier (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Martin J. Lalonde (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-13 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Bram Kleppner (D), Karen Paul (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-14 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Elizabeth Allen-Pennebaker (D), Aaliyah Davila (R), Adam Franz (PROG/DEM) | official | |
| Chittenden-15 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Ben Bosley (D), Brian Cina (PROG/DEM), Troy Headrick (independent) | official | |
| Chittenden-16 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Trang Do (PROG/DEM), Christopher Haessly (independent), Jeffrey Peterson (PROG/DEM) | official | |
| Chittenden-17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Abbey Duke (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-18 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Ali Dieng (D), Dave Hartnett (independent), Carol Ode (D) | official | |
| Chittenden-19 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Sarah "Sarita" Austin (D), Wendy Critchlow (D), Spencer Sherman (R), Alex R. Thibault (R) | >99% | official |
| Chittenden-20 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Bill Bezio (R), Doug Bishop (D), Gayle Pezzo (D), Doug Wood (R) | 99% | official |
| Chittenden-21 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Daisy Berbeco (D), Matt Gile (PROG/DEM) | official | |
| Chittenden-22 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Brent Boerger (R), Karen Dolan (D), Lori Houghton (D), Seth Adam Manley (R) | 98% | official |
| Chittenden-23 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Pearl Lucero Beckage (R), Rey Garofano (D), Erik Post (D), Lynn U. Smith (R) | 98% | official |
| Chittenden-24 | Forecast | Alyssa Black (D), Stephanie Mack (R) | 99% | official |
| Chittenden-25 | Forecast | Julia Andrews (D), Brenda Steady (R) | 29% | official |
| Chittenden-Franklin | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Henry A. Bonges III (D), Natalie Cashen (D), Kumulia "Kase" Long (R), Anthony "Tony" Micklus (R) | 5% | official |
| Essex-Caledonia | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Kascenska (R) | official | |
| Essex-Orleans | No Democrat running: counted Republican | David M. Jacobs (R), John "Woton" Lally (WOMEN'S LIBERATION VEGI-ARYAN) | official | |
| Franklin-1 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Keith Billado (R), Caroline Bright (D), Julie Filiberti (D), Bob Stebbins (R) | 95% | official |
| Franklin-2 | Forecast | Eileen "Lynn" Dickinson (R), Pam McCarthy (D) | 93% | official |
| Franklin-3 | Forecast | Suzanne Kenyon (D), Joseph "Joe" Luneau (R) | 19% | official |
| Franklin-4 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.7 | Tamar Bouchard (D), Carmela Ann Mayette (D), Thomas "Tom" Oliver (R), Matthew E. Walker (R) | 90% | official |
| Franklin-5 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Lisa A. Hango (R), Wayne A. Laroche (R) | official | |
| Franklin-6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | James Gregoire (R) | official | |
| Franklin-7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Allen "Penny" Demar (R) | official | |
| Franklin-8 | Forecast | John "Jack" Brigham (R), Zach Scheffler (D) | 2% | official |
| Grand Isle-Chittenden | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Josie Henry (R), Sylvia Jensen (D), Michael R. Morgan (R), Dave Skinner (D) | 6% | official |
| Lamoille-1 | Decided: no Democrat or Republican is running | Jed Lipsky (independent) | official | |
| Lamoille-2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.3 | Richard J. Bailey (R), James "Jim" Lipinski (D), Daniel Noyes (D), Malcolm "Mac" Teale (R) | 83% | official |
| Lamoille-3 | Forecast | Adam Howard (independent), Deb Nevil (D), Rebecca Pitre (R) | 91% | official |
| Lamoille-Washington | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Susanna Guthmann Burnham (R), Saudia Lamont (D), Jason Thompson (R), David Yacovone (D) | >99% | official |
| Orange-1 | Forecast | Michael "Mike" Tagliavia (R), Gregory Wilson (D) | 23% | official |
| Orange-2 | Forecast | Nicholas Dilorenzo (R), Lance V. Mills (D) | 89% | official |
| Orange-3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Fran Covey (R) | official | |
| Orange-Caledonia | Forecast | Susan Culp (independent), Aiden Boyd Otterman (D), Tom Otterman (R) | 2% | official |
| Orange-Washington-Addison | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Emery Mattheis (PROG/DEM), Lance Ryan (R), Larry Satcowitz (D), Stephen W. Webster (R) | 99% | official |
| Orleans-1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Richard Nelson (R) | official | |
| Orleans-2 | Forecast | Woodman "Woody" H. Page (R), Xavier Stevens (D) | 3% | official |
| Orleans-3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kenneth L. Wells (R) | official | |
| Orleans-4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leanne Harple (D) | official | |
| Orleans-Lamoille | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Mark Higley (R), Praneet Menon (R) | official | |
| Rutland-1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Patricia A. McCoy (R) | official | |
| Rutland-2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | David "Dave" Bosch (R), Thomas "Tom" Burditt (R), Marsha Cassel (D) | 17% | official |
| Rutland-3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Brown (R) | official | |
| Rutland-4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Christopher Howland (R) | official | |
| Rutland-5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Eric Maguire (R) | official | |
| Rutland-6 | Forecast | Cindy Laskevich (R), Chris Siliski (D) | 77% | official |
| Rutland-7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Keyser (R) | official | |
| Rutland-8 | Forecast | Genevieve K. Duchesneau (D), Alicia Malay (R) | 89% | official |
| Rutland-9 | Forecast | Jeff Haylon (D), Aida Nielsen (R) | 32% | official |
| Rutland-10 | Decided: only a Republican is running | William P. Canfield (R) | official | |
| Rutland-11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Valorie Taylor (R) | official | |
| Rutland-Bennington | Forecast | Chris Pritchard (R), Jessica Van Oort (D) | 10% | official |
| Rutland-Windsor | Forecast | Phoebe Tucker (D), Kevin C. Winter (R) | 6% | official |
| Washington-1 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Kenneth W. Goslant (R), Lucas J. Herring (R) | official | |
| Washington-2 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Dara Torre (D), Candice White (D) | official | |
| Washington-3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Michael Boutin (R), John G. Santorello (R), Sonya Spaulding (D), Edward "Teddy" Waszazak (D) | 34% | official |
| Washington-4 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Jared Duval (D), Kate McCann (D) | official | |
| Washington-5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ela Chapin (D) | official | |
| Washington-6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marc Mihaly (D) | official | |
| Washington-Chittenden | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Katarina Lisaius (D), Theresa A.m. Wood (D) | official | |
| Washington-Orange | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Melissa Battah (D), Gina Galfetti (R), David Soucy (R), Emily Wheeler-Reynolds (D) | 15% | official |
| Windham-1 | Forecast | Zon Eastes (D), Nancy L. Gassett (R) | 99% | official |
| Windham-2 | Decided: no Democrat or Republican is running | Laura Sibilia (independent) | official | |
| Windham-3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Michelle Bos-Lun (D), Nicole Amanda Cota (R), Ryan M. Coyne (R), Chris Lundberg (D) | >99% | official |
| Windham-4 | Forecast | Ian G. Diamondstone (PEACE AND JUSTICE), Mike Mrowicki (D), Lynne Wilkins (R) | >99% | official |
| Windham-5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emily Long (D) | official | |
| Windham-6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emily Carris Duncan (D) | official | |
| Windham-7 | Forecast | Emilie Kornheiser (D), Aaron Smith (R) | >99% | official |
| Windham-8 | Forecast | William "Bill" Harvey (R), Daniel Quipp (D) | >99% | official |
| Windham-9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ian Goodnow (D) | official | |
| Windham-Windsor-Bennington | Forecast | E. Stuart Coleman (R), Chris Morrow (D) | >99% | official |
| Windsor-1 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Dylan Morse (D), John G. Tansey (D), Rich Thomas (independent) | official | |
| Windsor-2 | Forecast | Vl Coffin (R), Mark Yuengling (D) | 28% | official |
| Windsor-3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.6 | Alice M. Emmons (D), Randy A. Gray (R), Kristi C. Morris (D), Judith Stern (R) | 91% | official |
| Windsor-4 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Kyle Hansen (independent), Michael Hoyt (D), Justin Schoville (PEACE AND JUSTICE) | official | |
| Windsor-5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charlie Kimbell (D) | official | |
| Windsor-6 | Decided: 1 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | James "Jimmy" Coleman (PROG/DEM), Alanna Ojibway (D) | official | |
| Windsor-Addison | Forecast | Kirk White (D), Michael J. White (R) | 98% | official |
| Windsor-Orange-1 | Forecast | John K. O'Brien (D), Bruce Post (R) | 88% | official |
| Windsor-Orange-2 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Dee Gish (D), Lauren Morando Rhim (D) | official | |
| Windsor-Windham | Forecast | Thomas F. Charlton (R), William "Will" Hoser (D) | 43% | official |