Maine Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
35 of 35 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 21 seats after November (80% range 18–23) and Republicans 14 (12–17). In 6 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Lucien Daigle (R), Vaughn McLaughlin (D) | 1% | official |
| 2 | Forecast | Harold Stewart III (R), Janel Underwood-Charette (D) | <1% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | Ester Franklin (D), Joel Stetkis (R) | <1% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Lisa Kalp (D), Chad Perkins (R) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Elizabeth Caruso (R), Robert Sullebarger (D) | 1% | official |
| 6 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Aaron Dana (independent), Billy Faulkingham (R) | official | |
| 7 | Forecast | Nicole Grohoski (D), Cheryl Hewes (R) | >99% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Leo Kenney (R), Michael Tipping (D) | 79% | official |
| 9 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Stephen Carey (independent), Amy Roeder (D) | official | |
| 10 | Forecast | Jaric Fontaine (D), David Haggan (R) | 6% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Glenn Curry (D), Ryan Otis (R) | 97% | official |
| 12 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Nicole Kalloch (independent), Ann Matlack (D) | official | |
| 13 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Edwin Mitchell Jr. (independent), Cameron Reny (D) | official | |
| 14 | Forecast | Craig Hickman (D), Steven McGee (R) | 90% | official |
| 15 | Forecast | Amanda Heath (D), Kati McCormick (R) | 58% | official |
| 16 | Forecast | Scott Cyrway (R), Patric Moore (D) | 17% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Jo-Jean Keller (D), Richard Mason (R) | <1% | official |
| 18 | Forecast | John Andrews (R), Elizabeth Bosworth (D) | 1% | official |
| 19 | Forecast | David Duguay (independent), Joseph Martin (R), Peter Southam (D) | 6% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Bruce Bickford (R), Michael Scott (D) | 26% | official |
| 21 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Shanna Cox (D), Eryn Soule (independent) | official | |
| 22 | Forecast | Nathan Burnett (D), Kimberly Pomerleau (R) | 1% | official |
| 23 | Forecast | Matthea Daughtry (D), Bernard Porter (R) | >99% | official |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Denise Tepler (D) | official | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Teresa Pierce (D) | official | |
| 26 | Forecast | Kenneth Cianchette (R), Timothy Nangle (D) | 88% | official |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jill Duson (D) | official | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Rachel Ross (D) | official | |
| 29 | Forecast | Anne Carney (D), Vincent Maietta (R) | >99% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | M. Moody (R), Sophia Warren (D) | 99% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Donna Bailey (D), Scott Eccleston (R) | 98% | official |
| 32 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Henry Ingwersen (D), Jason Litalien (independent) | official | |
| 33 | Forecast | Matthew Harrington (R), Mark Vigliotta (D) | 2% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Jonathan Fallon (R), Daniel Sayre (D) | 93% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Michele Meyer (D), Julie Rakic (R) | >99% | official |