Alabama House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
53seats for a majority, of 105
105 of 105 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 29 seats after November (80% range 27–31) and Republicans 76 (74–78). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Maurice McCaney (R), Rep. Phillip Pettus (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | Ben Harrison (R), Rick Pressnell (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kerry Bubba Underwood (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 4 | Forecast | Parker Duncan Moore (R), Hanu Karlapalem (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Forecast | Danny F. Crawford (R), Jessie Barcala (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Andy Whitt (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Ernie Yarbrough (R), Trent Ford (independent), Angelo "Doc" Mancuso (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Forecast | Patrick Johnson (R), Janine Maria Jordan (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Scott Stadthagen (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Forecast | Aaron Thomas (R), Marilyn Lands (D) | 59% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Heath Allbright (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cindy Myrex (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Mike Elliott (R), Rep. Gregory Barnes (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 14 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tim R. Wadsworth (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Forecast | Leigh Hulsey (R), Nell Brown (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Bryan Brinyark (R), Christian Martin (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Phil Segraves (R), Rep. Tracy Estes (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jamie Kiel (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Forecast | Donald Barnes (R), Laura Hall (D) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 20 | Forecast | James Lomax (R), James Linderholm (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Forecast | Rex Reynolds (R), Forrest Satterfield (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ritchie Whorton (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Kirkland (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Nathaniel Ledbetter (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Forecast | Phillip K. Rigsby (R), Allison T Montgomery (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brock Colvin (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeana Ross (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Forecast | Mack N Butler (R), Robert Louis Hunter (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark A. Gidley (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Craig Lipscomb (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Troy B. Stubbs (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Forecast | Joey Callahan (R), Debra D Foster (D) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ben Robbins (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Standridge (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 35 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Steve Hurst (R), Joseph Cleveland (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 36 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Randy Wood (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Forecast | Jeff Monroe (R), Michelle French (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Kristin Nelson (R), Hazel Floyd (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ginny Shaver (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 40 | Forecast | Chad Robertson (R), Pam Howard (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Corley Ellis (R), David J.a. Morgan (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Van Smith (R), Rep. Ivan Smith (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 43 | Forecast | Arnold Mooney (R), Taylor Cook (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Danny Garrett (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 45 | Forecast | Susan DuBose (R), Toni Kornegay Vaughn (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David L. Faulkner (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 47 | Forecast | Mike Shaw (R), Jim Toomey (D) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Lloyd Peeples (R), Rep. Jim Carns (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 49 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Russell Bedsole (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 50 | Forecast | Bill Morris (R), Alan Thomas (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Allen Treadaway (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 52 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | GiGi Hayes (D), Rep. Kelvin Datcher (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 53 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anthony Daniels (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Neil Rafferty (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Travis Hendrix (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 56 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Ontario J Tillman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patrick Sellers (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rolanda Hollis (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 59 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Moore (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 60 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Alicia Escott Lumpkin (D), Rep. Juandalynn Givan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ron Bolton (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bill Lamb (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 63 | Forecast | Norman Crow (R), Judith Taylor (D) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Donna Givens (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 65 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | John Knapp (R), Elaine Beech (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 66 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alan Baker (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 67 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Prince Chestnut (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 68 | Forecast | Fred Kelley (R), Thomas E "Action" Jackson (D) | 79% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 69 | Forecast | Josh Pendergrass (R), Kelvin J Lawrence (D) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 70 | Forecast | Ian M. Chwatuk (R), Christopher John England (D) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Artis "A.j." McCampbell (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Curtis L Travis (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kenneth Paschal (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 74 | Forecast | Alva Lambert (R), Jasmyne Crimiel (D) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Forecast | Reed Ingram (R), Tisha Dickson Nickson (D) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Patrice "Penni" McClammy (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | TaShina Morris (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 78 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenyatté Hassell (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 79 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joe Lovvorn (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 80 | Forecast | Chris Blackshear (R), Manfred Malone (D) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ed Oliver (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 82 | Forecast | Kinsley Hammons (R), Pebblin W. Warren (D) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 83 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeremy A. Gray (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 84 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Berry Forte (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 85 | Forecast | Rick Rehm (R), Aristotle Onassis Kirkland (D) | 19% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Paul Lee (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeff Sorrells (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 88 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jerry Starnes (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Marcus B. Paramore (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chris Sells (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 91 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Jody Linton (R), Rep. Rhett Marques (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 92 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Matthew Hammett (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 93 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steve Clouse (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 94 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jennifer Fidler (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Frances Holk-Jones (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Forecast | Danielle Duggar (R), Terri Osborne (D) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 97 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adline C. Clarke (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 98 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Napoleon Bracy Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 99 | Forecast | Charlie Watts (R), Sam Jones (D) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 100 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark Shirey (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 101 | Forecast | Chris Pringle (R), Joan Friedlander (D) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 102 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shane Stringer (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 103 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Barbara Drummond (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 104 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Margie Wilcox (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 105 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chip Brown (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |