Maine House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
67%chance of a Democratic majority
33%chance of a Republican majority
76seats for a majority, of 151
151 of 151 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 79 seats after November (80% range 69–89) and Republicans 72 (62–82). In 18 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Jennifer Levesque (D), Austin Theriault (R) | 1% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Roger Albert (R), Roland Martin (D) | 9% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Susan Bernard (R), David McCrea (D) | 29% | official |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Timothy Guerrette (R) | official | |
| 5 | Forecast | Douglas Carlisle Jr. (R), Lori Kenneson (D) | 24% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Donald Ardell (R), Melanie Tompkins (D) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Jantzen Craine (R), Matthew Rush (D) | 3% | official |
| 8 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tracy Quint (R) | official | |
| 9 | Forecast | Arthur Mingo (R), Nicole Richards (D) | 1% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Genevieve Lemire (D), William Tuell (R) | <1% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Keith Newman (D), Tiffany Strout (R) | <1% | official |
| 12 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Roy Gott (independent), Thomas Hart Jr. (R) | official | |
| 13 | Forecast | Michael Cunningham II (D), Russell White (R) | 14% | official |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gary Friedmann (D) | official | |
| 15 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Holly Eaton (D), Clifford Noyes (independent) | official | |
| 16 | Forecast | Nina Milliken (D), Eric White (R) | 98% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Steven Bishop (R), Ronald Russell (D) | 31% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Jonathan Goble (D), Mathew McIntyre (R) | 2% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Richard Campbell (R), David Ulrich (D) | 3% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Patrick Jude (R), Dani O'Halloran (D) | 85% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Frank Casella (R), Ambureen Rana (D) | >99% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Laura Supica (D) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Brian Ames (R), Victoria Kornfield (D) | 94% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sean Faircloth (D) | official | |
| 25 | Forecast | Laurie Osher (D), Anthony Weaver (R) | >99% | official |
| 26 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | James Dill (D), Adam Shaw (independent) | official | |
| 27 | Forecast | Devan Arnold (D), David Giles (R) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Irene Gifford (R), Gordon Street (D) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Nancy McDowell (D), Nancy Theriault (R) | 1% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | John Contreni (D), James White (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Eric Boothroyd (D), Andrew Torbett (R) | 2% | official |
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shawn Lancaster (R) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Michael Brayson (D), Kenneth Fredette (R) | 2% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Stacey Guerin (R), James McClymer (D) | 3% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Debora Farnham (D), James Thorne (R) | 3% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Clifton Foster III (D), Kimberly Haggan (R) | 4% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Alan Orcutt (D), Reagan Paul (R) | 13% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Benjamin Hymes (R), Kayla Miller (D) | 11% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Madison Cook (D), Michael Nicholson (R) | >99% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Joseph McLaughlin (R), D. Ray (D) | 94% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Joshua Gerritsen (D), Cory Raymond (R) | >99% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Melissa Byer (R), Valli Geiger (D) | 99% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Christopher Austin (R), Rhiannon Hampson (D) | 93% | official |
| 44 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Shawn Saindon (independent), Ray Thombs Jr. (R) | official | |
| 45 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Clinton Collamore (independent), Rebecca Stephens (R) | official | |
| 46 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jennifer Mayher (D), Kristine Poland (independent) | official | |
| 47 | Forecast | Wayne Farrin (D), Chester Grover III (R) | 86% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Erik Hobson (R), Charlotte Nutt (D) | >99% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Suzanne Andresen (R), Trent Vellella (D) | 99% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Jedediah Rice II (R), David Sinclair (D) | >99% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Rafael Macias (D), Annalyse Sarvinas (R) | 99% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Sally Cluchey (D), David Guilmette (R) | 79% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Richard Goldman (D), Michael Lemelin (R) | 3% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Karen Montell (D), Michelle Tucker (R) | 95% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Maureen AuCoin (D), Charles Hippler IV (R) | 71% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Randall Greenwood (R), Robin Upton-Sukeforth (D) | 2% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Tavis Hasenfus (D), David Potvin (R) | 99% | official |
| 58 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Dexter Bridges Jr. (R), Sharon Frost (independent) | official | |
| 59 | Forecast | Katrina Couch Ray-Saulis (D), John Reny (R) | 84% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Wyatt Beaulieu (R), William Bridgeo (D) | 97% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Alicia Collins (R), Robin Crawley (D) | 2% | official |
| 62 | Forecast | Katrina Smith (R), Pamela Swift (D) | <1% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | Paul Flynn (R), Taylor West (D) | 2% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Flavia DeBrito (D), Shawn Packard (R) | >99% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Cassie Julia (D), Jeremy McArthur (R) | 99% | official |
| 66 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael Perkins (R) | official | |
| 67 | Forecast | Shawn Dixon (R), Matthew Townsend (D) | 46% | official |
| 68 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Amanda Collamore (R), Zachary Lejonhud (independent) | official | |
| 69 | Forecast | Jessica Blanchard (D), Dean Cray (R) | <1% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Joseph Almand (D), Jennifer Poirier (R) | 1% | official |
| 71 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Ducharme III (R) | official | |
| 72 | Forecast | Cynthia Soma-Hernandez (D), Douglas Thomas (R) | 3% | official |
| 73 | Forecast | Daniel Simonds (D), Michael Soboleski (R) | 4% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Russell Black (R), Marc Edwards (D) | 1% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Randall Gauvin (R), H. Landry (D) | 63% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Trevor Doiron (D), Sheila Lyman (R) | 1% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | Arlie Hetrick Jr. (D), Tammy Schmersal-Burgess (R) | 2% | official |
| 78 | Forecast | Rachel Henderson (R), Woodleigh Hughes (D) | 4% | official |
| 79 | Forecast | Michael Lance (R), Brianna Lueck (D) | 3% | official |
| 80 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Azalea Cormier (independent), Ernest Fitts IV (R) | official | |
| 81 | Forecast | Christopher Easton (D), Peter Wood (R) | 42% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Christopher Lewey (D), Caleb Ness (R) | 9% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Timothy Becker (D), Marygrace Cimino (R) | 38% | official |
| 84 | Forecast | Cassandra Dove (D), Mark Walker (R) | 1% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Adrienne Paul (R), Paul Welch (D) | 6% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Abigail Geer (D), Rolf Olsen Jr. (R) | 28% | official |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Boyer Jr. (R) | official | |
| 88 | Forecast | Quentin Chapman (R), Dana Staples (D) | 12% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | James Berube (R), Adam Lee (D) | 98% | official |
| 90 | Forecast | Pamela Hart (D), James Sorcek (R) | 50% | official |
| 91 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeffrey Timberlake (R) | official | |
| 92 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Scott Girardin (independent), Stephen Wood (R) | official | |
| 93 | Forecast | Susan Longchamps (R), Julia McCabe (D) | 96% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Janet Beaudoin (R), Scott Harriman (D) | 99% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Kiernan Majerus-Collins (D), Bret Martel (R) | 95% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Kerryl Clement (R), Luke Jensen (D) | 66% | official |
| 97 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dale Crafts (R) | official | |
| 98 | Forecast | William St. Michel (R), Kilton Webb (D) | 81% | official |
| 99 | Forecast | Cheryl Golek (D), Braeden Webber (R) | 99% | official |
| 100 | Forecast | Daniel Ankeles (D), Brett Barrett (R) | >99% | official |
| 101 | Forecast | Poppy Arford (D), Ravi Jackson (R) | 96% | official |
| 102 | Forecast | Henry Lawrence III (R), Maura Pillsbury (D) | >99% | official |
| 103 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Karin Orenstein (D) | official | |
| 104 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | L. Pfeifle (independent), R. Winslow (R) | official | |
| 105 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anne Graham (D) | official | |
| 106 | Forecast | Barbara Bagshaw (R), Bradley Youngs (D) | 20% | official |
| 107 | Forecast | Joseph Campbell (D), Mark Cooper (R) | 33% | official |
| 108 | Forecast | Kelly Dearborn (R), Parnell Terry (D) | 83% | official |
| 109 | Forecast | Diana Kushnar (R), Seven Siegel (D) | 95% | official |
| 110 | Forecast | Jason Copp (R), Christina Mitchell (D) | >99% | official |
| 111 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Amy Kuhn (D) | official | |
| 112 | Forecast | Lauren Jones (R), Sean Mahoney (D) | >99% | official |
| 113 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Grayson Lookner (D) | official | |
| 114 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | April Fournier (D) | official | |
| 115 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew Zarro (D) | official | |
| 116 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Samuel Zager (D) | official | |
| 117 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matthew Moonen (D) | official | |
| 118 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yusuf Yusuf (D) | official | |
| 119 | Forecast | Michael Dixon (D), Jacob Wakem (R) | >99% | official |
| 120 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason Shedlock (D) | official | |
| 121 | Forecast | Lucy Perkins (D), Meagan Smith (R) | >99% | official |
| 122 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matthew Beck (D) | official | |
| 123 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle Boyer (D) | official | |
| 124 | Forecast | Scott Doherty (R), Mary Lindstrom (independent), Eric Nathanson (D) | >99% | official |
| 125 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kelly Murphy (D) | official | |
| 126 | Forecast | Andrew Gattine (D), Ethan Mongue (R) | 96% | official |
| 127 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Morgan Rielly (D) | official | |
| 128 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Lawrence McWilliams (independent), Suzanne Salisbury (D) | official | |
| 129 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marshall Archer (D) | official | |
| 130 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Lynn Copeland (D), Todd Davis (independent) | official | |
| 131 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Kenneth Blow (independent), Robert Kelly (D) | official | |
| 132 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ryan Fecteau (D) | official | |
| 133 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Marc Lessard (undeclared), Marc Malon II (D) | official | |
| 134 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Allen Daggett (independent), Traci Gere (D) | official | |
| 135 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Scott Craig (independent), Lisa Pratt (D) | official | |
| 136 | Forecast | Michelle Conners (D), John Eder (R) | 7% | official |
| 137 | Forecast | Nathan Carlow (R), Charles Tilburg (D) | 3% | official |
| 138 | Forecast | Jonathan Kinney (R), Oliver McAvoy (D) | 1% | official |
| 139 | Forecast | Dean LePage (D), Jamie Newton (R) | <1% | official |
| 140 | Forecast | Wayne Parry (R), Kirstan Watson (D) | 3% | official |
| 141 | Forecast | Marc Boisse (R), Rebecca Flood Andrews (D), David Mongeau II (independent) | 62% | official |
| 142 | Forecast | Ayn Hanselmann (D), Domingo Torres (R) | 68% | official |
| 143 | Forecast | John Henkelman (D), Melissa Simpson (R) | 11% | official |
| 144 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Corinna Cole (independent), Karen Gerrish (R) | official | |
| 145 | Forecast | Caleb Chase (R), Kristin Davis (D) | 45% | official |
| 146 | Forecast | Bradley Moulton (R), Walter Runte Jr. (D) | 97% | official |
| 147 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Holly Sargent (D) | official | |
| 148 | Forecast | Thomas Lavigne (R), Marissa Tasker (D) | 3% | official |
| 149 | Forecast | Mallory Cook (D), Timothy Towne (R) | 94% | official |
| 150 | Forecast | Alexandros Orestis (D), Mark Zimmer (R) | 99% | official |
| 151 | Forecast | Suzanne Johnson (R), Kristi Mathieson (D) | >99% | official |
| Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians | Non-voting tribal representative, not elected in November | |||
| Passamaquoddy Tribe | Non-voting tribal representative, not elected in November |