Vermont Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
30 of 30 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 19 seats after November (80% range 16–21) and Republicans 11 (9–14). Neither party wins a majority in 3% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 15 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.6 | Ruth Hardy (D), Steven Heffernan (R), Andrew Klein (R), Hannah Sessions (D) | 93% | official |
| Bennington | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Seth Bongartz (D), Robert F. Plunkett (D), Rachel Shaw (PROGRESSIVE), Lawrence "Spike" Whitmire (R), Josh R. Williams (R) | 96% | official |
| Caledonia | Forecast | Scott L. Beck (R), David M. Roth (D) | 5% | official |
| Chittenden Central | Decided: 2 Democratic, 1 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Nikhil Goyal (D), Martine Larocque Gulick (D), Louis "Louie" Manno (R), Tanya Vyhovsky (PROG/DEM) | official | |
| Chittenden North | Forecast | Ashley R. Bartley (R), Irene Wrenner (D) | 20% | official |
| Chittenden Southeast | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Thomas Chittenden (D), Kesha Ram Hinsdale (D), Virginia "Ginny" Lyons (D), Bruce Roy (R), Javen Sears (R), Rohan St Marthe (R) | >99% | official |
| Essex | Decided: only a Republican is running | Russ Ingalls (R) | official | |
| Franklin | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.7 | Alexander Bobella (D), Randy Brock (R), Robert W. Norris (R), A. Gregory Rainville (D) | 91% | official |
| Grand Isle | Forecast | Pat Brennan (R), Kim Gleason (D) | 27% | official |
| Lamoille | Decided: only a Republican is running | Richard A. Westman (R) | official | |
| Orange | Forecast | John K. Benson (R), Monique Priestley (D) | 17% | official |
| Orleans | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Morley III (R) | official | |
| Rutland | Decided: 0 Democratic, 3 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Brian "Bc" Collamore (R), David H. Weeks (R), Terry K. Williams (R), Dave Wolk (independent) | official | |
| Washington | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Ann Cummings (D), Rob Laclair (R), Christopher A. Neddo (R), Andrew Perchlik (D), Peter Schmeeckle (R), Anne Watson (D) | 99% | official |
| Windham | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Dale L. Gassett (R), Wendy K. Harrison (D), Nader Hashim (D), Rusty E. Sage (R) | >99% | official |
| Windsor | Elects 3: expected Democratic seats 3.0 | Elizabeth Burrows (D), Jonathan Gleason (R), Joe Izzo (independent), Joe Major (D), Andrea Murray (R), Rebecca White (D), Jack Williams (R) | 99% | official |