Colorado House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
65 of 65 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 45 seats after November (80% range 41–48) and Republicans 20 (17–24). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Javier Mabrey (D), Joseph Montoya (R) | >99% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Scott Baldermann (D), Carey Marin (R) | >99% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Gena Ozols (D), Rebecca Winegar (R) | >99% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Ellwood Ervin (R), Cecelia Espenoza (D), Bill Hare (Forward Party) | >99% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Justine Sandoval (D), Johnnie W. Johnson (R) | >99% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Iris Halpern (D), Kathleen Angel (R) | >99% | official |
| 7 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jennifer Bacon (D), Jeff Wilson (Libertarian) | official | |
| 8 | Forecast | Carolyn Barnes (R), Lindsay Gilchrist (D), Jesse Lashawn Parris (Unity Party) | >99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Tom Cowhick (R), Monica VanBuskirk (D) | >99% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Junie Joseph (D) | official | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Karen McCormick (D) | official | |
| 12 | Forecast | Ryan Rhatigan (R), Kyle Brown (D) | >99% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Consuelo Redhorse (D), Miguel Martinez (R) | 93% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Ava Flanell (R), Sarah Emery (D) | 2% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Jeff K. Livingston (D), Pricella Tiegen (R), Doug Jones (Libertarian) | 11% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Jill Haffley (R), Steph Vigil (D), John C Hjersman (Libertarian) | 68% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Regina English (D), Laura Martin (R), John Michael Angle (Libertarian) | 98% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Amy T Paschal (D), Adriana Cuva (R) | 94% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Dan Woog (R), Jillaire McMillan (D) | 48% | official |
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jarvis Caldwell (R) | official | |
| 21 | Forecast | Brenda Miller (R), Michelle Tweed (D) | 10% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Michael Pierson (D), Ken deGraaf (R) | 3% | official |
| 23 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Alexis Hoffkling (D), Ross Metler (Libertarian) | official | |
| 24 | Forecast | Lisa Feret (D), Kristopher Johnson (R) | 98% | official |
| 25 | Forecast | Mark Herzfeld (R), Tammy Story (D) | 91% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Meghan Lukens (D), James Kellogg (R) | 98% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Danielle Varda (D), Eric Bodenstab (R) | 96% | official |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Rein (D) | official | |
| 29 | Forecast | Kristine Ireland (R), Lori Goldstein (D) | >99% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Rebekah Stewart (D), William Tyler Switzer (R) | >99% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Gabriel Cervantes (D), Ray Roll (R) | 95% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Michelle D. Lee (R), Chris VanDijk (D) | 95% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Kenny Van Nguyen (D), Nate Jorgensen (R) | 99% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Craig Sullivan (R), Jenny Willford (D) | 93% | official |
| 35 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lorena Garcia (D) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Michael Carter (D), Paul E. Nelson (R), Andrew Gibson (Libertarian) | 98% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Jill Thompson (R), Chad Clifford (D) | 98% | official |
| 38 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Gretchen Rydin (D), Tim Martin (Center Party), Norm Olsen (Libertarian), Allison Madrigal (independent) | official | |
| 39 | Forecast | Brandi Bradley (R), Christian Schilder (D) | 4% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Clinton Porter (R), Naquetta Ricks (D) | 99% | official |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jamie Jackson (D) | official | |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sarah Amelia Woodson (D) | official | |
| 43 | Forecast | Robert "Bob" Marshall (D), Nate Marsh (R) | 88% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Anthony Hartsook (R), Richard Bowness (D), John H Sutton (Libertarian) | 4% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Michael Clarkson (D), Max Brooks (R), Caryn Ann Harlos (Libertarian) | 1% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Jonathan Post (R), Tisha Mauro (D) | 91% | official |
| 47 | Forecast | Vic Meyers (D), Ty Winter (R) | <1% | official |
| 48 | Forecast | Carlos Barron (R), Dez Packard (D), Eric E. Joss (Libertarian) | 2% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Michael Sheperek (R), Lesley Smith (D) | >99% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Ryan Gonzalez (R), Tommy Butler (D) | 40% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Amy Parks (R), Jacki Marsh (D) | 46% | official |
| 52 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Yara Zokaie (D), Steve Yurash (Center Party) | official | |
| 53 | Forecast | Daniel Frick (R), Andy Boesenecker (D) | >99% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Jason Bias (R), Mallory Martin (D) | 2% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | Rick Taggart (R), Brittni Packard (D) | 3% | official |
| 56 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Chris Richardson (R), Amy L. Lunde (Libertarian) | official | |
| 57 | Forecast | Elizabeth Velasco (D), Russ Andrews (R) | 97% | official |
| 58 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Larry Don Suckla (R) | official | |
| 59 | Forecast | Katie Stewart (D), Naomi Riess (R) | 88% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Kathryn Kester Green (D), Matt Alexander (R) | <1% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Scott Shamblin (R), Eliza Hamrick (D), Kevin Gulbranson (Libertarian) | 97% | official |
| 62 | Forecast | Matthew Martinez (D), Steven Rodriguez (R), Donald Vermillion (Libertarian) | 95% | official |
| 63 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dusty Johnson (R) | official | |
| 64 | Forecast | Maureen (Mo) Dower (D), Scott L. Slaugh (R) | 1% | official |
| 65 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lori Garcia Sander (R) | official |