AZ-1 · House

The district, in brief

Arizona's 1st is based in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs, including Scottsdale, on the map first used in 2022; it is not redrawn for this cycle. The text gives no presidential result for the district.

The seat is open. The incumbent, Republican David Schweikert, reelected with 51.9% in 2024, withdrew in September 2025 to run for governor. The Republican nominee is Jay Feely, a CBS Sports analyst and former Arizona Cardinals player who previously ran in the 5th district; he won the primary with 49.8% (43,709 votes) over former state representative Joseph Chaplik at 35.7% and businessman John Trobough at 14.5%. The Democratic nominee is Amish Shah, a former state representative and the 2024 nominee for the district, who won a four-way primary with 39.4% (29,002 votes) over Marlene Galán-Woods at 34.4%, Jonathan Treble at 17.7% and Rick McCartney at 8.5%. A Libertarian, Monica Alponte, is also on the ballot. As of July 1, 2026 Feely had raised $2,525,520 with $794,475 on hand; Shah had raised $1,830,193, of which $430,655 was self funded, with $401,745 on hand.

Four raters label the seat Flip: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (September 25, 2026), The Economist (May 7, 2026) and Silver Bulletin (August 20, 2026); Inside Elections (October 1, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (July 10, 2025) call it Tossup. The only general-election poll is a generic-ballot test by Clarity Campaign Labs, a Democratic firm (November 1–5, 2025, 677 registered voters): generic Republican 46%, generic Democrat 45%, undecided 9%. The other polls in the text are of the two primaries.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text gives no presidential results for the district.; No head-to-head general-election poll between Feely and Shah; the one general poll is a generic ballot from November 2025. The model's basis says no district polls.; The facts carry no presidential baseline (presidential_baseline is null).; The raters' labels are 'Flip' and 'Tossup' with no party direction or Lean/Likely gradation given.; No endorsements are listed beyond those noted against declined candidates.; No primary date is given.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 389ca3f89b96; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

David Schweikert (Republican), in this chamber since 2011, 8 terms. Committees: Joint Economic Committee (Chairman); House Committee on Ways and Means.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 0.5 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 590,308 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 50.7% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 50.6% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.3 points toward Republicans. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through September 22, 2026; $4,309,263 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from -9.5 to +20.7 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: total outside/party money: 2.9 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+2 levels, D minus R): 1.1 pts toward the Democrat; outside money balance: 0.7 pts toward the Republican; Democrat's experience (state legislature): 0.4 pts toward the Republican; federal worker share (1.5%): 0.4 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.13 points, made of the seat's own volatility 91%, correlated polling error 9%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).