Rhode Island House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
38seats for a majority, of 75
75 of 75 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 65 seats after November (80% range 64–67) and Republicans 10 (8–11). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Edith H. Ajello (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christopher R. Blazejewski (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nathan W. Biah (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rebecca M. Kislak (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Anthony J. DeSimone (D), Brittany M. Kubicek (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Raymond A. Hull (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Forecast | Amy J. Santiago (D), Christopher L. Ireland (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John Joseph Lombardi (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Enrique George Sanchez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Scott A. Slater (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 11 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Grace Diaz (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Arlette Hidalgo (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Ramón Pérez (D), Derick A. Reels (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Charlene M. Lima (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 15 | Forecast | Colleen M. Crudele (D), Allan W. Fung (independent), Christopher G. Paplauskas (R) | 48% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brandon Potter (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 17 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jacquelyn Baginski (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Forecast | Arthur Handy (D), Jessica Gomes (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Joseph McNamara (D), Patrick E. Maloney Jr. (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David A. Bennett (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Marie A. Hopkins (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Forecast | Zakary J. Pereira (D), Barbara Quigley (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | William Muto (D), Dana James Traversie (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Evan Patrick Shanley (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Thomas E. Noret (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Earl A. Read III (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Forecast | Angela S. Coburn (D), Lawrence P. Almagno Jr. (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 28 | Decided: only a Republican is running | George A. Nardone (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sherry L. Roberts (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Justine Caldwell (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James C. Sheehan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert E. Craven Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 33 | Forecast | Carol Hagan McEntee (D), Jessica Drew Day (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 34 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Teresa A. Tanzi (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 35 | Forecast | Kathleen A. Fogarty (D), Jennifer P. Nerbonne (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tina L. Spears (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 37 | Forecast | Samuel Angelo Azzinaro (D), Christopher M. Stanton (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brian Patrick Kennedy (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Forecast | Megan L. Cotter (D), Jasmin Roy (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Michael Chippendale (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 41 | Forecast | Shaina N. Smith (D), Michael J. Riley (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Forecast | Edward W. Stravato (D), Richard R. Fascia (R) | 16% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 43 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Deborah A. Fellela (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 44 | Forecast | Gregory Costantino (D), Joseph Hosey (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mia A. Ackerman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Ann Shallcross Smith (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 47 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David J. Place (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 48 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brian C. Newberry (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 49 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Veronicka Vega (D), Jon D. Brien (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Stephen Casey (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Robert D. Phillips (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alex D. Marszalkowski (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 53 | Forecast | Suzanna L. Alba (D), Paul M. Santucci (R) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | William W. O'Brien (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Arthur J. Corvese (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 56 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joshua J. Giraldo (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brandon T. Voas (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 58 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Cherie L. Cruz (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 59 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Jennifer A. Stewart (D), Jean P. Barros (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 60 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Karen Alzate (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 61 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Leonela Felix (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mary Duffy Messier (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 63 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Katherine Sheena Kazarian (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 64 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jenni A. Furtado (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 65 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Matthew Dawson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 66 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jennifer Smith Boylan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 67 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Nicole P. Jellinek (D), Joseph A. DePasquale (independent) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 68 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | June S. Speakman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 69 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Susan Ann Donovan (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John G. Edwards (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michelle E. McGaw (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Terri-Denise Cortvriend (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marvin Abney (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 74 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Alex Finkelman (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 75 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lauren H. Carson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |