Arkansas House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 20 seats after November (80% range 18–24) and Republicans 80 (76–82). In 6 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mark A. Nichols (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Trey Steimel (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 3 | Forecast | Carrie Huddleston (D), Stetson Painter (R) | 3% | news guide |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason Nazarenko (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Bishop (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cody Rogers (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 7 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brit McKenzie (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Forecast | Kara Armas (R), Parker Stohlton (D) | 7% | news guide |
| 9 | Forecast | Matt Goff (R), Diana Gonzales Worthen (D) | 97% | news guide |
| 10 | Forecast | Jacob Allen (D), Mindy McAlindon (R) | 9% | news guide |
| 11 | Forecast | Rebecca Burkes (R), Rey Hernandez (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Hope Hendren Duke (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Scott Richardson (R), Mitchell Smith (D) | 4% | news guide |
| 14 | Forecast | Nick Burkes (R), Timothy Heron Jr. (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 15 | Forecast | John Carr (R), Daniel Holtmeyer (D) | 8% | news guide |
| 16 | Forecast | Letisha Hinds (D), Kendon Underwood (R) | 6% | news guide |
| 17 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Randy Torres (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Robin Lundstrum (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 19 | Forecast | Jamie Atkinson (D), Steve Unger (R) | 11% | news guide |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Max Deitchler (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nicole Clowney (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Whitaker (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 23 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Laura Marsh (independent), Kendra Moore (R) | news guide | |
| 24 | Forecast | Charlene Fite (R), Ryan Intchauspe (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 25 | Forecast | Courtney King (D), Chad Puryear (R) | <1% | news guide |
| 26 | Decided: only a Republican is running | James Eaton (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steven Walker (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bart Schulz (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 29 | Forecast | Rick McClure (R), Deonna Morgan (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Josh Longmire (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 31 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jimmy Gazaway (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 32 | Forecast | Erika Askeland (D), Jack Ladyman (R) | 2% | news guide |
| 33 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jon Milligan (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | Forecast | Joey Carr (R), Michael Middlebrook (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 35 | Forecast | Robert Thorne (R), Audrey Willis (D) | 72% | news guide |
| 36 | Forecast | Shamal Carter (D), Johnny Rye (R) | <1% | news guide |
| 37 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Steve Hollowell (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dwight Tosh (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wayne Long (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Shad Pearce (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 41 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alyssa Brown (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 42 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeremy Riddle (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 43 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Rick Beck (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 44 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bill Teeter (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 45 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Debra Hobbs (independent), Aaron Pilkington (R) | news guide | |
| 46 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tonya Fletcher (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 47 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lee Johnson (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 48 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Hunter Jackson (Libertarian), Ryan Rose (R) | news guide | |
| 49 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jay Richardson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 50 | Forecast | Zack Gramlich (R), Wendy Peer (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 51 | Forecast | Cindy Crawford (R), Jane-Ellen Udouj-Kutchka (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brent Montgomery (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 53 | Forecast | Matt Duffield (R), Jennifer Lewter (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 54 | Forecast | Mary Bentley (R), Doug Corbitt (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 55 | Forecast | Matt Brown (R), Cynthia Nations (D) | 4% | news guide |
| 56 | Forecast | Mark Brannan (R), Steve Magie (D) | 95% | news guide |
| 57 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cameron Cooper (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 58 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Les Eaves (R), Jocelyn Fry (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 59 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Wooten (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 60 | Forecast | Beverly Coleman-Keown (D), Roger Lynch (R) | 4% | news guide |
| 61 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Jeremiah Moore (R), Garrett Sheeks (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 62 | Forecast | Mark McElroy (R), Dexter Miller (D) | 22% | news guide |
| 63 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lincoln Barnett (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 64 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenneth B. Ferguson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 65 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Glenn Barnes (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 66 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark W. Perry (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 67 | Forecast | Karilyn Brown (R), Andrew Eberly (D) | 31% | news guide |
| 68 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Brian S. Evans (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 69 | Forecast | Dean Hunter (D), David Ray (R) | <1% | news guide |
| 70 | Forecast | Alex Holladay (D), Bo Renshaw (R) | 76% | news guide |
| 71 | Forecast | Stephen Bright (R), Cassandra Mayes (D) | 23% | news guide |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Talesha Dokes (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrew Collins (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 74 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tippi McCullough (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 75 | Forecast | Ashley Hudson (D), Hunter Sadler (R) | 99% | news guide |
| 76 | Forecast | Isbac Ceja (R), Joy Springer (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 77 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steven Person (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 78 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Keith Brooks (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 79 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael D. Mason (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 80 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Denise Ennett (D), Daniel Stuckey (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 81 | Forecast | Rj Hawk (R), Gina Thomas-Littlejohn (D) | 2% | news guide |
| 82 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tony Furman (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 83 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Paul Childress (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 84 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Les Warren (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 85 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Richard McGrew (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 86 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Maddox (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 87 | Decided: only a Republican is running | DeAnn Vaught (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 88 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dolly Henley (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 89 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Justin Gonzales (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Richard Womack (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 91 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bruce Cozart (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 92 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Dawn Creekmore (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 93 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Mike Holcomb (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 94 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Kyle Day (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Howard M. Beaty Jr. (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Sonia E. Barker (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 97 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jim Andrews (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 98 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Wade Andrews (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 99 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Beth Anne Rankin Baker (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 100 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Carol Dalby (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |