Oregon House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
60 of 60 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 37 seats after November (80% range 35–40) and Republicans 23 (20–25). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Court Boice (R), Bret Cecil (D) | <1% | official |
| 2 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Virgle J Osborne (R) | official | |
| 3 | Forecast | Susan Fischer-Maki (D), Dwayne Yunker (R) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Alek Skarlatos (R) | official | |
| 5 | Forecast | Alexander Krigsvold (R), Pam Marsh (D) | >99% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | John P Holm (D), Kim Wallan (R) | 6% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Kori Rodley (D), Adam Wilson (R) | 96% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Lisa Fragala (D), Bill Vivian (R) | 99% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Claire Lynn (R), John Ezra Scheirman (D) | 2% | official |
| 10 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Gomberg (D) | official | |
| 11 | Forecast | Ken Jackola (R), Ivan Maluski (D) | 3% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Darin Harbick (R), Amber Smith (D) | 7% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | Jonathan T Abrahamsen (R), Nancy Nathanson (D) | >99% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Kevin T Burton (R), Julie Fahey (D) | 98% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Shelly Boshart Davis (R), Joanna Robinson (D) | 5% | official |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Sarah Finger McDonald (D) | official | |
| 17 | Forecast | Dan Farrington (R), David Nelson (D) | <1% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | Roy Kaufmann (D), Patrick Marnell (Libertarian), Amanda Staehely (R) | <1% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | Tom Andersen (D), Anna Munson (R) | 97% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Paul Evans (D), Andrew Fudge (R), Taylor A Rickey (Libertarian) | 99% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Kevin L Mannix (R), Michael Welsh (D) | 39% | official |
| 22 | Forecast | Noemi Legaspi (R), Lesly M Munoz (D) | 75% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Anna M Scharf (R), Kriss Wright (D) | 1% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lucetta A Elmer (R) | official | |
| 25 | Forecast | Ben Bowman (D), Bob Niemeyer (R) | >99% | official |
| 26 | Forecast | Stephanie Carkin (R), Sue R Rieke Smith (D), Steph Terrio (Progressive) | 98% | official |
| 27 | Forecast | Tammy Carpenter (D), G Mark Norman (R) | >99% | official |
| 28 | Forecast | Randall Fryer (R), Dacia Grayber (D) | >99% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Susan McLain (D), Brian Schimmel (R) | 98% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Charles A Ross (R), Nathan Sosa (D) | 99% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Darcey Edwards (R), Tom L Forest (D) | 2% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Cyrus Javadi (D), Max Sherman (R) | 63% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Shannon Jones Isadore (D), Ciatta R Thompson (R) | >99% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Shaunie Cousins (R), Mari Watanabe (D) | >99% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Farrah Chaichi (D), Dan Martin (R) | >99% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Michael Orth (R), Hai Pham (D) | >99% | official |
| 37 | Forecast | Chad Parker (R), Jules Walters (D) | >99% | official |
| 38 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Daniel Loc Nguyen (D) | official | |
| 39 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | April Dobson (D) | official | |
| 40 | Forecast | Adam Baker (R), Pat Hubbell (independent), Michael W Sugar (D) | 96% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Elvis Clark (R), Mark Gamba (D) | >99% | official |
| 42 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Rob Nosse (D), Morey Straus (Libertarian) | official | |
| 43 | Forecast | Tim LeMaster (R), Tawna Sanchez (D) | >99% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | Margo Logan (R), Travis Nelson (D) | 97% | official |
| 45 | Forecast | Jason Boyce (R), Thuy Tran (D) | 97% | official |
| 46 | Forecast | Willy Chotzen (D), Leo Morley (R) | >99% | official |
| 47 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andrea Valderrama (D) | official | |
| 48 | Forecast | Andrew Morrison (R), Lamar Wise (D) | 95% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Zach Hudson (D), Ann Walker (R) | 98% | official |
| 50 | Forecast | Brian Gray (R), Ricki Ruiz (D) | 97% | official |
| 51 | Forecast | Matt Bunch (R), Darla Mead (D) | 3% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Scott C Hege (R), Hank Sanders (D) | 57% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Emerson Levy (D), Michael Summers (R) | 97% | official |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason Kropf (D) | official | |
| 55 | Forecast | E Werner Reschke (R), Colby M Simmons (D) | <1% | official |
| 56 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Emily G McIntire (R) | official | |
| 57 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Josiah Dean (Pacific Green), Greg Smith (R) | official | |
| 58 | Forecast | Brian Campbell (D), Bobby Levy (R) | 2% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Vikki Breese-Iverson (R), Lawrence Jones (D) | <1% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Mark Owens (R), Beth Spell (D) | 1% | official |