Wyoming House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
62 of 62 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 7 seats after November (80% range 5–9) and Republicans 55 (53–57). In 5 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Troy Claycomb (R) | official | |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jd Williams (R) | official | |
| 3 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Earl Collier (R) | official | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeremy Haroldson (R) | official | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joe Speckner (R) | official | |
| 6 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Tomi Strock (R) | official | |
| 7 | Forecast | Bob Nicholas (R), Gavin Lobmeyer (D) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | K. Reiner (R), Brenda Lyttle (D) | 7% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Boyd Wiggam (R), Stephen Latham (D) | 10% | official |
| 10 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Justin Fornstrom (R), Tony Perry (CT) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Dan McIntosh (R), Britney Tennant (D), Ryan Shollenberger (Libertarian) | 16% | official |
| 12 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Clarence Styvar (R) | official | |
| 13 | Forecast | Shane Swett (R), Kenneth Chestek (D) | 85% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Emily Study (R), Trey Sherwood (D) | 81% | official |
| 15 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Pamela Thayer (R), Cheryl Hulme (CT) | official | |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael Yin (D) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Elizabeth Bingham (R), Rah Reinholz (D) | 5% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kenneth Roberts (R) | official | |
| 19 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chad Stephens (R) | official | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Albert Sommers (R) | official | |
| 21 | Decided: only a Republican is running | McKay Erickson (R) | official | |
| 22 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Andrew Byron (R) | official | |
| 23 | Forecast | Shannon Brennan (R), Elizabeth Storer (D) | 99% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Quintin Blair (R) | official | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Wetzel (R) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Dalton Banks (R), Ralph Nieder-Westermann (D) | 2% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Martha Lawley (R), Theresa Livingston (D) | 2% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Allen Hogg (R), Larry Alwin (D) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Myca Sturtevant (R) | official | |
| 30 | Decided: only a Republican is running | John Koltiska (R) | official | |
| 31 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Douglas Moore (R), David Hardesty (independent) | official | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kenneth Clouston (R) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Justin Morgan (R), Ivan Posey (D) | 97% | official |
| 34 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Pepper Ottman (R) | official | |
| 35 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Christopher Dresang (R) | official | |
| 36 | Forecast | Arthur Washut (R), John McAdoo (D) | 5% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Brian Costello (R), Elizabeth Erickson (D) | 5% | official |
| 38 | Forecast | Robert Hendry (R), Catherine McQueen (D) | 4% | official |
| 39 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cody Wylie (R) | official | |
| 40 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Marilyn Connolly (R) | official | |
| 41 | Forecast | Erin Edwards (R), Stacy Becker (D) | 29% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Robert Geringer (R), Jim Vandyke (D) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jessica Crowder (R) | official | |
| 44 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lee Filer (R) | official | |
| 45 | Forecast | Ross Davenport (R), Karlee Provenza (D) | >99% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Cameron Wright (R), Gary Wilken (D) | <1% | official |
| 47 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Patrick O'Toole (R) | official | |
| 48 | Forecast | James Wamsley (R), Susan Schmid (D) | 4% | official |
| 49 | Decided: only a Republican is running | David Walton (R) | official | |
| 50 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | David Hill (R), Carrie Satterwhite (Libertarian) | official | |
| 51 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Laurie Schierloh-Bratten (R) | official | |
| 52 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Ronda Boller (R) | official | |
| 53 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Christopher Knapp (R) | official | |
| 54 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Lloyd Larsen (R), Holly Butler (Libertarian) | official | |
| 55 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Carl Manning (R) | official | |
| 56 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Elissa Campbell (R) | official | |
| 57 | Forecast | Julie Jarvis (R), Lucas Colgrove (D) | 5% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Bill Allemand (R), Keenan Morgan (D), Joseph Porambo (Libertarian) | 3% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Justin Riggins (R), Laurie Longtine (D) | 4% | official |
| 60 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Anthony Niemiec (R) | official | |
| 61 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Andrew Server (R) | official | |
| 62 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Kevin Campbell (R) | official |