Nevada Assembly
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
42 of 42 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 27 seats after November (80% range 23–29) and Republicans 15 (13–19). Neither party wins a majority in 2% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 21 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 6 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Alexis Elizabeth Esparza (D), Tarik A. "Tab" Barnes (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | Drew Teitelbaum (R), Kamilah Bywaters (D) | 23% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | Joseph P. Silvestri (R), Selena Torres-Fossett (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Eileen Eady (D), Lisa Cole (R) | 18% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast | Brittney M. Miller (D), Kelly Quinn (R) | 91% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jovan Alexander Jackson (D), Katherine "Katie" Duncan (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Anthony Scott "Red" Willett (Libertarian), Cameron "C.h." Miller (D), Michael D. Musick (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Forecast | Joseph "Joey" Charafi (R), Duy Ngoc Nguyen (D) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Erica Alejandra Neely (R), Ryan Hampton (D) | 77% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Venise L. Karris (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cinthia Moore (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Forecast | Max Carter II (D), Nancy "Nan" Roecker (R) | 85% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Forecast | Brian Hibbetts (R), Daniel Andrews (D), Gage C. Beck (Libertarian) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Erica Mosca (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Miguel Davila (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Forecast | Cecelia Gonzalez (D), Jasmine Kurys (independent), John Carlo (R) | 90% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda F. Hunt (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Forecast | Crystal Newton (R), Venicia Considine (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Jason Patchett (R), Zackaraih Lysaght (Libertarian) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | David Orentlicher (D), Stan Vaughan (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Forecast | Elaine Marzola (D), Patsy A. Carvalho (R), Tighe Galvin (Libertarian) | 86% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Shenea Booth (D), Melissa Hardy (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | Denise Daniels Fanning (R), Jan Allen Aspelund (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Andrew A. Schaefer (independent), Erica Roth (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Forecast | Michael A. Ginsburg (R), Selena La Rue Hatch (D) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Richard DeLong (R), Sam Baugh (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Heather Goulding (D), Veronica "Lunch Lady" Cortes (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Reuben D'Silva (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Forecast | Alex J. Pereszlenyi (D), Joe Ludwig (R) | 83% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Natha C. Anderson (D), Trista Gomez (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Jill Dickman (R), Neal Schwartz (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alexis M. Hansen (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bert K. Gurr (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | Forecast | Brandon Davis (R), Hanadi Nadeem (D) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Joe Spica (D), Rebecca Edgeworth (R) | 19% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Gregory T. Hafen II (R), Jon Penn Junejo (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Jill M. Douglass (R), Shea M. Backus (D) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Gregory S. Koenig (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Blayne Osborn (R), Erich Obermayr (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Forecast | Julie A. Butler (R), Oscar Fuentes (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Vinny Spotleson (D), Kelly Chapman (R) | 72% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Christopher Brandlin (R), Tracy Brown-May (D) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |