Washington Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
24 of 49 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 30 seats after November (80% range 28–31) and Republicans 19 (18–21). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeff Holy (R) | wikipedia | |
| 7 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Ronald McCoy (independent), Shelly Short (R) | wikipedia | |
| 8 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Gabe Galbraith (R), Nikki Torres (R) | wikipedia | |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 13 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alex Ybarra (R) | wikipedia | |
| 14 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 15 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeremie Dufault (R) | wikipedia | |
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 21 | Forecast | Riaz Khan (R), Marko Liias (D) | >99% | wikipedia |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Deborah Krishnadasan (D), Gary Parker (R) | 89% | wikipedia |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 28 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 29 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | David Anderson (D), Sharlett Mena (D) | wikipedia | |
| 30 | Forecast | Michael Rutland (R), Claire Wilson (D) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 31 | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) | Phil Fortunato (R), Tamara Stramel (D) | 15% | wikipedia |
| 32 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Cindy Ryu (D), Jesse Salomon (D) | wikipedia | |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tina Orwall (D) | wikipedia | |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Emily Alvarado (D) | wikipedia | |
| 35 | Forecast | Drew MacEwen (R), Carolina Mejia (D) | 10% | wikipedia |
| 36 | Forecast | Jillian England (R), Noel Frame (D) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 37 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Tatiana Brown (D), Chipalo Street (D) | wikipedia | |
| 38 | Forecast | Brad Bender (R), June Robinson (D) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 41 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 42 | Forecast | Erika Creydt (R), Michael Shepard (D) | 72% | wikipedia |
| 43 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jamie Pedersen (D), Hannah Sabio-Howell (D) | wikipedia | |
| 44 | Forecast | Sherri Larkin (R), John Lovick (D) | 99% | wikipedia |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Manka Dhingra (D) | wikipedia | |
| 46 | Forecast | Sandra Stephens (R), Javier Valdez (D) | 97% | wikipedia |
| 47 | Forecast | Claudia Kauffman (D), Kristina Soltys (R) | 93% | wikipedia |
| 48 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Vandana Slatter (D) | wikipedia | |
| 49 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) |