Hawaii Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
15 of 25 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 22 seats after November (80% range 21–22) and Republicans 3 (3–4). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 2 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Joy San Buenaventura (D), Frederic Fogel (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Troy N. Hashimoto (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ronald D. Kouchi (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Forecast | Stanley Chang (D), David Crosswell (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jackson D. Sayama (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Carol Fukunaga (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 13 | Forecast | Tricia Kwai Lin Nakamatsu (D), Wallyn Kanoelani Christian (R) | 95% | news guide |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Donna Mercado Kim (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Glenn Wakai (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Donovan Dela Cruz (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Forecast | Danielle Bass (D), Kelly Kitashima (R), Max Hanna (nonpartisan) | >99% | news guide |
| 19 | Forecast | Rachele Lamosao (D), Elijah Pierick (R) | 97% | news guide |
| 20 | Forecast | Markus Owens (D), Bob McDermott (R) | 7% | news guide |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Gabbard (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Chris Lee (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |