Pennsylvania House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
71%chance of a Democratic majority
29%chance of a Republican majority
102seats for a majority, of 203
203 of 203 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 103 seats after November (80% range 99–108) and Republicans 100 (95–104). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patrick J Harkins (D) | official | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bob Merski (D) | official | |
| 3 | Forecast | Donna Reese (R), Ryan A Bizzarro (D) | 98% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Jake Banta (R), Kathryn Divittorio (D) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Andres R F Santiago (D), Eric Weaknecht (R) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Brad Roae (R), Michael Walker (D) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Christopher A Crumby-Ford (D), Parke Wentling (R) | 3% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Aaron Bernstine (R), Rick Telesz (D) | 2% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Marla Gallo Brown (R), Shay Micco (D) | 2% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amen Brown (D) | official | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Marci Mustello (R) | official | |
| 12 | Forecast | Brandon Dukes (D), Scott Timko (R) | 2% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | John Lawrence (R), Madelyn Alvarino (D) | 4% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Jake Young (D), Roman Kozak (R) | <1% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Joshua D Kail (R), Sydney Speicher (D) | <1% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | John Costanza (R), Robert F Matzie (D) | 90% | official |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tim Bonner (R) | official | |
| 18 | Forecast | Bryan Allen (D), Kathleen Kc Tomlinson (R) | 10% | official |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Aerion Andrew Abney (D) | official | |
| 20 | Forecast | Emily Kinkead (D), Joseph Aguglia (R) | 99% | official |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lindsay Powell (D) | official | |
| 22 | Forecast | Ce-Ce Gerlach (D), Robert E Smith Jr. (R) | 97% | official |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dan Frankel (D) | official | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | La'tasha D Mayes (D) | official | |
| 25 | Forecast | Amy Noone (R), Brandon J Markosek (D) | 99% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Paul Friel (D), Samantha Horosky (R) | 98% | official |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dan Deasy (D) | official | |
| 28 | Forecast | Jeremy Ferderber (D), Jeremy Shaffer (R) | 6% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Sean Duffy (R), Tim Brennan (D) | 98% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Arvind Venkat (D), Libby Blackburn (R) | 96% | official |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Perry Warren (D) | official | |
| 32 | Forecast | Gary Motor (R), Joe McAndrew (D) | 98% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Mandy Steele (D), Mike Hammill (R) | 97% | official |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Abigail Salisbury (D) | official | |
| 35 | Forecast | Dan Goughnour (D), Jim Edwards (R) | 98% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Jessica Benham (D), Timothy McCune (R) | 99% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Chad Gleissl (D), Mindy Fee (R) | <1% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | John Inglis (D), Stone Sobieralski (R) | 97% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Andrew Kuzma (R), Dylan Altemara (D) | 1% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Jon Lloyd (D), Natalie Mihalek (R) | 2% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Brad Chambers (D), Brett R Miller (R) | 10% | official |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jen Mazzocco (D) | official | |
| 43 | Forecast | Bryan Peirson (D), Keith J Greiner (R) | 3% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Hadley Haas (D), Valerie Gaydos (R) | 18% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Brittany Bloam (D), James Julius (R) | 97% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Jason Ortitay (R), Mike Crossey (D) | 1% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Edward Ritter (D), Joe D'Orsie (R) | 1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Rebecca Mactaggart (D), Tim Oneal (R) | 4% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Izzy Smith-Wade-El (D), Vanessa Acosta (R) | 99% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Ben Humble (R), Lois Bower-Bjornson (D) | <1% | official |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Charity Grimm Krupa (R) | official | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ryan Warner (R) | official | |
| 53 | Forecast | Steve Malagari (D), Yanni Lambros (R) | 99% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Greg Scott (D) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | Davon Magwood (D), Jill Cooper (R) | <1% | official |
| 56 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brian Rasel (R) | official | |
| 57 | Forecast | Eric Nelson (R), Rob Francis (D) | 3% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Cherri Rogers (D), Eric Davanzo (R) | <1% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Jordan Omlor (D), Leslie Rossi (R) | <1% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Abby Major (R), Dustyn A Dorn (D) | 2% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Angela Illingworth (R), Liz Hanbidge (D) | 99% | official |
| 62 | Forecast | Jim Struzzi (R), Trajan Jones (D) | 2% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | Andrew Harbaugh (D), Josh Bashline (R) | <1% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Amanda Shaffer (D), R Lee James (R) | 2% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Destiny Howard (D), Kathy L Rapp (R) | <1% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Brian Smith (R), Lisa Gourley (D) | 1% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Martin T Causer (R), Zachary Ware (D) | <1% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | Clint Owlett (R), Quentin Gee (D) | 2% | official |
| 69 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Carl Walker Metzgar (R) | official | |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matt Bradford (D) | official | |
| 71 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Rigby (R) | official | |
| 72 | Forecast | Frank Burns (D), Phil Rice (R) | 87% | official |
| 73 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dallas Kephart (R) | official | |
| 74 | Forecast | Dan Williams (D), Lorenzo Kelley (R) | 96% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Kim Kohlhepp (D), Mike Armanini (R) | 2% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Sara Eggler (D), Stephanie Borowicz (R) | <1% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | H Scott Conklin (D), Michelle Schellberg (R) | >99% | official |
| 78 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jesse Topper (R) | official | |
| 79 | Forecast | Andrea C Verobish (R), Caleb McCoy (D) | 3% | official |
| 80 | Forecast | Sarah Holland (D), Scott Barger (R) | 2% | official |
| 81 | Forecast | Caleb J Donahue (D), Rich Irvin (R) | <1% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Kirsten McTernan (R), Paul Takac (D) | 94% | official |
| 83 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jamie L Flick (R) | official | |
| 84 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joe Hamm (R) | official | |
| 85 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David H Rowe (R) | official | |
| 86 | Forecast | Perry Stambaugh (R), Wendy Morgan (D) | 1% | official |
| 87 | Forecast | Jessica St Clair (D), Thomas Kutz (R) | 1% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Jeff Clark (R), Sara Agerton (D) | 23% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | Rob Kauffman (R), Shannon Michael Jackson (D) | <1% | official |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chad G Reichard (R) | official | |
| 91 | Forecast | Dan Moul (R), Kathleen Pratt (D) | 3% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | Krista Jean Anderson (D), Marc Anderson (R) | <1% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Mike Jones (R), Missy Barnes (D) | 3% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Konnor John-Richard Grimek (D), Wendy Fink (R) | 2% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Carol Hill-Evans (D), Jasmine Rivera (R) | 99% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Babita Rusyn (R), Nikki Rivera (D) | 99% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Jess Branas (D), Steve Mentzer (R) | 1% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Hugh Darlington (D), Joshua Deering (INT), Nicky Woods (R) | 1% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Dave Zimmerman (R), Ethan Gabrick (D) | 2% | official |
| 100 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Dale Hamby (INT), Dave Nissley (R) | official | |
| 101 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Schlegel (R) | official | |
| 102 | Forecast | Matthew Duvall (D), Russ Diamond (R) | 2% | official |
| 103 | Forecast | Cindi Ward (R), Nate Davidson (D) | 99% | official |
| 104 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dave Madsen (D) | official | |
| 105 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justin Fleming (D) | official | |
| 106 | Forecast | Anju Singh (D), Tom Mehaffie (R) | 1% | official |
| 107 | Forecast | Joanne Stehr (R), Ryan T Coleman (D) | 2% | official |
| 108 | Forecast | Amber L Neidig (D), Michael Stender (R) | 2% | official |
| 109 | Forecast | Justin C Hummel (D), Robert Leadbeter (R) | <1% | official |
| 110 | Forecast | Pamela J Hemann (D), Tina Pickett (R) | 2% | official |
| 111 | Forecast | Jonathan Fritz (R), Kyle Devlin (D) | 2% | official |
| 112 | Forecast | Joseph J Sabia Jr. (R), Kyle J Mullins (D) | 97% | official |
| 113 | Forecast | Kyle T Donahue (D), Lucas O'Brien (R) | 97% | official |
| 114 | Forecast | Bridget Malloy Kosierowski (D), Logan Lombardo (R) | 97% | official |
| 115 | Forecast | Maureen Madden (D), Rich Szabo (R) | 93% | official |
| 116 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dane Watro (R) | official | |
| 117 | Forecast | Jamie Walsh (R), Jeremy Benscoter (D) | 2% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Jim Haddock (D), John Lombardo (R) | 97% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Alec J Ryncavage (R), Lauren McCurdy (D) | 1% | official |
| 120 | Forecast | Brenda Pugh (R), Fern Leard (D) | 5% | official |
| 121 | Forecast | Jessica McClay (D), Mike Harostock (R) | 93% | official |
| 122 | Forecast | Christian Bartulovich (D), Doyle Heffley (R) | 2% | official |
| 123 | Forecast | John Deatrich (D), Tim Twardzik (R) | <1% | official |
| 124 | Forecast | Jamie Barton (R), Tina Burns (D) | <1% | official |
| 125 | Forecast | Joe Kerwin (R), Kathryn Waters (D) | <1% | official |
| 126 | Forecast | Jacklyn Rusnock (D), Miguel Vasquez (R) | 97% | official |
| 127 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Manny Guzman (D) | official | |
| 128 | Forecast | Andy Wagner (D), Mark M Gillen (R) | 4% | official |
| 129 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz (D) | official | |
| 130 | Forecast | Erik Bonnett (D), Melissa Brewer (R) | 1% | official |
| 131 | Forecast | Meriam Sabih (D), Milou Mackenzie (R) | 6% | official |
| 132 | Forecast | Caren Lowrey (R), Mike Schlossberg (D) | 98% | official |
| 133 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeanne McNeill (D) | official | |
| 134 | Forecast | Miriam Maldonado (R), Peter Schweyer (D) | 98% | official |
| 135 | Forecast | Joe Poplawski (R), Steve Samuelson (D) | 98% | official |
| 136 | Forecast | Pilar Cavallo-Campisi (R), Robert Freeman (D) | 98% | official |
| 137 | Forecast | Jeff Warren (D), Joe Emrick (R) | 32% | official |
| 138 | Forecast | Ann Flood (R), Jared Bitting (D) | <1% | official |
| 139 | Forecast | Dominique Azzollini (D), Jeff Olsommer (R) | <1% | official |
| 140 | Forecast | Jim Prokopiak (D), Michael J Gettis (R) | 95% | official |
| 141 | Forecast | Ken Velez (R), Tina Davis (D) | >99% | official |
| 142 | Forecast | Joe Hogan (R), Kristin Egan (D) | 13% | official |
| 143 | Forecast | Chris Gambino (FWI), Shelby Labs (R), Tim Hayes (D) | 8% | official |
| 144 | Forecast | Brian Munroe (D), Mike Murphy (R) | 86% | official |
| 145 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Craig Staats (R), Rebecca Prendergast (independent) | official | |
| 146 | Forecast | Jeffrey T Fartro (R), Joe Ciresi (D) | 99% | official |
| 147 | Forecast | Donna M Scheuren (R), Margaret Burke (D) | 4% | official |
| 148 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Megan Griffin-Shelley (D) | official | |
| 149 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tim Briggs (D) | official | |
| 150 | Forecast | Frank J Pastella (R), Joe Webster (D) | 99% | official |
| 151 | Forecast | Allen Arthur Anderson (R), Melissa Cerrato (D) | >99% | official |
| 152 | Forecast | Eric Maier (R), Nancy Guenst (D) | >99% | official |
| 153 | Forecast | Ben Sanchez (D), Cory L Toner (R) | >99% | official |
| 154 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Napoleon Nelson (D), Stephanie Berardi (PFP) | official | |
| 155 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Danielle Friel Otten (D) | official | |
| 156 | Forecast | Chris Pielli (D), Kris R Vollrath (R) | 99% | official |
| 157 | Forecast | Justin J Pak (R), Melissa Shusterman (D) | 99% | official |
| 158 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christina D Sappey (D) | official | |
| 159 | Forecast | Carol Kazeem (D), Mike Bannon Jr. (R) | 99% | official |
| 160 | Forecast | Craig Williams (R), Elizabeth Moro (D) | 31% | official |
| 161 | Forecast | John Mancinelli Jr. (R), Leanne Krueger (D) | 99% | official |
| 162 | Forecast | Dave Delloso (D), Mike Murphy (R) | 98% | official |
| 163 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Heather Boyd (D) | official | |
| 164 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gina H Curry (D) | official | |
| 165 | Forecast | Deirdre McCleary (R), Jennifer O'Mara (D) | 99% | official |
| 166 | Forecast | Joe Walker (R), Judy Trombetta (D) | 99% | official |
| 167 | Forecast | Joe Lewis (R), Kristine Howard (D) | 99% | official |
| 168 | Forecast | Kathryn Buckley (R), Lisa A Borowski (D) | 99% | official |
| 169 | Forecast | Austin Graham (D), Kate A Klunk (R) | 3% | official |
| 170 | Forecast | Martina White (R), Rob Gurtcheff (D) | 4% | official |
| 171 | Forecast | John Zangari (D), Kerry A Benninghoff (R) | 2% | official |
| 172 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean M Dougherty (D) | official | |
| 173 | Forecast | Bill Griffin (R), Pat Gallagher (D) | 98% | official |
| 174 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ed Neilson (D) | official | |
| 175 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marylouise Isaacson (D) | official | |
| 176 | Forecast | Jack Rader (R), Thomas Kucer (D) | 1% | official |
| 177 | Forecast | Joe Hohenstein (D), Robyn Bird (R) | 98% | official |
| 178 | Forecast | Kristin Marcell (R), Monica Weninger (D) | 1% | official |
| 179 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason T Dawkins (D) | official | |
| 180 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jose A Giral (D) | official | |
| 181 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Malcolm Kenyatta (D) | official | |
| 182 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ben Waxman (D) | official | |
| 183 | Forecast | Deirdre Kamber Todd (D), Zach Mako (R) | <1% | official |
| 184 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Elizabeth Fiedler (D) | official | |
| 185 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Regina Young (D) | official | |
| 186 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jordan A Harris (D) | official | |
| 187 | Forecast | Gary Day (R), Rachel Cuevas (D) | 11% | official |
| 188 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rick Krajewski (D) | official | |
| 189 | Forecast | Danica Hartenfels (R), Tarah Probst (D) | 98% | official |
| 190 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Roni Green (D) | official | |
| 191 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joanna E McClinton (D) | official | |
| 192 | Forecast | Morgan Cephas (D), Tiffany Vann Brown (R) | >99% | official |
| 193 | Forecast | Catherine Wallen (R), Todd Crawley (D) | 2% | official |
| 194 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tarik Khan (D) | official | |
| 195 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sierra McNeil (D) | official | |
| 196 | Forecast | George Margetas (R), Ron Ruman (D) | 3% | official |
| 197 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Danilo Burgos (D) | official | |
| 198 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Darisha K Parker (D) | official | |
| 199 | Forecast | Barb Gleim (R), Tawanda Hunter Stallworth (D) | 2% | official |
| 200 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chris Johnson (D) | official | |
| 201 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andre D Carroll (D) | official | |
| 202 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jared Solomon (D) | official | |
| 203 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anthony Bellmon (D) | official |