Utah Senate
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
15 of 29 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 6 seats after November (80% range 6–7) and Republicans 23 (22–23). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Claudia Bigler (D), Scott Sandall (R), Julie Quinlan (Forward) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 2 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 3 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 4 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 5 | Forecast | Jill F. Koford (R), “Cj” Christina Hernandez (D) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 6 | Forecast | Josh Smith (Forward), Tami Tran (R), Jared Neal (D) | 6% | official (archive copy) |
| 7 | Forecast | Stephanie Hollist (R), Jeffrey Ostler (Constitution), Garret Rushforth (D) | 6% | official (archive copy) |
| 8 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 9 | Forecast | Thaddeus A Evans (R), Jen Plumb (D), J. Lowry Snow (Forward) | 96% | official (archive copy) |
| 10 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 11 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Emily Buss (Forward), Brooks Benson (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 12 | Forecast | Deidre Tyler (R), Karen Kwan (D) | 97% | official (archive copy) |
| 13 | Forecast | Colin Smith (Forward), Ryan L. Mahoney (R), Silvia Catten (D) | >99% | official (archive copy) |
| 14 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Stephanie Pitcher (D) | official (archive copy) | |
| 15 | Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat) | |||
| 16 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 17 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 18 | Forecast | A Dane Anderson (D), Doug Fiefia (R) | <1% | official (archive copy) |
| 19 | Forecast | Kirk Cullimore (R), Shana Anderson (D) | 1% | official (archive copy) |
| 20 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Annette McRae (Forward), Ronald M Winterton (R) | official (archive copy) | |
| 21 | Forecast | Kandee Myers (D), Brady Brammer (R), Wayne Woodfield (Forward) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 22 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 23 | Forecast | Tucker Smith (D), Keith Grover (R) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 24 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 25 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 26 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 27 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) | |||
| 28 | Forecast | Evan J Vickers (R), Richard S Robillard (D) | 4% | official (archive copy) |
| 29 | Not up in 2026 (held by Republican) |