Florida House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
2%chance of a Democratic majority
98%chance of a Republican majority
61seats for a majority, of 120
120 of 120 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 40 seats after November (80% range 34–50) and Republicans 80 (70–86). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Michelle Salzman (R), Francesca Yabraian (D) | <1% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Jon Fay (R), Johnny Thompson (D) | 3% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Nathan Boyles (R), Ingrid Wadsworth (D) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | John Emerling (D), Patt Maney (R) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Shane Abbott (R), Alex Finney (D) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Tricia Berry (R), Stephanie Leonard (D) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason Shoaf (R) | official | |
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gallop Franklin (D) | official | |
| 9 | Forecast | Tracy Robinson (R), Allison Tant (D) | 99% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Merrillee Malwitz Jipson (D), Marshall Rawson (R) | <1% | official |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sam Garrison (R) | official | |
| 12 | Forecast | Terrance Freeman (R), Benjamin Sandlin (D) | 19% | official |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Audrey Gibson (D) | official | |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kimberly Daniels (D) | official | |
| 15 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Dean Black (R), Chadd Charland (independent) | official | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kiyan Michael (R) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Jessica Baker (R), Jacob Guerrero (D) | 6% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Kim Kendall (R), Art Stresing (D) | <1% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Sam Greco (R), Suzanna Pavelle (D) | 2% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Lee Butler (D), Judson Sapp (R) | <1% | official |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jacquelyn Randall (D) | official | |
| 22 | Forecast | Chad Johnson (R), Amy Trask (D) | 11% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Mark Baker (D), J.j. Grow (R) | <1% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ryan Chamberlin (R) | official | |
| 25 | Forecast | Farmer Helfrich (D), Taylor Yarkosky (R) | 3% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Nan Cobb (R), Robyn Lawrence (D) | 1% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Andy Ferrari (D), Richard Gentry (R) | <1% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Joseph Hannoush (Libertarian), Sammy Jackson (D), Bill Partington (R) | 5% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Webster Barnaby (R), Don Kanfer (D) | 8% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Edwin Munoz (D), Chase Tramont (R) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Daniel Cicirelli (D), Matt Woodside (R) | 2% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Juan Hinojosa (D), Brian Hodgers (R) | 1% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Daniel McDow (D), Monique Miller (R) | 13% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Jordyn Balderas (D), Robert Brackett (R) | <1% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Erika Booth (R), Eric Gray (D) | 38% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Darryl Block (D), Rachel Plakon (R) | 27% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Jane Aman (D), Robert Prater (R) | 70% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Nik Dean (D), Emily Duda Buckley (R) | 69% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Doug Bankson (R), Jarod Fox (D) | 34% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Tuan Le (R), Ra'Shon Young (D) | >99% | official |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bruce Antone (D) | official | |
| 42 | Forecast | Bonnie Jackson (R), Felipe Sousa Lazaballet (D) | 99% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Jorge Malavet (R), Samuel Vilchez Santiago (D) | 98% | official |
| 44 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rita Harris (D) | official | |
| 45 | Forecast | Erin Huntley (R), Leonard Spencer (D) | 89% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Jose Alvarez (D), Michael Cruz (R), Ivan Rivera (independent) | 99% | official |
| 47 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anthony Nieves (D) | official | |
| 48 | Forecast | Jonathan Albert (R), Alethea Pugh (D) | 7% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Robert Anzalone (D), Jennifer Jonsson (R) | <1% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Jennifer Canady (R), Ricky Santiago (D), Jarvis Washington (independent) | 1% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Octavio Hernandez (D), Hilary Holley (R) | 10% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Pamala Bivins (D), Samantha Scott (R) | <1% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Christopher Anger (CPF), Tony Claude (D), Brian Hawkins (R) | <1% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Randy Maggard (R) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | Zach Funkhouser (D), Walter Price (R) | 1% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Jose Freites (D), Brad Yeager (R) | <1% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Adam Anderson (R), Wendy Hoy (D) | 3% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Bryan Beckman (D), Kimberly Berfield (R) | 7% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Berny Jacques (R), Susan Leff (D) | 5% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Lindsay Polega-Quigley (D), Melissa Rutland (R) | 91% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Linda Chaney (R), May Thach (D) | 12% | official |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kyandra Darling (D) | official | |
| 63 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jacqueline Coffie-Leeks (D) | official | |
| 64 | Forecast | Luis Salazar (D), Dan Weldon (R) | 86% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Ben Braver (D), Karen Gonzalez Pittman (R) | 8% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Traci Koster (R), Jose Sanchez Sanchez (D) | 6% | official |
| 67 | Forecast | Lisette Bonano (R), Luis Viera (D) | 94% | official |
| 68 | Forecast | Ryan Gill (R), Tony Smith (D) | 1% | official |
| 69 | Forecast | Daniel Alvarez (R), Ashley Herrmann (D) | 6% | official |
| 70 | Forecast | Michael Owen (R), Luther Wilkins (D) | 5% | official |
| 71 | Forecast | Ocean Fitts (D), Joseph Hoolihan (independent), Jordan Varnadore (R) | 8% | official |
| 72 | Forecast | William Conerly (R), Harvey Shifrin (D) | 1% | official |
| 73 | Forecast | Lisa Klein (D), Fiona McFarland (R) | 12% | official |
| 74 | Forecast | Ryan Neill (D), Nick Pachota (R) | 1% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Cynthia Butler (D), Danny Nix Jr. (R) | <1% | official |
| 76 | Forecast | Phillip Carter (D), Vanessa Oliver (R) | <1% | official |
| 77 | Forecast | Tiffany Esposito (R), Cornelius Fowler (D) | 1% | official |
| 78 | Forecast | Cindy Banyai (D), Susan Frantz (R) | 7% | official |
| 79 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Giallombardo (R) | official | |
| 80 | Forecast | Adam Botana (R), William Moskal (D) | <1% | official |
| 81 | Forecast | Yvette Benarroch (R), Kim Finer (D) | <1% | official |
| 82 | Forecast | Arthur Boyer (D), Liesa Priddy (R) | <1% | official |
| 83 | Forecast | Leigh Estes (D), Kaylee Tuck (R) | <1% | official |
| 84 | Forecast | Jennifer Massey (D), Dana Trabulsy (R) | 6% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Anthony Bonna (R), Amr Metwally (MGT), Wayne Richter (D) | 18% | official |
| 86 | Forecast | Elizabeth Pandich (D), John Snyder (R) | <1% | official |
| 87 | Forecast | Emily Gregory (D), Jon Maples (R) | 17% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Jervonte Edmonds (D), William Joseph (R) | >99% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | Cathy Higgins (R), Debra Tendrich (D) | 90% | official |
| 90 | Forecast | Rob Long (D), Ionel Roiban (R) | 99% | official |
| 91 | Forecast | Luis Garcia (D), Peggy Gossett-Seidman (R) | 20% | official |
| 92 | Forecast | Steve Byers (R), Kelly Skidmore (D) | 99% | official |
| 93 | Forecast | Anne Gerwig (R), August Mangeney (D) | 54% | official |
| 94 | Forecast | Doug Barrow (independent), Elizabeth Holmes (D), Megan Weinberger (R) | 17% | official |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christine Hunschofsky (D) | official | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Dan Daley (D) | official | |
| 97 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa Dunkley (D) | official | |
| 98 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mitch Rosenwald (D) | official | |
| 99 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daryl Campbell (D) | official | |
| 100 | Forecast | Yoni Anijar (R), Michael Ferguson (D) | 17% | official |
| 101 | Forecast | Hillary Cassel (R), Todd Delmay (D) | 83% | official |
| 102 | Forecast | Michael Friend (D), Mery Lopez-Palma (R) | 91% | official |
| 103 | Forecast | Robin Bartleman (D), Imtiaz Mohammad (R) | 97% | official |
| 104 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Felicia Robinson (D) | official | |
| 105 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marie Woodson (D) | official | |
| 106 | Forecast | Lucia Baez-Geller (D), Fabian Basabe (R) | 37% | official |
| 107 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Wallace Aristide (D) | official | |
| 108 | Forecast | Daphne Campbell (D), Wancito Francius (R) | 96% | official |
| 109 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James Bush III (D) | official | |
| 110 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tom Fabricio (R) | official | |
| 111 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Borrero (R) | official | |
| 112 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alex Rizo (R) | official | |
| 113 | Forecast | Bruno Barreiro (R), Gloria Romero Roses (D) | 35% | official |
| 114 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Demi Busatta (R) | official | |
| 115 | Forecast | Omar Blanco (R), Marcos Reyes (D) | 4% | official |
| 116 | Forecast | Ashley Perez-Biliskov (R), Nicolas Ramos (D) | <1% | official |
| 117 | Forecast | Kevin Chambliss (D), Miguel Granda (R) | 95% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Armando Castillo (D), Mike Redondo (R) | <1% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Juan Porras (R), Rey Sordo (D) | 1% | official |
| 120 | Decided: only a Republican is running | James Mooney Jr. (R) | official |