Arizona Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
30 of 30 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 15 seats after November (80% range 13–17) and Republicans 15 (13–17). Neither party wins a majority in 18% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 15 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Mark Finchem (R), Christine Ellen Dargon (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Forecast | Shawnna Bolick (R), Amelia Gallitano (D) | 34% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Forecast | John Kavanagh (R), Jeffrey Fortney (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Forecast | Carine Werner (R), Aaron Lieberman (D) | 34% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Christine Marsh (D), Jason Laforest (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Forecast | Lloyd Johnson (R), Jamescita Peshlakai (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Forecast | Wendy Rogers (R), Michiel "Mike" Montiel (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Forecast | Bill Loughrige (R), Lauren Kuby (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Forecast | Bridget Fitzgibbons (R), Kiana Maria Sears (D) | 90% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Forecast | David Christian Farnsworth (R), Blair Moses (D), Nick Fierro (independent) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast | Joshua Ayala (R), Catherine Miranda (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Patricia "Patty" Contreras (D), Anthony Jason Ramirez (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Julie Willoughby (R), Kristie O'Brien (D) | 42% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Mylie Biggs (R), Stephanie Walsh (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Jake Hoffman (R), Jayme Accalia (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Thomas "T.j." Shope (R), Elaine Aldrete (D) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Christopher King (R), Edgar Soto (D) | 60% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Douglas Everett (R), Priya Sundareshan (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Forecast | Gail Griffin (R), Bob Karp (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alma Hernandez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Forecast | Esteban Flores (R), Rosanna Gabaldón (D) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eva Diaz (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Forecast | Michelle Altherr (R), Brian Fernandez (D) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Frank Steele (R), Analise Ortiz (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Timothy "Tim" Dunn (R), Laura Huber (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | Jim Bishop (R), Flavio Bravo (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Forecast | Kevin Payne (R), Kyle Clayton (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Forecast | Frank Carroll (R), Michael Braun (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Janae Shamp (R), Eric Stafford (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Leo Biasiucci (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |