CA-3 · House

The district, in brief

California's 3rd is on a map first used in 2026. The text does not describe the new lines directly; it records that Kevin Kiley, listed as the incumbent from the previous 3rd, is running in the 6th district, and that a poll of the old matchup was taken before the passage of Proposition 50. The presidential baseline in the facts (a 2024 two-party Democratic margin of -3.9) is on the old lines, not the current ones.

The incumbent is Democrat Ami Bera, re-elected with 57.6% of the vote in 2024. The Republican is Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor since 2025. In the primary Bera took 34.26% (76,653 votes) and Tucker 29.86% (66,808 votes) of 223,711 cast; Democrat Heidi Hall, also a Nevada County supervisor, finished third with 12.81% and Republican Christine Bish fourth with 11.90%. Former state senator Richard Pan withdrew to run in the 6th district. As of June 30, 2026 Bera had raised $1,250,126 with $1,830,338 on hand; Tucker had raised $258,139 with $16,000 on hand. The California Democratic Party is listed as a post-primary endorsement.

Every rater listed calls the seat D: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), Inside Elections (November 6, 2025), the Cook Political Report (November 5, 2025), Sabato's Crystal Ball (March 2, 2026) and The Economist (May 6, 2026). The one poll in the text is Tulchin Research (D), sponsored by Hall's campaign and taken July 8–10, 2025 before Proposition 50 passed, with 400 likely voters: Kiley 47%, Hall 45%, 8% undecided. Neither of those candidates is in the general election.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The text does not describe the new district lines or what Proposition 50 changed.; The primary-stage endorsement blocks are not attached to named candidates in the text (only co-endorsement notes mention Bera, Bennett and Hall), so they are not reported.; The only poll tests Kiley against Hall, not the Bera–Tucker general election; the model's basis says no district polls.; No general-election ratings finer than 'D' are given.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 5cec783f78c8; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

Who holds the seat now

Kevin Kiley (Independent), in this chamber since 2023, 2 terms. Committees: House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure; House Committee on the Judiciary; House Committee on Education and Workforce.

From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 1.6 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

Who are the voters?

Of about 535,899 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 57.3% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 57.6% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.6 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.

Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.

The money

FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $1,138 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.

The district in numbers

ACS 5-year 2023, assembled from census tracts by the 2020 population of their blocks inside the current lines, because the Bureau has not tabulated these lines; medians are population-weighted means of tract medians. Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.

Who is favoured, and by how much?

The 90% interval runs from +10.2 to +40.1 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.

What is this built on?

A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.

Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.

Why does the model say this?

Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 presidential lean (D+12.0): 10.8 pts toward the Democrat; PAC money balance: 8.7 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 House lean: 8.2 pts toward the Democrat; experience gap (+3 levels, D minus R): 3.1 pts toward the Democrat; foreign born share (17.1%): 1.0 pts toward the Republican.

How sure is it, and of what?

Total sd 9.11 points, made of the seat's own volatility 92%, correlated polling error 8%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.

How was this number made?

Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).