Rhode Island Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
38 of 38 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 35 seats after November (80% range 35–36) and Republicans 3 (2–3). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jacob Bissaillon (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ana B. Quezada (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Samuel D. Zurier (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Stefano V. Famiglietti (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Forecast | Samuel W. Bell (D), William D. Connell Jr. (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tiara T. Mack (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Frank A. Ciccone (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lori Urso (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Burke (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Walter S. Felag Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda L. Ujifusa (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Louis DiPalma (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dawn Euer (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 14 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Valarie Jean Lawson (D), Brian G. Coogan (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Meghan E. Kallman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jonathon Acosta (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 17 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Nelly Burdette (D), John Douglas Barr II (independent), Jina N. Petrarca (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert Britto (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ryan W. Pearson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian J. Thompson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gordon E. Rogers (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David P. Tikoian (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jessica de la Cruz (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Melissa Murray (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew R. Dimitri (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Todd M. Patalano (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hanna M. Gallo (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lammis J. Vargas (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Peter A. Appollonio Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark McKenney (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matthew L. LaMountain (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Pamela J. Lauria (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Forecast | Leonidas Peter Raptakis (D), James P. Pierson (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Forecast | Samantha R. Wilcox (D), Elaine J. Morgan (R) | 22% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bridget G. Valverde (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 36 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alana M. DiMario (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Virginia Susan Sosnowski (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 38 | Forecast | Victoria Gu (D), Westin J. Place (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |