Wisconsin Assembly
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
28%chance of a Democratic majority
72%chance of a Republican majority
50seats for a majority, of 99
99 of 99 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 47 seats after November (80% range 41–52) and Republicans 52 (47–58). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Joel Kitchens (R), Renee Paplham (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 2 | Forecast | Alicia Saunders (D), Shae Sortwell (R) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 3 | Forecast | Ron Tusler (R), Michael J. Goodwin (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 4 | Forecast | David Steffen (R), Alexia Unertl (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 5 | Forecast | Joy Goeben (R), Justin Schumacher (D), David Schupbach (Green) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 6 | Forecast | Elijah Behnke (R), Shirley Hinze (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 7 | Forecast | Karen Kirsch (D), Lee Whiting (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Forecast | Ismael Luna (D), Angel Sanchez (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 9 | Forecast | Priscilla Prado (D), Samuel Guerreo (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 10 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Darrin Madison (D), Robert Longwell-Grice (Green) | wikipedia | |
| 11 | Forecast | Sequanna Taylor (D), Shandowlyon Reaves (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Russell Goodwin (D) | wikipedia | |
| 13 | Forecast | Amy Zimmerman (D), Mike Morgan (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 14 | Forecast | Angelito Tenorio (D), AmyRose Murphy (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 15 | Forecast | Adam Neylon (R), Stephen Tryon (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 16 | Forecast | Kalan Haywood (D), Alciro Deacon (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 17 | Forecast | Supreme Moore Omokunde (D), Charlene Abughrin (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 18 | Forecast | Margaret Arney (D), Joel Richmond (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 19 | Forecast | Ryan Clancy (D), Yasmine B. Outlaw (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 20 | Forecast | Christine Sinicki (D), Kyle Cleary (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 21 | Forecast | Dylan Pfaffenbach (R), Dan J. Bukiewicz (D) | 57% | wikipedia |
| 22 | Forecast | Paul Melotik (R), Dana Glasstein (D) | 5% | wikipedia |
| 23 | Forecast | Deb Andraca (D), John Belanger (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 24 | Forecast | Dan Knodl (R), Matt Brown (D) | 3% | wikipedia |
| 25 | Forecast | Paul Tittl (R), Chris Able (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Forecast | Joe Sheehan (D), John Belanger (R) | 89% | wikipedia |
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lindee Brill (R) | wikipedia | |
| 28 | Forecast | Robin Kreibich (R), Robin Lillesve (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 29 | Forecast | Treig Pronschinske (R), Chris Danou (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Forecast | Shannon Zimmerman (R), Kevin Knoke (D) | 18% | wikipedia |
| 31 | Forecast | Tyler August (R), John Perryman (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Forecast | Amanda Nedweski (R), Greg Miller (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 33 | Forecast | Steve Wicklund (R), Maria Elena Bisabarros (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 34 | Forecast | Rob Swearingen (R), Merlin Van Buren (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 35 | Forecast | Calvin Callahan (R), Elizabeth McCrank (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 36 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Jeffrey Mursau (R), Shena Chapman (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 37 | Forecast | Mark Born (R), LaToya Bates (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 38 | Forecast | William Penterman (R), Terri Wenkman (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 39 | Forecast | Alex Dallman (R), Michael Skivington (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 40 | Forecast | Karen DeSanto (D), Julie Helmer (R) | 96% | wikipedia |
| 41 | Forecast | Tony Kurtz (R), Zach Commons (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 42 | Forecast | Maureen McCarville (D), Keith F. Miller (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 43 | Forecast | Brienne Brown (D), Keith F. Miller (R) | 88% | wikipedia |
| 44 | Forecast | Ann Roe (D), Ron Woodman (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 45 | Forecast | Clinton Anderson (D), Jocelyn Jordan (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 46 | Forecast | Joan Fitzgerald (D), John Donahue (R) | 92% | wikipedia |
| 47 | Forecast | Randy Udell (D), Sandy Bakk (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 48 | Forecast | Andrew Hysell (D), Mark Kjorlie (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 49 | Forecast | Travis Tranel (R), John Rindy (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 50 | Forecast | Bill Oemichen (D), Jon Aleckson (R) | 96% | wikipedia |
| 51 | Forecast | Todd Novak (R), Ben Gruber (D), Nathan Tataje (Other) | 35% | wikipedia |
| 52 | Forecast | Lee Snodgrass (D), Reive Pullen (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 53 | Forecast | David Daniels (R), Becky Nichols (D), Rachael Dowling (independent) | 63% | wikipedia |
| 54 | Forecast | Lori Palmeri (D), Tim Paterson (R) | 93% | wikipedia |
| 55 | Forecast | Nate Gustafson (R), Alex Corrigan (D) | 2% | wikipedia |
| 56 | Forecast | Anthony Phillips (R), Grace Abitz (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 57 | Forecast | Kevin Krentz (R), Joey Marschall (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 58 | Forecast | Bernie Newman (R), Dennis D. Degenhardt (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 59 | Forecast | Bradley Petersen (R), Jack Holzman (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 60 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Marty Ryan (R), Tiffany Brault (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 61 | Forecast | Bob Donovan (R), Ben Brist (D) | 36% | wikipedia |
| 62 | Forecast | Angelina Cruz (D), Mike Bellagio (R) | 98% | wikipedia |
| 63 | Forecast | Robert Wittke (R), Eddie Phanichkul (D) | 4% | wikipedia |
| 64 | Forecast | Tip McGuire (D), Ed Hibsch (R) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 65 | Forecast | Ben DeSmidt (D), Valerie Kretchmer (R) | 94% | wikipedia |
| 66 | Forecast | Greta Neubauer (D), Gina Cefalu Paulick (R) | 95% | wikipedia |
| 67 | Forecast | David Armstrong (R), Indiana Thompson (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 68 | Forecast | Rob Summerfield (R), Elisha King (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 69 | Forecast | Karen Hurd (R), Roger Hall (D), Josh Kelley (independent) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 70 | Forecast | Nancy VanderMeer (R), Stephanie Stuve-Bodeen (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 71 | Forecast | Vinnie Miresse (D), Jeff Disher (R) | 94% | wikipedia |
| 72 | Forecast | Scott Krug (R), Christine Maltese (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 73 | Forecast | Angela Stroud (D), Frank Kostka (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 74 | Forecast | Chanz Green (R), Paul Johnson (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 75 | Forecast | Duke Tucker (R), Keith Mogel (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 76 | Forecast | Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (D), Nina Chat (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 77 | Forecast | Renuka Mayadev (D), Jane McCormick (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 78 | Forecast | Shelia Stubbs (D), Henry Johnson (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 79 | Forecast | Lisa Subeck (D), John Fons (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 80 | Forecast | Mike Bare (D), Simran Arora (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 81 | Forecast | Alex Joers (D), Mark S. Maier (R) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 82 | Forecast | Bryson Reyes (R), Rico Comancho (D) | 14% | wikipedia |
| 83 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dave Maxey (R) | wikipedia | |
| 84 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chuck Wichgers (R) | wikipedia | |
| 85 | Forecast | Patrick Snyder (R), John Kroll (D) | 24% | wikipedia |
| 86 | Forecast | John Spiros (R), Andy Wuethrich (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 87 | Forecast | Brent Jacobson (R), Bob Look (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 88 | Forecast | Ben Franklin (R), Brandy Tollefson (D) | 47% | wikipedia |
| 89 | Forecast | Ryan Spaude (D), Bobby Lindsey (R) | 88% | wikipedia |
| 90 | Forecast | Amaad Rivera-Wagner (D), Jessica Henderson (R) | 93% | wikipedia |
| 91 | Forecast | Jodi Emerson (D), Bruce Stabenow (R) | 89% | wikipedia |
| 92 | Forecast | Clint Moses (R), Jeremiah Fredrickson (D) | 25% | wikipedia |
| 93 | Forecast | Christian Phelps (D), Michael Ayala (R) | 93% | wikipedia |
| 94 | Forecast | Steve Doyle (D), Keith Purnell (R) | 83% | wikipedia |
| 95 | Forecast | Jill Billings (D), Cedric Schnitzler (R), Paul Michael Weber (independent) | 90% | wikipedia |
| 96 | Forecast | Tara Johnson (D), Jim Green (R) | 88% | wikipedia |
| 97 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cindi Duchow (R) | wikipedia | |
| 98 | Forecast | Jim Piwowarczyk (R), Matt Philibert (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 99 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Barbara Dittrich (R) | wikipedia |