California Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
20 of 40 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 31 seats after November (80% range 30–33) and Republicans 9 (7–10). In 1 seat a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 2 | Forecast | Damon Connolly (D), Tief Gibbs (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 4 | Forecast | Jaron Brandon (D), Alexandra Duarte (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 5 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 6 | Forecast | Sean Frame (D), Roger Niello (R) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 8 | Forecast | Angelique Ashby (D), Susan A Mason (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 10 | Forecast | Scott Sakakihara (D), Linda R. Price (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 12 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Nathan Magsig (R), William Brown Jr. (Libertarian) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 14 | Forecast | Esmeralda Soria (D), Darin S. DuPont (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Forecast | Melissa Hurtado (D), Guillermo Asuncion Gonzalez (R) | 85% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | Steve Padilla (D), Art Hodges (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 20 | Forecast | Caroline Menjivar (D), Tony Rodriguez (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 21 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 22 | Forecast | Susan Rubio (D), Mike Netter (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 24 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | John M. Erickson (D), Brian Goldsmith (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 26 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Sara Hernandez (D), Sarah Rascón (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (D), Joe Lisuzzo (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 30 | Forecast | Bob J. Archuleta (D), Araceli Martinez (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 32 | Forecast | Tiffanie Tate (D), Kelly Seyarto (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 34 | Forecast | Avelino Valencia (D), Rhonda Shader (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 36 | Forecast | Chris Duncan (D), Tony Strickland (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 38 | Forecast | Catherine S. Blakespear (D), Laura Bassett (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 40 | Forecast | Mara Elliott (D), Kristie Bruce-Lane (R) | 46% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |