New York Assembly
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
76seats for a majority, of 150
150 of 150 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 106 seats after November (80% range 100–110) and Republicans 44 (40–50). In 9 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
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Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Thomas J. Schiavoni (D), Stephen F. Kiely (R) | 98% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Michael J. Szika (D), Jodi A. Giglio (R), Kimberly Wilder (Voter Options) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Joshua P. Slaughter (D), Joseph P. De Stefano (R) | 2% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Rebecca A. Kassay (D), Will Sussman (R) | 84% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Victoria A. Russell (D), Douglas M. Smith (R) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Philip R. Ramos (D), Dennis J. Barravecchio (R) | >99% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Patricia A. Kopp (D), Dawn Marie D. Kuhn (R) | 1% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Lynn M. Trupiano-O'Keefe (D), Michael J. Fitzpatrick (R) | <1% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Christopher J. Walis (D), Michael A. Durso (R) | <1% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Steve Stern (D), Tiffany L. LeGrow (R) | >99% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Kwani B. O'Pharrow (D), Joseph R. Cardinale (R) | 99% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Craig G. Herskowitz (D), David D. Weber Jr. (R) | 18% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Charles D. Lavine (D), Conner Phillip Dunleavy (R) | 98% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | John E. Brooks (D), Shannon R. Fredericks (R) | 2% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Dean Tarulli (D), Paolo A. Pironi (R) | 15% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Kim Keiserman (D), David Hassid (R) | 71% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Sunita J. Lofters (D), John K. Mikulin (R) | 1% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Noah Burroughs (D), Charlene Jackson (R) | >99% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Colleen Connaughton (D), Edward P. Ra (R) | 1% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Meir Fischer (D), Eric Ari Brown (R) | 1% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Judy A. Griffin (D), Irene V. Villacci (R) | 93% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Michaelle C. Solages (D), Robert G. Inzerillo (R) | >99% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Pesach Osina (D), Thomas P. Sullivan (R) | 84% | official |
| 24 | Forecast | David I. Weprin (D), Welson Chang (R) | >99% | official |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nily D. Rozic (D) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Edward C. Braunstein (D), Robert J. Speranza (R) | 97% | official |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sam Berger (D) | official | |
| 28 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Andrew D. Hevesi (D), Jonathan Rinaldi (No Kings), David J. Kemp (4 Our Immigrants) | official | |
| 29 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alicia L. Hyndman (D) | official | |
| 30 | Forecast | Patrick Martinez (D), Brandon P. Castro (R) | 99% | official |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Khaleel M. Anderson (D) | official | |
| 32 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Nathaniel Hezekiah III (D), Paul Nichols (The Answer) | official | |
| 33 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Clyde Vanel (D), Oster Bryan (Working Families) | official | |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian Romero (D) | official | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Larinda C. Hooks (D) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Diana C. Moreno (D), Edward Lee (R) | 99% | official |
| 37 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Samantha Kattan (D) | official | |
| 38 | Forecast | David Orkin (D), Ruben D. Cruz II (R) | 96% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Catalina Cruz (D), Ramses S. Frias (R) | 97% | official |
| 40 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ron Kim (D) | official | |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kalman Yeger (D) | official | |
| 42 | Forecast | Rodneyse Bichotte (D), Herman G. Hall (R) | 99% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Brian-Christopher A. Cunningham (D), Anna Shpilkovskaya (R) | 99% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Robert C. Carroll (D), Glenn Nocera (R) | >99% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Joey Cohen-Saban (D), Michael Novakhov (R) | 54% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Chris McCreight (D), Alec Brook-Krasny (R) | 42% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | William Colton (D), John J. Ricottone (R) | >99% | official |
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Simcha Eichenstein (D) | official | |
| 49 | Forecast | Joyce Xiaoqiong Xie (D), Lester Chang (R) | 3% | official |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emily Gallagher (D) | official | |
| 51 | Forecast | Marcela Mitaynes (D), Carla Danielson (R) | >99% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Jo Anne Simon (D), Brett Wynkoop (R) | 99% | official |
| 53 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Maritza Davila (D) | official | |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christian Celeste Tate (D) | official | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Latrice M. Walker (D) | official | |
| 56 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eon Huntley (D) | official | |
| 57 | Forecast | Phara Souffrant Forrest (D), Yolanda Allison (R) | 99% | official |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Monique Chandler-Waterman (D) | official | |
| 59 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jaime R. Williams (D), Jibreel Jalloh (Working Families) | official | |
| 60 | Forecast | Nikki Lucas (D), Norman H. Ramsay (R) | 99% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Charles D. Fall (D), Casey Marie O’Connor-Manasia (R) | 98% | official |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael W. Reilly Jr. (R) | official | |
| 63 | Forecast | Matthew Mobilia (D), Sam T. Pirozzolo (R) | 8% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Tim Qorraj (D), Michael Tannousis (R) | 2% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Illapa Sairitupac (D), Helen Qiu (R) | 99% | official |
| 66 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Siffert (D) | official | |
| 67 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Linda B. Rosenthal (D) | official | |
| 68 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Diana I. Ayala (D) | official | |
| 69 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eli Northrup (D) | official | |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jordan J.g. Wright (D) | official | |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Al Taylor (D) | official | |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Manny De Los Santos (D) | official | |
| 73 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vanessa Aronson (D) | official | |
| 74 | Forecast | Keith Powers (D), Veronica I. Gonzalez (R) | 99% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Tony Simone (D), Cristina Fontanelli (R) | 99% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Rebecca A. Seawright (D), Louis Puliafito (R) | 99% | official |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Landon C. Dais (D) | official | |
| 78 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | George A. Alvarez (D) | official | |
| 79 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Chantel Jackson (D), Emmanuel A. Findlay Jr. (Conservative) | official | |
| 80 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | John Zaccaro Jr. (D), Denise Smith (Conservative) | official | |
| 81 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeffrey Dinowitz (D) | official | |
| 82 | Forecast | Michael R. Benedetto (D), Irene Guanill (R) | >99% | official |
| 83 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Carl E. Heastie (D), James Washington-Ward (Conservative) | official | |
| 84 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Amanda N. Septimo (D), Tyreek Goodman (Conservative) | official | |
| 85 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emerita Torres (D) | official | |
| 86 | Forecast | Yudelka Tapia (D), Maria Diaz (R), Shery A. Olivo (Conservative) | >99% | official |
| 87 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Karines Reyes (D), Zenobia Merced-Bonilla (Conservative), Zakir Choudhury (People First) | official | |
| 88 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amy Paulin (D) | official | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | J Gary Pretlow (D) | official | |
| 90 | Forecast | Frank Jereis (D), John Isaac (R) | 97% | official |
| 91 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steven Otis (D) | official | |
| 92 | Forecast | MaryJane C. Shimsky (D), Bob Welch (R) | >99% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Chris Burdick (D), Braille Diaz (R) | 98% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Daniel Guzman (D), Matthew J. Slater (R) | 1% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Dana Levenberg (D), Laurie Ryan (R) | >99% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Patrick Carroll (D), Brett L. Yagel (R) | 99% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | Aron B. Wieder (D), Rob Bonomolo (R), Abraham Klein (Conservative) | 97% | official |
| 98 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Karl A. Brabenec (R) | official | |
| 99 | Forecast | Christopher W. Eachus (D), Richard A. Vargus (R) | 99% | official |
| 100 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Paula Elaine Kay (D) | official | |
| 101 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brian M. Maher (R) | official | |
| 102 | Forecast | Janet S. Tweed (D), Marcus Molinaro (R) | 2% | official |
| 103 | Forecast | Sarahana Shrestha (D), Santos Lopez (R) | >99% | official |
| 104 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jonathan G. Jacobson (D) | official | |
| 105 | Forecast | Brooklyn Talarico (D), Anil R. Beephan Jr. (R) | 4% | official |
| 106 | Forecast | Didi Barrett (D), Gregory Campus (R) | 99% | official |
| 107 | Forecast | Chloe E. Pierce (D), Scott H. Bendett (R) | 74% | official |
| 108 | Forecast | John T. McDonald III (D), Joseph J. Adamo III (R) | 97% | official |
| 109 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gabriella Romero (D) | official | |
| 110 | Forecast | Phillip G. Steck (D), Frank A. Mauriello (R) | 99% | official |
| 111 | Forecast | Angelo L. Santabarbara (D), Nicholas J. Sokaris (R) | >99% | official |
| 112 | Forecast | Mario L. Fantini (D), Mary Beth Walsh (R) | 5% | official |
| 113 | Forecast | Carrie Woerner (D), Allen Caruso (R), Thomas J. Kenny (Working Families) | 76% | official |
| 114 | Forecast | John Gunther (D), Matthew J. Simpson (R) | <1% | official |
| 115 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Cashman (D) | official | |
| 116 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Scott A. Gray (R) | official | |
| 117 | Forecast | Dennis Gordon (D), Tammie Nabywaniec (R) | 2% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Colleen Maxwell (D), Heather A. Scribner (R) | 3% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Jonathan E. Lipe (D), Michael C. Gentile (R) | 79% | official |
| 120 | Forecast | Timothy C. Allers (D), Jim Weatherup (R) | 3% | official |
| 121 | Forecast | Vicki Davis (D), Joe Angelino (R) | <1% | official |
| 122 | Forecast | Ihor Semko (D), Brian D. Miller (R) | 1% | official |
| 123 | Forecast | Dan Norton (D), Lynn E. Parker (R), Heather L. Micha (Coalition) | 95% | official |
| 124 | Forecast | Andrew G. Fagan (D), Christopher S. Friend (R) | 3% | official |
| 125 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anna Kelles (D) | official | |
| 126 | Forecast | Ian Phillips (D), John Lemondes Jr. (R) | 19% | official |
| 127 | Forecast | Albert A. Stirpe Jr. (D), Timothy R. Kelly (R) | 99% | official |
| 128 | Forecast | Pamela Jo Hunter (D), Patrick J. Becher (R) | >99% | official |
| 129 | Forecast | Maurice Mo Brown (D), Shawn M. Fiato (R) | 98% | official |
| 130 | Forecast | Carl Fitzsimmons (D), George Dobbins (R), Joseph Lamanna (Common Sense) | 2% | official |
| 131 | Forecast | Phillip Fleming (D), Mark Benjamin (R) | <1% | official |
| 132 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Philip A. Palmesano (R) | official | |
| 133 | Forecast | Gladys Flores (D), Andrea K. Bailey (R) | 1% | official |
| 134 | Forecast | Kurt Vanwuyckhuyse (D), Josh Jensen (R) | 5% | official |
| 135 | Forecast | Jen Lunsford (D), Kalinda Washington (R) | 99% | official |
| 136 | Forecast | Sarah H. Clark (D), Clianda A. Florence (R) | >99% | official |
| 137 | Forecast | Demond L. Meeks (D), Dave Ferris (R), Demond L. (Working Families), Meeks Mercedes Vazquez-Simmons (Mercedes Simmons Cares) | >99% | official |
| 138 | Forecast | Harry B. Bronson (D), Tracy Diflorio (R) | >99% | official |
| 139 | Forecast | Sarah R. Wolcott (D), Stephen M. Hawley (R) | 2% | official |
| 140 | Forecast | William C. Conrad III (D), Mohammed H. Faisal (R) | 98% | official |
| 141 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leah M. Halton-Pope (D) | official | |
| 142 | Forecast | Patrick B. Burke (D), Gary A. Dickson (R) | 89% | official |
| 143 | Forecast | Ryan J. Taughrin (D), Patrick J. Chludzinski (R) | 42% | official |
| 144 | Forecast | Donna L. Dye Sholk (D), Paul A. Bologna (R) | 2% | official |
| 145 | Forecast | Nathan D. McMurray (D), Becky Wydysh (R) | 5% | official |
| 146 | Forecast | Karen M. McMahon (D), Terence G. McGuire (R) | >99% | official |
| 147 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David J. DiPietro (R) | official | |
| 148 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joseph Sempolinski (R) | official | |
| 149 | Forecast | Adam L. Bojak (D), Frank M. Bogulski (R) | 97% | official |
| 150 | Forecast | Thomas A. Carle (D), Andrew M. Molitor (R) | 1% | official |