Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

The 2026 record

The sealed forecast, the official counts and the score, kept as they were

Not yet. The 2026 forecast is still being made; it seals at midnight Eastern on November 3 and this page then holds the record. Until then: the live forecast, the election-night guide, and the sealed files' fingerprints on the data page.

The counts

Every race, the official count beside what the forecast said: results and the forecast. FutureBallot does not call races; certification is each state's.

How the forecast did

Published on accuracy once 95% of each office's races are certified, under rules written down on September 30, 2026.

State legislatures: scored under their own registration once states certify.

What we wrote

  • WK1: State Chambers That Are Closer Than They Appear
  • WK2: The Close House Races Where Every Poll Is Partisan
  • WK3: Who Holds the Pen on Congressional Maps After November
  • WK4: The Elections Decided Before Anyone Votes in November
  • WK5: How Many Americans Have No Competitive Race on Their Ballot?

Every number on this page is read from a file a job wrote; nothing is typed in. The forecast, the counts and the score are kept as they were. What comes next: upcoming contests.