Alaska House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
40 of 40 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 15 seats after November (80% range 13–17) and Republicans 18 (15–20). Neither party wins a majority in 96% of the simulations: about 7 seats are expected to go to independents or other parties and the parties can tie at 20 seats each. Who then runs the chamber depends on the state: a coalition, a power-sharing agreement, or, in some Senates, the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote. In Alaska a party's majority of seats has not always meant control: both chambers have been run by bipartisan coalitions in recent sessions.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Jeremy T. Bynum (R, 76%), Grant EchoHawk (nonpartisan, 24%) | <1% | official |
| 2 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Alston C. Evans (undeclared, <1%), Rebecca Himschoot (nonpartisan, 99%), Kenny “Kenny Karl” Skaflestad (R, 1%) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Annette Kreitzer (R), Andrea “Andi” Story (D) | 99% | official |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sara Hannan (D) | official | |
| 5 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Sheldon R.j. Prout (R, 8%), Kathy C. Simpler (nonpartisan, 92%) | <1% | official |
| 6 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Brent Johnson (nonpartisan, 81%), Sarah L. Vance (R, 19%) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Justin M. Ruffridge (R), Kate Veh (D) | 3% | official |
| 8 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | William H. “Bill” Elam (R, >99%), Frank Quinn (nonpartisan, <1%), Nissa Savage (nonpartisan, <1%) | <1% | official |
| 9 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | John C. Boyle (R, 11%), Ky Holland (nonpartisan, 89%) | <1% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Charles M. “Chuck” Kopp (R) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Julie Coulombe (R), Danni M. Hall (D) | 8% | official |
| 12 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Jieun C. “Jini” McDonald (R, 1%), Calvin R. Schrage (nonpartisan, 99%) | <1% | official |
| 13 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lisa M. Keller (D) | official | |
| 14 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Alyse S. Galvin (nonpartisan, >99%), Russell O. Wyatt (undeclared, <1%) | <1% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Mia Costello (R), Denny Wells (D) | 40% | official |
| 16 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Carolyn Hall (D, 96%), Phil Isley (undeclared, <1%), Liz Vazquez (R, 4%) | 96% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Daniel L. Bradley (R), William Z. “Zack” Fields (D) | 99% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Cliff Groh (D), Dan Sager (R) | 69% | official |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Genevieve G. Mina (D) | official | |
| 20 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Paul A. Bauer Jr. (nonpartisan, 4%), Andrew T. Gray (D, 96%) | 96% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Donna Mears (D), Aimeé Sims (R) | 98% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Ted J. Eischeid (D), Jose Roel A. Tagle (R) | 93% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Jamie Allard (R), Jim Arlington (D), Lee E. Hammermeister (D), Ruby Jones (R) | 1% | official |
| 24 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Ken McCarty (R), Gina T. Wall (R) | official | |
| 25 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Michael Bowles (R, 8%), DeLena M. Johnson (R, 68%), Steven L. Merritt (nonpartisan, 24%) | <1% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Steve J. St. Clair (R), Jeanne Troshynski (D) | 2% | official |
| 27 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | David Eastman (R), Jubilee L. Underwood (R) | official | |
| 28 | Forecast | Kathleen M. “Kit” Kennedy (D), Elexie B. Moore (R), Stephen Wright (R) | 2% | official |
| 29 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Jessica I. Kusner-Kalarchik (nonpartisan, <1%), Steve Menard (R, 89%), Gerald “Garret” Nelson (R, 6%), Kimberly Slone (D, 6%) | 6% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Sandra D. Loomis (D), Doug Massie (R), Kevin J. McCabe (R) | 3% | official |
| 31 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Maxine L. Dibert (D, 92%), Aimée Moore (R, 8%), Jonathan Powell-Mark (Libertarian, <1%) | 92% | official |
| 32 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Will Stapp (R) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Barbara Haney (R, 34%), Pepper McFarland (undeclared, 14%), Glenn M. “Mike” Prax (R, 52%) | <1% | official |
| 34 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Joy E. “Joy Beth” Cottle (nonpartisan, 65%), Harmony Tomaszewski (R, 35%) | <1% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Ashley E. Carrick (D), Jeffrey L. “Jeff” Rentzel (R) | 98% | official |
| 36 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Crystal Jones (nonpartisan, 23%), Rebecca A. Schwanke (R, 77%) | <1% | official |
| 37 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Mark Smith (nonpartisan, 15%), Evelynn M. Trefon (D, 28%), Brenda L. Wilson (R, 57%), Cade J. Woods (nonpartisan, 1%) | 28% | official |
| 38 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Joseph R. Amik (nonpartisan, 1%), Nellie “Unangiq” Jimmie (D, 32%), WIlly Keppel (R, 13%), Cj McCormick (D, 54%) | 86% | official |
| 39 | Forecast from the all-candidate primary | Neal W. “Quannaq” Foster (D, 95%), Tyler Ivanoff (nonpartisan, 5%), Reynold D. “Papa Joe” Okitkun (nonpartisan, <1%) | 95% | official |
| 40 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Saima Chase (D), Robyn Niayuq Burke Frier (D) | official |