Utah House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
38seats for a majority, of 75
75 of 75 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 15 seats after November (80% range 13–18) and Republicans 60 (57–62). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Jason O’dell (Constitution), Thomas Peterson (R), Chris Reid (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 2 | Forecast | Mike Petersen (R), Barbara J. Haggerty (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 3 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Jason E. Thompson (R), Patrick Belmont (independent) | official (archive copy) | |
| 4 | Forecast | Tiara Auxier (R), Zane Woolstenhulme (D) | 2% | official (archive copy) |
| 5 | Forecast | Kendra Penry (D), Casey Snider (R) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 6 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | James Rich (Forward), Rob Bishop (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 7 | Forecast | Bianca Mittendorf (D), Ryan D. Wilcox (R) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 8 | Forecast | Kim James (D), Libby Shelton (Forward), Jason B Kyle (R) | 6% | official (archive copy) |
| 9 | Forecast | Jake Sawyer (R), Angela Choberka (D) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 10 | Forecast | Rosemary T Lesser (D), Jim Alvey (R) | 51% | official (archive copy) |
| 11 | Forecast | Katy Hall (R), Dave Calder (D) | 5% | official (archive copy) |
| 12 | Forecast | Anna Graff (D), Mike Schultz (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 13 | Forecast | Erik R. Craythorne (R), Jeffrey Anderson (D), Tony De Mille (Forward) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 14 | Forecast | John Taylor (R), Brandon Young (D) | 5% | official (archive copy) |
| 15 | Forecast | Anne Berbert (D), Ariel Defay (R) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 16 | Forecast | Abigail Treasure (D), Bob J Stevenson (R) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 17 | Forecast | Lili Bitner (R), Eric Last (D) | 7% | official (archive copy) |
| 18 | Forecast | Scott Troxel (D), Paul Cutler (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Raymond P. Ward (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 20 | Forecast | Melissa Ballard (R), Phil Graves (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Stephen Otterstrom (D) | official (archive copy) | |
| 22 | Forecast | Char Varga (R), Jen Dailey-Provost (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 23 | Forecast | Cabot W Nelson (Forward), Franklin D. Robinson (R), Hoang Nguyen (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 24 | Forecast | Grant Amjad Miller (D), Braeden J. Oswald (R) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 25 | Forecast | Richard T Nowak (R), Angela Romero (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 26 | Forecast | Michael E Finch (D), Matt Macpherson (R) | 16% | official (archive copy) |
| 27 | Forecast | Anthony Loubet (R), Liz Oates (D) | 8% | official (archive copy) |
| 28 | Forecast | Nicholeen Peck (R), Wales Nematollahi (Forward), Anita Dalrymple (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 29 | Forecast | Sheldon Birch (R), Sara Snow (D), Tynley Bean (Forward), Jonathan Garrard (Constitution) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 30 | Forecast | Dave Parke (R), Jake Fitisemanu (D) | 89% | official (archive copy) |
| 31 | Forecast | Melody Jones (R), Verona Mauga (D) | 98% | official (archive copy) |
| 32 | Forecast | Aileen Hampton (R), Sahara Hayes (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 33 | Forecast | Doug Owens (D), Anna Reeves (R) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Julie Jackson (D) | official (archive copy) | |
| 35 | Forecast | Monique I. Ketcham (R), Rosalba Dominguez (D) | 87% | official (archive copy) |
| 36 | Forecast | Jim Dunnigan (R), Blake Townsend (D) | 8% | official (archive copy) |
| 37 | Forecast | Ashlee Matthews (D), Casey Saxton (R) | 95% | official (archive copy) |
| 38 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Sergio Sotelo (independent), Chris McConnehey (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Drew Howells (D), Ken Ivory (R) | 7% | official (archive copy) |
| 40 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew Stoddard (D) | official (archive copy) | |
| 41 | Forecast | Darren Croft (R), John Arthur (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 42 | Forecast | Clint Okerlund (R), Iva Williams (D) | 12% | official (archive copy) |
| 43 | Forecast | Steve Eliason (R), Ofa Matagi (D) | 7% | official (archive copy) |
| 44 | Forecast | Jess Birtcher (D), Jordan Teuscher (R) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 45 | Forecast | Tracy Miller (R), Rod Moser (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 46 | Forecast | Braxten Rutherford (D), Cal Roberts (R) | 5% | official (archive copy) |
| 47 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark A. Strong (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 48 | Forecast | Benyde Walker (D), Jake Hunsaker (R) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 49 | Forecast | Lillian Bowles (D), Candice B. Pierucci (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 50 | Forecast | Stephanie Gricius (R), Kristin Meyer (D) | 2% | official (archive copy) |
| 51 | Forecast | Leah Hansen (R), Brett Nielsen (D) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 52 | Forecast | Nicole Melling (D), Cory Maloy (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 53 | Forecast | Kevin R Slater (D), Kay J. Christofferson (R), John Boyd (Forward) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 54 | Forecast | Kristina Robinson (D), Kristen S. Chevrier (R) | 2% | official (archive copy) |
| 55 | Forecast | Travis Hysell (D), Jon Hawkins (R) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 56 | Forecast | Natassja Grossman (D), Val L. Peterson (R) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 57 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nelson Abbott (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 58 | Forecast | David Shallenberger (R), Karli Black (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 59 | Forecast | Celeste T. Johnson (D), Luke Searle (R) | 5% | official (archive copy) |
| 60 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Grant Pace (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 61 | Forecast | Lisa Shepherd (R), Alan Jimenez (D), Jennifer K Doud (Constitution) | 5% | official (archive copy) |
| 62 | Forecast | Norm Thurston (R), David Chappell (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 63 | Forecast | Mark Youngquist (D), Stephen L. Whyte (R), Julie Smith (Forward) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 64 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Alan Wessman (independent), Jackie Larson (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 65 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Doug Welton (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 66 | Forecast | Russ Hatch (Constitution), Breanne Mashek (D), Troy Shelley (R) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 67 | Forecast | Carl Ingwell (D), Bird Jr. (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 68 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Sonya Ray (Constitution), Scott H Chew (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 69 | Forecast | Tracie Yellowman Tso (D), Logan J. Monson (R) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 70 | Forecast | Carl R. Albrecht (R), Zeno B. Parry (Forward), Stacey D. Pendergraft (D) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 71 | Forecast | Rex P Shipp (R), Thomas Loveheart (D) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 72 | Forecast | Eva M Weldon (D), April A Pinkston (Constitution), Joseph Elison (R) | 2% | official (archive copy) |
| 73 | Forecast | Glenn D Webb (D), Colin W. Jack (R) | 2% | official (archive copy) |
| 74 | Forecast | R. Neil Walter (R), Jeffrey N Lipe (D) | 3% | official (archive copy) |
| 75 | Forecast | Rebecca Winsor (D), Walt Brooks (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |