Connecticut House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
>99%chance of a Democratic majority
<1%chance of a Republican majority
76seats for a majority, of 151
151 of 151 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 108 seats after November (80% range 101–119) and Republicans 43 (32–50).
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
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Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mathew Ritter (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 2 | Forecast | Raghib Allie-Brennan (D), Deborah K. Rizzo (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 3 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Minnie Gonzalez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 4 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Julio Concepcion (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 5 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kyle Anderson (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 6 | Forecast | James Jimmy Sánchez (D), Nicole CoCo Roscoe (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 7 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Joshua Malik Hall (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 8 | Forecast | Francis Lombard (D), William Gifford (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 9 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jason Rojas (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 10 | Forecast | Angie Parkinson (D), Chris Tierinni (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 11 | Forecast | Patrick Biggins (D), Salema Davis (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 12 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Geoffrey Luxenberg (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 13 | Forecast | Jason Doucette (D), Bianca Stanescu (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 14 | Forecast | Harrison Amadasun (D), Tom Delnicki (R) | 14% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 15 | Forecast | Bobby Gibson (D), Seth M. Pitts (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 16 | Forecast | Melissa Osborne (D), Jason Levy (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 17 | Forecast | Eleni Kavros DeGraw (D), Andrew F Ziemba (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 18 | Forecast | Tiffani McGinnis (D), Philip Tummescheit (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 19 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Olaleye Onikuyide (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 20 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kate Farrar (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 21 | Forecast | Mike Demicco (D), Gary A. Palumbo (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 22 | Forecast | Rebecca Martinez (D), Richard Mette (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 23 | Forecast | Jane Wisialowski (D), Barbara Labriola (R) | 63% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 24 | Forecast | Emmanuel "Manny" Sanchez (D), Tina Santana (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 25 | Forecast | Iris Noemi Sánchez (D), Jamie Bubba Vaughan (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 26 | Forecast | David DeFronzo (D), Sal S Simsek (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gary Turco (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 28 | Forecast | Amy Morrin Bello (D), Bill Davidson (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 29 | Forecast | Kerry Szeps Wood (D), Stanley Stasiowski (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 30 | Forecast | Linda Pierce (D), Donna M. Veach (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 31 | Forecast | Moise "Moses" Carelus (D), Susan Dzialo (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 32 | Forecast | Marilyn Teitelbaum Dworkin (D), Christie M. Carpino (R) | 6% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 33 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Brandon Chafee (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 34 | Forecast | Meghan Rosenfeld (D), Melissa Ziobron (R) | 41% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 35 | Forecast | Cinzia Lettieri (D), Chris Aniskovich (R) | 53% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 36 | Forecast | Renee LaMark Muir (D), Guy Tuccero (R) | 95% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 37 | Forecast | Nick Menapace (D), Anne Santoro (R) | 88% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 38 | Forecast | Nick Gauthier (D), John Foley (R) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 39 | Forecast | Anthony Nolan (D), John W Russell (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 40 | Forecast | Daniel Gaiewski (D), Isabelle Roode (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 41 | Forecast | Aundré Bumgardner (D), Thaler Hefel (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 42 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Savet Constantine (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 43 | Forecast | Bill Heughins (D), Greg Howard (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 44 | Forecast | Samantha Derenthal (D), Anne Dubay Dauphinais (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 45 | Forecast | Matt Danieluk (D), Brian Lanoue (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 46 | Forecast | Derell Q Wilson (D), Marcia Wilbur (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 47 | Forecast | Marcus Palumbo (D), Doug Dubitsky (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 48 | Forecast | Bob Fernandez (D), Mark DeCaprio (R) | 43% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 49 | Forecast | Susan Johnson (D), Brian Saucier (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 50 | Forecast | Pat Boyd (D), Anthony J. Emilio (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 51 | Forecast | Lina Wagner (D), Chris Stewart (R) | 22% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 52 | Forecast | Vincent Tocci (D), Kurt Vail (R) | 8% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 53 | Forecast | Tammy Nuccio (R), Michelle Doucette Cunningham (D) | 11% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 54 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gregg Haddad (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 55 | Forecast | Ellen Paul (D), Steve Weir (R) | 18% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 56 | Forecast | Kevin Brown (D), Andy Tedford (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 57 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jaime S. Foster (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 58 | Forecast | John P Santanella (D), Kelly Hemmeler (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 59 | Forecast | Rick LeBorious (D), Carol Hall (R) | 51% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 60 | Forecast | Jane Garibay (D), Chantelle Ankerman (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 61 | Forecast | James Mol (D), Tami Zawistowski (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 62 | Forecast | Kim Becker (D), Mark W. Anderson (R) | 28% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 63 | Forecast | Caitlin Hall (D), Jay M. Case (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 64 | Forecast | Maria Horn (D), Katelynn Borraiz (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 65 | Forecast | Edward M Corey (D), Joe Canino (R) | 55% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 66 | Forecast | Suzanne Lovig (D), Karen Reddington-Hughes (R) | 14% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 67 | Forecast | Alexandra Thomas (D), William Buckbee (R) | 1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 68 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joe Polletta (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 69 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jason Buchsbaum (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 70 | Forecast | Jeff Litke (D), Seth Bronko (R) | 19% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 71 | Forecast | Stephen R Ferrucci III (D), William Pizzuto (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 72 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Larry B. Butler (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 73 | Forecast | Ronald Napoli Jr. (D), Terence Lott Sr. (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 74 | Forecast | Michael DiGiovancarlo (D), Ollie Gray III (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 75 | Forecast | Geraldo Reyes Jr. (D), Faithalee Goclowski (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 76 | Forecast | Jennifer C. Davis (D), John Piscopo (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 77 | Forecast | DeWayne K Wynn Jr. (D), Cara C. Pavalock-D'Amato (R) | 4% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 78 | Forecast | Nate Brown (D), Joe Hoxha (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 79 | Forecast | Mary B Fortier (D), Cheryl L. Thibeault (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 80 | Forecast | Cheryl Hilton (D), Gale L. Mastrofrancesco (R) | 2% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 81 | Forecast | Chris Poulos (D), Timothy J. Wilk (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 82 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Michael D. Quinn (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 83 | Forecast | Chad Cardillo (D), Bob Ham (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 84 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Hilda E. Santiago (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 85 | Forecast | Samuel Carmody (D), Tom Laffin (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 86 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Vincent J. Candelora (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 87 | Forecast | Kathleen Kimball (D), David W. Yaccarino (R) | <1% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 88 | Forecast | Josh Elliott (D), Hudson Molinari (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 89 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Lezlye Zupkus (R) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 90 | Forecast | David J. Fritz (D), Craig C. Fishbein (R) | 23% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 91 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Laurie Sweet (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eli Sabin (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 93 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Toni E Walker (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 94 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steven Winter (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Juan Candelaria (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Roland J. Lemar (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 97 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Wildaliz Bermudez (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 98 | Forecast | Moira Rader (D), Carlyle Ciccone (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 99 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Karen A. Martin (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 100 | Forecast | Kai Juanna Belton (D), Susan Manke (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 101 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | John-Michael Parker (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 102 | Forecast | Robin Comey (D), Paul Crisci (R) | 96% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 103 | Forecast | Liz Linehan (D), Jeff Weiss (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 104 | Forecast | Kara Rochelle (D), Daniel Sexton (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 105 | Forecast | Josh James Beaupre (D), Nicole Klarides-Ditria (R) | 3% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 106 | Forecast | Michelle Embree Ku (D), Mitch Bolinsky (R) | 41% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 107 | Forecast | Julie Kerton (D), Martin J. Foncello (R) | 36% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 108 | Forecast | Anne Weisberg (D), Patrick Callahan (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 109 | Forecast | Farley A. Santos (D), Ed Vachovetz (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 110 | Forecast | Bob Godfrey (D), Anthony Rongetti (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 111 | Forecast | Aimee Berger-Girvalo (D), Blake Consentino (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 112 | Forecast | Wiley Mullins (D), Tony Scott (R) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 113 | Forecast | Bryan Lizotte (D), Joe Lauretti (R) | 5% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 114 | Forecast | Mary Welander (D), Brooke Hopkins (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 115 | Forecast | Bill Heffernan (D), Victor Borras (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 116 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Treneé McGee (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 117 | Forecast | Mj Shannon (D), Ray Collins (R) | 93% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 118 | Forecast | Toni Lombardi (D), Steve Visconti (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 119 | Forecast | Alex Armstrong (D), Kathy Kennedy (R) | 9% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 120 | Forecast | Kaitlyn Shake (D), Troy D Gargiulo (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 121 | Forecast | Joseph P. Gresko (D), Rafael Irizarry (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 122 | Forecast | Mandy Kilmartin (D), Ben McGorty (R) | 12% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 123 | Forecast | Bill Mecca (D), David J Rutigliano (R) | 35% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 124 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Andre F Baker Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 125 | Forecast | Meredith Tobitsch (D), Thomas Patrick O'Dea Jr. (R) | 13% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 126 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Fred Gee Jr. (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 127 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marcus A. Brown (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 128 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Christopher Rosario (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 129 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Steve Stafstrom (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 130 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Antonio "Tone" Felipe (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 131 | Forecast | Heather Stafford (D), Arnold Jensen (R) | 10% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 132 | Forecast | Jennifer Leeper (D), Carol Pontrelli (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 133 | Forecast | Cristin McCarthy Vahey (D), Lisa Miro (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 134 | Forecast | Sarah Keitt (D), Ken Astarita (R) | 94% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 135 | Forecast | Anne M Hughes (D), Darrell Harris (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 136 | Forecast | Lee Goldstein (D), Douglas Ouellette (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 137 | Forecast | Kadeem Roberts (D), Tricia Ciccone (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 138 | Forecast | Kenneth Gucker (D), Irving Fox (R) | 89% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 139 | Forecast | Larry Pemberton Jr. (D), Brandon Sabbag (R) | 97% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 140 | Forecast | Travis Simms Jr. (D), Enrique Santiago (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 141 | Forecast | Erika Procaccini (D), Tracy Marra (R) | 7% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 142 | Forecast | Lucy Dathan (D), Don Mastronardi (R) | 98% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 143 | Forecast | Dominique Johnson (D), Greg Helms (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 144 | Forecast | Hubert D. Delany (D), Layne Rodney (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 145 | Forecast | Corey P. Paris (D), Andrew Krill (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 146 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eilish Collins Main (D) | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) | |
| 147 | Forecast | Matt Blumenthal (D), Carola Cammann (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 148 | Forecast | Jonathan Jacobson (D), Dennis LoDolce (R) | >99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 149 | Forecast | Amiel Goldberg (D), Tina Courpas (R) | 42% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 150 | Forecast | Steve Meskers (D), Jonathan Charles Goldstein (R) | 99% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |
| 151 | Forecast | Hector Arzeno (D), Michael S Mason (R) | 92% | aggregator (The Ballot Brief) |