Washington House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
50seats for a majority, of 98
98 of 98 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 61 seats after November (80% range 57–66) and Republicans 37 (32–41).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Shelley Kloba (D), Cliff Moon (R), Davina Duerr (D), Maggie Wang (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 2 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Matt Marshall (R), Angela Taylor (D), Andrew Barkis (R), William Dehnel (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Natalie Poulson (R), Luc Jasmin III (D), Natasha Hill (D), Tony Kiepe (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 4 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Rob Chase (R), Rob Tupper (D), Hillary Q. Pham (R), Trent Maier (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Lisa Callan (D), Patrick Peacock (R), Zach Hall (D), Michelle Bennett (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Jonathan Bingle (R), Julia Payne (D), Michaela Kelso (D), Alan Nolan (R) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Hunter Abell (R), Andrew Engell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Decided: 0 Democratic, 2 Republican on the ballot for these seats | April Connors (R), Stephanie Barnard (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Joe Schmick (R), Karina Wallace (D), Mary Dye (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 10 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Dave Paul (D), Tim Hazelo (R), Clyde Shavers (D), Robert Hicks (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | David Hackney (D), Ashley Fedan (D), Steve Bergquist (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.6 | Mike Steele (R), Maggie Adams (D), Brian Burnett (R), Stacy Willoughby (D) | 43% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 13 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Deanna Martinez (R), Joshua Thompson (R), Tom Dent (R), Juan "Jerry" Garcia (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.7 | Gloria Mendoza (R), Chelsea Dimas (D), Deb Manjarrez (R), Ezequiel Morfin (D) | 51% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Reedy Berg (R), Chris Corry (R), Jack McEntire (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Skyler Rude (R), Derek Sarley (D), Mark Klicker (R), Kyle Palmer (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.2 | Diana H. Perez (D), David Stuebe (R), Ben Christly (D), Kevin Waters (R) | 20% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.6 | Deken Letinich (D), John Ley (R), Randi L. Knott (D), Stephanie McClintock (R) | 43% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Terry Carlson (D), Joel McEntire (R), Jim Walsh (R), Kevin Moynihan (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Ed Orcutt (R), Evan Jones (D), Peter Abbarno (R), Andy Zahn (D) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Lillian Ortiz-Self (D), Bruce Guthrie (Libertarian), Strom Peterson (D), Jason Moon (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Lisa Parshley (D), Jamie Keenan-deVargas (D), Beth Doglio (D), Don Hewett (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Greg Nance (D), Lance Byrd (R), Tarra Simmons (D), Daria Ilgen (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Marcia Kelbon (independent), Kaylee Kuehn (D), Adam Bernbaum (D), Eric W. Pratt (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.3 | Cyndy Jacobsen (R), Jenn Marie Strickling (D), Michael Keaton (R), David Berg (D) | 27% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.4 | Katy Cornell (R), Renee Hernandez Greenfield (D), David Olson (R), Adison Richards (D) | 84% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Jake Fey (D), Laurie Jinkins (D), Carole Sue Braaten (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Dan Bronoske (D), Mari Leavitt (D), Kathy Richardson (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Joe Bushnell (D), Patrick Stickney (D), Krista Perez (D), Melanie Morgan (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Jamila E. Taylor (D), Tiffany Bowyer (R), Kristine Reeves (D), Paul McDaniel (independent) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Joshua Penner (R), John Bielka (D), Drew Stokesbary (R), Stephen Szczurko-Walton (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Lauren Davis (D), Imraan Siddiqi (D), Keith Scully (D), Danica Noble (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Mia Su-Ling Gregerson (D), Yuri Marinchik (R), Edwin Obras (D), Chris Martinez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Joe Fitzgibbon (D), Mary Anito (D), Brianna K. Thomas (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.0 | Travis Couture (R), Maria Littlesun (D), Dan Griffey (R), Jim Pierson (D) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Liz Berry (D), Julia Grant Reed (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Jaelynn Scott (D), Evon McCorkle (independent), Kelabe Tewolde (D), Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Decided: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican on the ballot for these seats | Julio Cortes (D), Mary Fosse (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 0.1 | Kathryn Lewandowsky (D), Sam Low (R), Ida Keeley (D), Steve Ewing (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Alex Ramel (D), Joseph Segault (independent), Debra Lekanoff (D), Cindy Carter (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Janice Zahn (D), Elle Nguyen (R), My-Linh T Thai (D), Michael Rosen (independent) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.8 | Alicia Rule (D), Misty Flowers (R), Joe Timmons (D), Justin Pike (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Nicole Macri (D), Alby Clendennin (D), Shaun Scott (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | April Berg (D), Tonya Stadlman (R), Brandy Donaghy (D), Chris Elder (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Roger Goodman (D), JoAnn Tolentino (R), Vanessa Kritzer (D), John P Gibbons (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Darya Farivar (D), Rodney 'Star' Thornley (independent), Gerry Pollet (D), Will Dreher (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 1.9 | Chris Stearns (D), Ted Cooke (R), Debra Jean Entenman (D), Cobi Clark (Libertarian) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Osman Salahuddin (D), Jeffery Poppe (R), Jessica Forsythe (D), Amy Walen (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Elects 2: expected Democratic seats 2.0 | Monica Jurado Stonier (D), Derek Thompson (R), Kim D. Harless (D), Sarah Mittelman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |