The FutureBallot briefing

What arrives, when, and this week's edition built from today's forecast

What you get

A weekly summary, Sunday mornings (Pacific): who is favored for the House, the Senate and the governorships, and the week's race changes.
An alert, “The FutureBallot forecast moved”, when the chance of control of the House or Senate, or of a majority of governorships, moves 5 percentage points or more since our last email; at most one a day. It names the races that moved most.
Nothing else, and nothing after Election Day (November 3, 2026). Plain text, with no tracking pixel and no ads. Every email carries your personal link to unsubscribe or delete your address in one click.

This week's briefing

Built from the forecast as of Oct 9, 2026, 9:25 p.m. PDT by the same code that sends the Sunday email, so this is what it would say if it went out now.

Subject: FutureBallot weekly briefing, October 10, 2026
From: FutureBallot <briefing@futureballot.com>

FutureBallot weekly briefing, October 10, 2026
Forecast as of October 9, 2026, 9:25 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (04:25 UTC). Election Day is November 3, 2026, 24 days away.
These are election-day forecasts: modeled chances of the November result, not vote shares.

WHO IS FAVORED
House: Democrats strongly favored. 94% modeled chance of a Democratic majority; about 237 Democratic seats expected, with an 80% range of 221–254. 218 seats are needed for a majority. A week ago: 98% and about 244 seats.
Senate: Toss-up. 41–50% modeled chance of Democratic control; about 50 Democratic seats expected, with an 80% range of 46–53. 51 seats are needed for a majority. A week ago: 39–47% and about 50 seats.
Governors: about 26 Democratic governors expected of 50, with an 80% range of 22–30. The modeled chance that Democrats hold more than 25 is 56%. Since a week ago the seats not on the ballot this year were recounted (a missing or late election result), so the change is a correction, not news.
The Senate chance is a range because some seats could be won by independent candidates with no firm caucus commitment on record; the low and high figures assume different caucus choices. The Senate page gives the sources: https://futureballot.com/senate

THIS WEEK'S RACE CHANGES
Compared with a week earlier, a race is listed when the Democrat's chance of winning moved by 4 percentage points or more, or its rating changed.
Changes on new information, largest first:
- Kansas Governor: Lean R; the Democrat's chance of winning went from 39% to 27%. https://futureballot.com/races/600923e2-3812-462b-a47a-a8af92f5914a
- Ohio Governor: Toss-up; the Democrat's chance of winning went from 46% to 57%. https://futureballot.com/races/2633c037-34c0-47da-9d8b-35ca17fb4c6c
- New Mexico Governor: Lean D to Likely D; the Democrat's chance of winning went from 77% to 86%. https://futureballot.com/races/1e3bedbf-a857-4165-9bdd-a00d4791827f
- Kansas Senate: Lean R; the Democrat's chance of winning went from 24% to 34%. https://futureballot.com/races/276eb156-5c37-476a-8fa1-29e109be16c8
- Oklahoma Governor: Lean R to Likely R; the Democrat's chance of winning went from 20% to 11%. https://futureballot.com/races/7f6b293a-f6ed-45dc-8932-46175982e407
Separately, 104 race forecasts met it because the model was updated, not because anything happened in those races; they are not campaign news.

Read the full forecast: https://futureballot.com/
Day-to-day changes: https://futureballot.com/changes
Senate: https://futureballot.com/senate Governors: https://futureballot.com/governors House districts: https://futureballot.com/districts

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A short email when the forecast moves, and a weekly summary through Election Day. No ads. Your address is not sold, not used for advertising, and shared only with the services that deliver the site and the email.

An alert goes out when the chance of control of the House or Senate, or of a majority of governorships, moves 5 percentage points or more since the last email, at most once a day; the summary arrives Sunday mornings. See this week's briefing.