Louisiana · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Jamie Davis
Who is running?
Jamie Davis (Democratic), Julia Letlow (Republican). The margin below is Jamie Davis minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Louisiana elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026. The seat is open in effect: two-term Republican Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial, lost the May 16 primary with 24.8%. Under House Bill 17 this is the first Senate race in Louisiana since 2010 held with party primaries rather than a blanket primary. The text notes Democrats have not won a Senate election in the state since 2008. The state profile records a Black share of 0.3 and a college share of 0.3.
The Republican nominee is Julia Letlow, U.S. representative for Louisiana's 5th district since 2021, endorsed by Trump; she led the primary with 44.8% and beat state treasurer John Fleming 56.9% to 43.1% in the June 27 runoff. The Democratic nominee is Jamie Davis, a former Tensas Parish police juror, who took 47.4% in the first round and 79.9% in the runoff against Gary Crockett. The latest fundraising in the text is from May 17, 2026: Letlow had raised $4,398,631 with $1,613,102 on hand, Davis $562,283 with $219,971 on hand.
All ten raters listed call the race R. Two general-election polls are given: Hart Research Associates (D), September 17–19, 2026, Letlow 48%, Davis 44%; Public Policy Polling (D) for Davis's campaign, July 21–22, 2026, Letlow 41%, Davis 37%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
The winner will succeed two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who was defeated in the primary.
The winner will succeed two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who was defeated in the primary.
Republican congresswoman Julia Letlow and Democratic Tensas Parish police juror Jamie Davis are the nominees for their respective parties.
Republican congresswoman Julia Letlow and Democratic Tensas Parish police juror Jamie Davis are the nominees for their respective parties.
Tensas Parish police juror and runner-up for Louisiana's 21st House of Representatives district in 2023
Julia Letlow, U.S. representative from Louisiana's 5th congressional district (2021–present)
Letlow, endorsed by Trump, advanced to a runoff against Fleming on June 27 and won the nomination with 56.9% of the vote.
Sabato's Crystal Ball R September 22, 2026 Silver Bulletin R September 29, 2026
Jamie Davis (D) $562,283 $342,312 $219,971
Hart Research Associates (D) September 17–19, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.5% |48% 44% 8%
On January 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Julia Letlow, who officially entered the race two days later.
With the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, the race is the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since 2010.
A Democratic runoff between Davis and political consultant Gary Crockett was held the same day, which Davis won with 79.9% of the vote.
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Louisiana since 2008.
Not in the source: No general-election fundraising is given; the latest reports are from May 17, 2026.; The forecast rows carry no basis field, so the text cannot say whether the model uses the statewide polls listed here.; No presidential results for Louisiana are given in the text.; No third-party or independent general-election candidates are listed.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as 38c3f5003e46; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Bill Cassidy (Republican), in this chamber since 2015, 2 terms, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (Chairman); Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs.
John Kennedy (Republican), in this chamber since 2017, 2 terms, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Senate Committee on the Budget; Senate Committee on the Judiciary.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming, John C. Jr. (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $12,266,221 | $40,339 | 0% | 94% | $14,015 | $700,000 |
| Cassidy, William M. (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $7,000,079 | $4,827,334 | 25% | 0% | $597,710 | $543,120 |
| Miguez, Blake (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $6,612,410 | $2,032,592 | 1% | 46% | $251,657 | $2,062 |
| Letlow, Julia (REP) challenger | $6,210,122 | $1,427,072 | 12% | 0% | $11,283,166 | $10,861,763 |
| Davis, Jamie (DEM) challenger | $1,983,548 | $479,104 | 0% | 1% | $0 | $0 |
| Seiden, Kathy W (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $1,202,191 | $0 | 0% | 89% | $0 | $0 |
| Emerson, Julie Cathryn (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $688,875 | $27,520 | 3% | 44% | $0 | $0 |
| Crockett, Gary (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $350,000 | $270,987 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
| Wyatt, Samuel Lee Mr. (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $299,615 | $0 | 0% | 64% | $0 | $0 |
| Albares, Nicholas S. (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $143,284 | $0 | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Skrmetta, Eric (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $67,750 | $4,645 | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Spencer, Mark (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $5,421 | $55 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through September 24, 2026; $24,253,493 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+20.3 | R+18.9 | R+21.4 |
A shift of 1.0 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 26.6% | 34.0% | -7.5 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 56.2% | 66.3% | -10.0 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 30.8% | 10.1% | +20.7 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 7.0% | 12.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 1.7% | 4.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 4.7% | 9.6% | -4.9 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 37.8 | 39.1 | -1.28 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $60,023 | $77,633 | $-17,610 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $208,700 | $314,132 | $-105,432 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 67.3% | 67.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 6.3% | 4.8% | +1.5 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 2.4% | 3.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 7.2% | 12.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 16.7% | 11.1% | +5.6 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 31.6% | 32.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 1.8% | 2.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 1.7% | 2.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.49 | 0.47 | +0.03 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 4.3% | 4.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | -0.3 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | -0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $61,897 | $70,662 | $-8,765 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 31.6% | 32.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 23.9% | 19.4% | +4.5 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 6.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.6% | 4.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 6.3% | 3.8% | +2.5 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 1.1% | 0.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.0% | 0.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.2% | 1.2% | +0.0 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.1 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -32.7 and +1.4 points. Election day: -35.2 to +1.3. The election-day interval is 2.5 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 11.16 points, made of latent opinion 62%, race-specific polling error 20%, drift to election day 13%, correlated polling error 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
2 polls, most recent 2026-09-19. 50% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Jamie Davis ahead of Julia Letlow. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -11.1 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls.
Not answered here: why it changed. Splitting a move into new polls, time and specification means re-running the earlier model against the later inputs -- two extra posterior fits -- so it is computed on a cadence (scripts/attribute_forecasts.py) rather than while you wait. This pair of runs has not been decomposed yet. The size of the move is shown; the cause is not guessed at.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run cb2522a9-2929-474d-9454-7314ba07e148 and election-day run 348eebfd-a16a-4561-a377-1a57fec8d5ac, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.