Wisconsin Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
17 of 33 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 17 seats after November (80% range 15–18) and Republicans 16 (15–18). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Nic Cravillion (R), Mark Becker (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tim Carpenter (D) | wikipedia | |
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 5 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Mike Roberts (R), Robyn Vining (D) | 78% | wikipedia |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Chris Larson (D), Mike Moeller (R) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 9 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Amy Binsfeld (R), Christian Ellis (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Ellen Schutt (R), Adam Duda (D) | 1% | wikipedia |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | John Jagler (R), Sasha Ripley (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 15 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Mark Spreitzer (D), Scott Fleming (R), Christopher Dean (independent) | 92% | wikipedia |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 17 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Howard Marklein (R), Jenna Jacobson (D) | 43% | wikipedia |
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 19 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Rachael Cabral-Guevara (R), Emily Tseffos (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Jim Croft (R), Trevor Jung (D) | 60% | wikipedia |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 23 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Romaine Quinn (R), Jeff Foster (D) | <1% | wikipedia |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Erik Severson (R), Charly Ray (D) | 10% | wikipedia |
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 27 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Dianne Hesselbein (D), Nathan Kalmoe (independent) | wikipedia | |
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 29 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Cory Tomczyk (R), Gillian Battino (D) | 2% | wikipedia |
| 30 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 31 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Jeff Smith (D), Michele Magadance Skinner (R) | 79% | wikipedia |
| 32 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 33 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Chris Kapenga (R), Mike Van Someran (D) | <1% | wikipedia |