Arizona House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
60 of 60 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 25 seats after November (80% range 22–28) and Republicans 35 (32–38). Neither party wins a majority in 3% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 30 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Selina Bliss (R), Quang Huu Nguyen (R), Sandy Zalecki (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.8 | Paul Carver (R), Justin Wilmeth (R), Stephanie Simacek (D) | 76% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | George Khalaf (R), Cody Reim (R), Julie Gable (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Pamela Carter (R), Matt Gress (R), Tammy Caputi (D) | 40% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Sarah Liguori (D), Aaron Márquez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Mae Peshlakai (D), Ian Teller (D), Brendan Trachsel (Green) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Walter "Walt" Blackman (R), David Cook Sr. (R), Samuel "Sam" Martin (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Donald Hawker (R), Janeen Connolly (D), Brian Garcia (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Bradley D. Bettencourt (R), Lorena Austin (D), Jacob D. Martinez (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Justin Olson (R), James Rogers (R), Brian Calaway (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Cesar Aleman (R), Joseph Charles Dailey (R), Junelle Cavero (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | David Richardson (R), Armando Montero (D), Stacey Travers (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Kevin Hartke (R), Janet Weninger (R), Racquel "Rockee" Armstrong (D) | 41% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Tyler Andrew Farnsworth (R), Laurin Hendrix (R), Mary Rose (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Neal Carter (R), Michael Way (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Chris Lopez (R), Teresa Martinez (R), Julia Romero Gusse (D) | 24% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.7 | Rachel "Jones" Keshel (R), John Winchester (R), Hollace "Holly" Lyon (D) | 67% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Bob Dohse (R), Nancy Gutierrez (D), Chris Mathis (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Lupe Diaz (R), David Gowan (R), Jackie O'Donnell Anderson (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Sally Ann Gonzales (D), Betty Villegas (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Christopher Kibbey (R), Consuelo Hernandez (D), Miranda Lopez (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Elda Luna-Nájera (D), Betsy Munoz (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Gary Garcia Snyder (R), Michele Peña (R), Emilia Cortez (D) | 36% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Delores McLaughlin (R), Lisbeth Arescurenaga (D), Alberto Flores (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Michael Carbone (R), Nickolas "Nick" Kupper (R), Tiffany Byrne (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.0 | Jonathan McKenna (R), Frank Roberts (R), Cesar Aguilar (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.4 | Lisa Fink (R), Tony Rivero (R), Deborah Howard (D) | 38% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | David Livingston (R), Beverly Pingerelli (R), Barbara Fike (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Steve Montenegro (R), James Taylor (R), Christine Marie Scianna (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Mike Gannuscio (R), David Rose (R), Brian McMahan (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |