435 House districts · 35 Senate seats · 36 governorships · 59 statewide races with polling
Democrats are favoured to win the House (98%, about 244 Democratic seats); Republicans are favoured to keep the Senate (Democrats 39–46%, depending on independents); Republicans are expected to hold more governorships (about 25 Democratic governors of 50).
Try: How many House seats could flip? · Which Senate seats could flip? · What if the polls miss by 2 points toward Republicans? · What changed since yesterday? · What does a 70% chance mean?
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Democrats near-certain
98% chance of a Democratic majority
244 Democratic seats expected · 80% range 227–261 · 218 for a majority
Bars are 2 seats wide: the distribution spans 114 seat counts, which is too many to draw one apiece. The line is 218 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 98% of simulated elections land at or above 218. Out of 20,000 simulated elections.
Toss-up
39–46% chance of Democratic control
50 Democratic seats expected · 80% range 46–53 · 51 for a majority
Each bar is one seat. The line is 51 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections land at or above 51. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.
About even
25 Democratic governors expected, of 50
80% range 20–29 · of 50
Each bar is one seat. The line is 26 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections give the Democrats 26 or more of the 50 — which is not control of anything, because governors do not act as a body. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.
house_ground_up/2.0.0 · generated 2026-10-03 04:24 UTC · national environment D+7.3
The last election-day forecast of each day; hover a point for its date, numbers and model version. The House chart shows expected Democratic seats against the 218 needed: the drop on 1 October is the change from house_prior (259) to the ground-up model (243), marked 'new model'. The Senate band is the range across three seats whose winner's caucus is not recorded.
The polled statewide races nearest a coin flip. Probabilities are for the named candidate; margin is that candidate's expected lead in points. 59 statewide races carry both products; each race page has the full picture.
| Race | Candidate | Election day | Today | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX senate | James Talarico | 48% | 52% | -0.3 |
| AK governor | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 52% | 75% | +0.6 |
| OH governor | Amy Acton | 47% | 43% | -0.5 |
| GA governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms | 56% | 43% | +1.1 |
| MI senate | Abdul El-Sayed | 57% | 55% | +1.2 |
| IA senate | Josh Turek | 43% | 44% | -1.2 |
| OH senate | Sherrod Brown | 58% | 63% | +1.4 |
| WI governor | David Crowley | 61% | 64% | +2.0 |
| KS governor | Cindy Holscher | 38% | 30% | -3.5 |
| AK senate | Mary Peltola | 35% | 55% | -2.6 |
Schematic, not a projection: every state is one tile, because on a geographic map area reads as importance and it is not. Shading is the probability of a Democratic win (the number on each tile). Hatched: a race with no polled forecast yet (0); faded: no governor race this year (15).
Schematic, not a projection: every state is one tile, because on a geographic map area reads as importance and it is not. Shading is the probability of a Democratic win (the number on each tile). Hatched: a race with no polled forecast yet (0); faded: no senate race this year (16). Where an independent, not a Democrat, is the Republican's opponent (ID, MT, NE, SD), the shading and number are the independent's chance.