Pennsylvania Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
25 of 50 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 22 seats after November (80% range 21–24) and Republicans 28 (26–29). Neither party wins a majority in 6% of the simulations: the parties can tie at 25 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 2 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christine M Tartaglione (D) | official | |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Forecast | Art Haywood (D), Todd Johnson (R) | >99% | official |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Eileen Hartnett Albillar (D), Frank Farry (R) | 17% | official |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Anthony Hardy Williams (D) | official | |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Greg Bankos (R), Steve Santarsiero (D) | 99% | official |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | Forecast | Maria Collett (D), Robert F Costello III (R) | 99% | official |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Nick Miller (D), Omy Maldonado (R) | 94% | official |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Forecast | Jarrett Coleman (R), Mark Pinsley (D) | 17% | official |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Lisa Boscola (D), Scott Janney (R) | 99% | official |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Jackie Baker (D), Lisa Baker (R) | <1% | official |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 22 | Forecast | Marty Flynn (D), Sharon Soltis Sparano (R) | 99% | official |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | Forecast | Chris Thomas (D), Mike Schonewolf (GRN), Tracy E Pennycuick (R) | 30% | official |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Forecast | Gail Scott (R), Tim Kearney (D) | 99% | official |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Kristin Phillips-Hill (R), Thomas Johnson (D) | <1% | official |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 30 | Forecast | Judy Ward (R), Sean Steeg (D) | <1% | official |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 32 | Forecast | Jacob Cecil (D), Pat Stefano (R) | <1% | official |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Greg Rothman (R), Nathan Wood (D) | 1% | official |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 36 | Forecast | James Andrew Malone (D), Tom Jones (R) | 9% | official |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 38 | Forecast | Lindsey Williams (D), Thomas West (R) | 97% | official |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 40 | Forecast | Brian Wrightson (D), Rosemary Brown (R) | 12% | official |
| 41 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Wayne D Fontana (D) | official | |
| 43 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 44 | Forecast | Katie Muth (D), Melissa Dicranian (R) | 97% | official |
| 45 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 46 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Camera Bartolotta (R), Jodi Borello (independent) | official | |
| 47 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 48 | Forecast | Chris Gebhard (R), Wayne Moyer (D) | <1% | official |
| 49 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 50 | Forecast | Michele Brooks (R), Sue Mulvey (D) | <1% | official |