2026 governor forecasts

Republicans are expected to hold more governorships (about 25 Democratic governors of 50).

Governors

About even

25 Democratic governors expected, of 50

80% range 20–29 · of 50

Each bar is one seat. The line is 26 seats and the shading either side of it is what the control probability is the area of: 39% of simulated elections give the Democrats 26 or more of the 50 — which is not control of anything, because governors do not act as a body. Out of 50,000 simulated elections.

If the election were today: 22 Democratic governors · nowcast run 55e915b5

Election day · run fed80ddb · governor_chamber/0.4.0 · as of 2026-10-02

Governor · election day

MN90 IL95 WI62 MI85 NY96 RI100 MA100 OR69 NV29 WY0 SD2 IA71

AZ84 NM77 KS39 AR8 TN3

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe RRace, no polled forecastNo race this year What the ratings mean

Schematic, not a projection: every state is one tile, because on a geographic map area reads as importance and it is not. Shading is the probability of a Democratic win (the number on each tile). Hatched: a race with no polled forecast yet (0); faded: no governor race this year (15).

Every race

Sorted from most to least Democratic. The chance and rating are the election-day forecast; the margin is the favourite's expected lead in points. Each state links to its full race page.

State	Candidates	Rating	Chance of beating the Republican Democrat, or independent where noted	Expected margin	Polls
Massachusetts	Healey (D) vs Minogue (R)	Safe D	100%	Healey +23	9
Rhode Island	Foulkes (D) vs Block (I)	Safe D	100%	Foulkes +20	6
California	Becerra (D) vs Hilton (R)	Safe D	100%	Becerra +22	64
Pennsylvania	Shapiro (D) vs Garrity (R)	Safe D	100%	Shapiro +18	15
Maryland	Moore (D) vs Cox (R)	Safe D	99%	Moore +29	1
Hawaii	Green (D) vs Cordery (R)	Safe D	99%	Green +33	none: fundamentals only
Connecticut	Lamont (D) vs Fazio (R)	Safe D	99%	Lamont +16	7
New York	Hochul (D) vs Blakeman (R)	Safe D	96%	Hochul +13	23
Illinois	Pritzker (D) vs Bailey (R)	Safe D	95%	Pritzker +19	1
Colorado	Weiser (D) vs Marx (R)	Safe D	95%	Weiser +22	none: fundamentals only
Maine	Pingree (D) vs Charles (R)	Likely D	92%	Pingree +10	7
Minnesota	Klobuchar (D) vs Demuth (R)	Likely D	90%	Klobuchar +9	7
Michigan	Benson (D) vs James (R)	Likely D	85%	Benson +7	30
Arizona	Hobbs (D) vs Biggs (R)	Lean D	84%	Hobbs +7	20
New Mexico	Haaland (D) vs Hull (R)	Lean D	77%	Haaland +8	3
Iowa	Sand (D) vs Lahn (R)	Lean D	71%	Sand +4	11
Oregon	Kotek (D) vs Drazan (R)	Lean D	69%	Kotek +4	4
Wisconsin	Crowley (D) vs Tiffany (R)	Lean D	62%	Crowley +2	5
Georgia	Bottoms (D) vs Jackson (R)	Toss-up	56%	Bottoms +1	10
Alaska	Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Wilson (R)	Toss-up	54%	Kreiss-Tomkins +1	12
Ohio	Ramaswamy (R) vs Acton (D)	Toss-up	46%	Ramaswamy +1	20
Kansas	Masterson (R) vs Holscher (D)	Lean R	39%	Masterson +3	3
Nevada	Lombardo (R) vs Ford (D)	Lean R	29%	Lombardo +4	12
Florida	Donalds (R) vs Jolly (D)	Lean R	26%	Donalds +4	19
Oklahoma	Mazzei (R) vs Munson (D)	Lean R	20%	Mazzei +11	none: fundamentals only
Texas	Abbott (R) vs Hinojosa (D)	Lean R	19%	Abbott +6	33
South Carolina	Wilson (R) vs Johnson (D)	Lean R	18%	Wilson +10	2
New Hampshire	Ayotte (R) vs Warmington (D)	Likely R	8%	Ayotte +10	8
Arkansas	Sanders (R) vs Love (D)	Likely R	8%	Sanders +16	1
Vermont	Scott (R) vs Janoo (D)	Likely R	7%	Scott +17	3
Nebraska	Pillen (R) vs Walz (D)	Likely R	6%	Pillen +12	6
Alabama	Tuberville (R) vs Jones (D)	Safe R	4%	Tuberville +20	2
Tennessee	Blackburn (R) vs Green (D)	Safe R	3%	Blackburn +22	3
South Dakota	Rhoden (R) vs Ahlers (D)	Safe R	2%	Rhoden +28	none: fundamentals only
Idaho	Little (R) vs Pickens (D)	Safe R	1%	Little +27	2
Wyoming	Barlow (R) vs Casner (D)	Safe R	0%	Barlow +39	none: fundamentals only