Oklahoma · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
Who is running?
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (Democratic), Kevin Hern (Republican). The margin below is N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Oklahoma elects a senator on November 3, 2026, for the seat Markwayne Mullin held until he resigned on March 23, 2026 to become secretary of homeland security. Governor Kevin Stitt appointed oil and gas executive Alan Armstrong, who is prohibited from seeking a full term, so the seat is open. The text notes Democrats have not won a Senate election in Oklahoma since 1990. The state profile on file records a college share of 0.3 and a median age of 36.9.
The Republican nominee is Kevin Hern, U.S. representative for the 1st district since 2018, endorsed by President Donald Trump; he won the June 16 primary with 69.8% over country singer Ty England. The Democratic nominee is N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse, who led the first round with 45.2% and beat attorney Jim Priest in the August 25 runoff with 61.2%. Libertarian Sevier White and independents Ron Meinhardt and Curtis Stinnett are also standing. Hern had raised $8,284,047 with $8,216,286 on hand as of March 31, 2026; Thomas had raised $57,159 with $456 on hand as of August 5, 2026.
All ten raters listed call the race R, with dates from September 17 to September 26, 2026. One general-election poll is recorded: CHS & Associates (August 3–6, 2026, 500 registered voters) had Hern 49%, Thomas 25%, with 19% undecided.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican appointee Alan S. Armstrong, who was named to the seat in March after Markwayne Mullin resigned to become secretary of homeland security, is prohibited from seeking a full term.
Republican congressman Kevin Hern and Democratic nurse N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas are the nominees for their respective parties.
Republican congressman Kevin Hern and Democratic nurse N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas are the nominees for their respective parties.
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, nurse
Kevin Hern, U.S. representative for 1 (2018–present)
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Oklahoma since 1990.
Hern, endorsed by President Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination with 69.8% of the vote over country singer Ty England.
The Cook Political Report R September 23, 2026 Decision Desk HQ R September 25, 2026
|Kevin Hern (R) $8,284,047 $67,761 $8,216,286
Kevin Hern (R) N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) Other Undecided CHS & Associates August 3–6, 2026 500 (RV) ± 4.3% |49% 25% 8% 19%
On March 24, 2026, Governor Stitt announced that oil and gas executive Alan Armstrong would replace Mullin
Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative for 2 (2023–present) (running for re-election; endorsed Hern)
Sevier White, nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2016
Not in the source: The forecast rows carry no `basis`, so it cannot be told whether the model uses the CHS & Associates poll.; No general-election fundraising report later than March 31, 2026 for Hern; Thomas's latest figures are from the runoff period.; Ratings are given as 'R' without Lean/Likely/Safe.; No presidential or prior Senate vote shares for the state are given.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 4ef74d242d6e; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
James Lankford (Republican), in this chamber since 2015, 3 terms, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; Senate Select Committee on Ethics (Chairman); Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Alan Armstrong (Republican), in this chamber since 2026, 1 term, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on Indian Affairs.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hern, Kevin (REP) challenger | $9,953,579 | $2,491,910 | 7% | 51% | $2,421,135 | $0 |
| Mullin, Markwayne (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $3,181,278 | $1,420,330 | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Priest, Jim (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $377,843 | $55,851 | 0% | 15% | $0 | $0 |
| Thomas, N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann (DEM) challenger | $57,159 | $456 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Green, Troy Wesley (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $32,974 | $8,891 | 0% | 21% | $0 | $0 |
| Ragain, Brian Matthew (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $26,855 | $7,469 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Yen, Ervin Stone Dr (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $20,793 | $0 | 0% | 48% | $0 | $0 |
| England, Gary Ty Mr. (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $19,412 | $4,412 | 0% | 77% | $0 | $0 |
| Meinhardt, Ron (IND) challenger · not on our roster | $8,713 | $162 | 0% | 2% | $0 | $0 |
| Hankins, Nicky Joe (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $2,628 | $0 | 0% | 57% | $0 | $0 |
| Hankins, Nicky Joe (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $2,628 | $0 | 0% | 57% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through August 05, 2026; $2,421,135 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+38.6 | R+33.9 | R+34.9 |
A shift of 3.7 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 27.8% | 34.0% | -6.2 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 62.8% | 66.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 6.9% | 10.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 12.3% | 12.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 2.3% | 4.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 6.2% | 9.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 36.9 | 39.1 | -2.18 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $63,603 | $77,633 | $-14,030 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $185,900 | $314,132 | $-128,232 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 65.8% | 67.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.9% | 4.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 4.7% | 3.0% | +1.7 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 8.5% | 12.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 13.6% | 11.1% | +2.5 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 31.9% | 32.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 2.9% | 2.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 2.8% | 2.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.47 | 0.47 | +0.00 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 4.6% | 4.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | +1.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | +1.1 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $63,708 | $70,662 | $-6,954 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 32.2% | 32.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 21.4% | 19.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 6.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 4.9% | 4.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.5% | 3.8% | -0.3 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.9% | 0.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.5% | 0.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 2.1% | 1.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.4% | 1.2% | +0.3 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.0 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -46.0 and -12.0 points. Election day: -44.5 to -8.0. The election-day interval is 2.5 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 11.16 points, made of latent opinion 62%, race-specific polling error 20%, drift to election day 13%, correlated polling error 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
1 polls, most recent 2026-08-06. every input is provisional.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas ahead of Kevin Hern. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -1.7 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +1.01 from the shorter horizon, and -1.01 from the model specification.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 5ac0df99-dd8e-4a10-8ab3-eb2ffbcca4b8 and election-day run 2541b9cf-d783-4822-8dc4-91d0942c9f99, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.