Missouri House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
82seats for a majority, of 163
163 of 163 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 54 seats after November (80% range 48–60) and Republicans 109 (103–115). In 3 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
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Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeff Farnan (R) | official | |
| 2 | Forecast | Phil Fox (R), Casey Scott (D), Shelby Dreier (Libertarian) | 2% | official |
| 3 | Forecast | P. Jeremy Mosley (R), Corey Luebbering (D) | 3% | official |
| 4 | Forecast | Keith Gudehus (R), Tristan Sutton (D) | <1% | official |
| 5 | Forecast | Roth McElvain (R), John Paul Tomko (D) | 3% | official |
| 6 | Forecast | Kelly Gatts (R), Robert Johnson (D), John Davison (Libertarian) | <1% | official |
| 7 | Forecast | Jeremy Clevenger (R), Adrian Cooper (D) | <1% | official |
| 8 | Forecast | Josh Hurlbert (R), Amy Minich (D) | <1% | official |
| 9 | Forecast | Dean VanSchoiack (R), Gena Puckett (D) | 2% | official |
| 10 | Forecast | Paul Gatewood (R), LaTonya T. Williams (D) | 1% | official |
| 11 | Forecast | Taylor Crouse (R), Luke Rae (D) | 5% | official |
| 12 | Forecast | Jerry Hickey (R), Tracey Steele (D) | 51% | official |
| 13 | Forecast | John Elliott (R), Jacoby Wynkoop (D) | <1% | official |
| 14 | Forecast | Frank Pendleton (R), Ashley Aune (D) | 93% | official |
| 15 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kenneth Jamison (D) | official | |
| 16 | Forecast | Chris Brown (R), Dan Kinate (D) | 7% | official |
| 17 | Forecast | Bill Allen (R), Susan Hoisington (D) | 23% | official |
| 18 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Eric Woods (D) | official | |
| 19 | Forecast | Karen Irene Spalding (R), Wick Thomas (D) | >99% | official |
| 20 | Forecast | Mike Steinmeyer (R), Jeff Spicer (D) | 2% | official |
| 21 | Forecast | Michael Young (R), Will Jobe (D) | 82% | official |
| 22 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Yolanda Young (D) | official | |
| 23 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tony L. Van Trece (D) | official | |
| 24 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kevin Garner (D) | official | |
| 25 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Pattie Mansur (D) | official | |
| 26 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tiffany Price (D) | official | |
| 27 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Melissa A Douglas (D) | official | |
| 28 | Forecast | Steven W Hinton (R), Donna Barnes (D) | >99% | official |
| 29 | Forecast | Robert Bruette (R), Tedi H. Rowland (D) | 92% | official |
| 30 | Forecast | Jeff Martin (R), Kevin Grover (D) | 20% | official |
| 31 | Forecast | Ron Fowler (R), Justin Geiser (D) | 7% | official |
| 32 | Forecast | Michael Todd (R), Jennifer Cassidy (D) | <1% | official |
| 33 | Forecast | Carolyn Caton (R), Troy Latterell (D) | 5% | official |
| 34 | Forecast | Sean Smith (R), Kemp Strickler (D) | 84% | official |
| 35 | Forecast | Jacquie Aziere Stenger (R), Michael Scott (D) | 95% | official |
| 36 | Forecast | Dave Thomas (R), Anthony T. Ealy Jr. (D) | 99% | official |
| 37 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Karissa Marie Varga (D) | official | |
| 38 | Forecast | Mary Hill (R), Martin (Marty) Jacobs (D) | 81% | official |
| 39 | Forecast | Mark Meirath (R), Tanya Lakins (D) | 3% | official |
| 40 | Forecast | Chad Perkins (R), Thomas D McBeth (D), Sheri Jay (Libertarian) | 2% | official |
| 41 | Forecast | Doyle Justus (R), Matthew Beger (D), Dalton P. Johnson (Libertarian) | <1% | official |
| 42 | Forecast | Jeff Myers (R), Amy Pritchard (D) | <1% | official |
| 43 | Forecast | Brendan Webber (R), Rich Gold (D) | <1% | official |
| 44 | Forecast | John Martin (R), Bekki Brewer (D) | <1% | official |
| 45 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kathy Steinhoff (D) | official | |
| 46 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | David Tyson Smith (D) | official | |
| 47 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Adrian Plank (D) | official | |
| 48 | Forecast | Tim Taylor (R), Hope Tinker (D) | <1% | official |
| 49 | Forecast | Jim Schulte (R), Jessica O’Neal-Slisz (D) | <1% | official |
| 50 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Gregg Bush (D) | official | |
| 51 | Forecast | Stephanie Gooden (R), Ron Fauss (D) | <1% | official |
| 52 | Forecast | Israel Baeza (R), Rene Vance (D) | <1% | official |
| 53 | Forecast | Terry Thompson (R), Beth Grubb (D) | <1% | official |
| 54 | Forecast | Brandon Phelps (R), Taigan Rayne Plummer (D) | <1% | official |
| 55 | Forecast | William (Bill) Irwin (R), Jon Pennell (D) | 3% | official |
| 56 | Forecast | Steve Baker (R), Staci Czar (D) | 23% | official |
| 57 | Forecast | Matt Sergent (R), Michael D. Walbom (D) | <1% | official |
| 58 | Forecast | Willard Haley (R), Roger Korenberg (D) | 2% | official |
| 59 | Forecast | Carrie Tergin (R), Becky Kroll (D) | 4% | official |
| 60 | Forecast | Shane Kampeter (R), Suzanne Luther (D) | 1% | official |
| 61 | Forecast | Bruce Sassmann (R), Stacy Bax (D) | 1% | official |
| 62 | Forecast | Sherri Gallick (R), Liz Davenport (D) | 2% | official |
| 63 | Forecast | Tony Lovasco (R), Donald R Looney Jr. (D) | 1% | official |
| 64 | Forecast | Deanna Self (R), Amber Teson (D) | 4% | official |
| 65 | Forecast | Wendy L. Hausman (R), Dale Conoyer (D) | 5% | official |
| 66 | Forecast | Laura Mitchell-Riley (R), Marlene Terry (D) | >99% | official |
| 67 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tonya Rush (D) | official | |
| 68 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Kem Smith (D) | official | |
| 69 | Forecast | Scott Miller (R), Chris Chapman (D) | 3% | official |
| 70 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Stephanie Boykin (D) | official | |
| 71 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nicole Greer (D) | official | |
| 72 | Forecast | Jeffrey Jacks (R), Patrick James Wroblewski (D) | 98% | official |
| 73 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Kennedy Moore (D), Joy Denise Dabney (Libertarian) | official | |
| 74 | Forecast | Jack Howard (R), Marla Smith (D) | >99% | official |
| 75 | Forecast | Brandon Wilke (R), Chanel Mosley (D) | 99% | official |
| 76 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marlon Anderson (D) | official | |
| 77 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Kimberly-Ann Collins (D), Michael Corey (Libertarian) | official | |
| 78 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Marty Joe Murray (D) | official | |
| 79 | Forecast | Mike Hebron (R), Rachel D’Souza (D) | 99% | official |
| 80 | Forecast | Jennie Drag (R), Elizabeth (Lilly) Fuchs (D) | >99% | official |
| 81 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | James (Jimmy) Lappe (D) | official | |
| 82 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Nick Kimble (D) | official | |
| 83 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Ray Reed (D), Andrew Bolin (Libertarian) | official | |
| 84 | Forecast | Robert Vroman (R), Del Taylor (D) | >99% | official |
| 85 | Forecast | Jerron J Sutton (R), Yolonda Fountain Henderson (D) | >99% | official |
| 86 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jeff Hales (D) | official | |
| 87 | Forecast | Dan Hyatt (R), Connie Steinmetz (D) | 99% | official |
| 88 | Forecast | Holly Jones (R), Jennifer Trickey (D) | 1% | official |
| 89 | Forecast | George Hruza (R), Bryan Troop (D) | 4% | official |
| 90 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mark Boyko (D) | official | |
| 91 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jo Doll (D) | official | |
| 92 | Forecast | Kenneth Abram (R), Michael Burton (D) | 93% | official |
| 93 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bridget Walsh Moore (D) | official | |
| 94 | Forecast | Maryellen Murphy (R), Cathy A Summers (D) | 12% | official |
| 95 | Forecast | Bob Mahacek (R), Meredith Sumenek (D) | 2% | official |
| 96 | Forecast | Brad Christ (R), Matt Vitale (D), Shane Ferguson (Libertarian) | 8% | official |
| 97 | Forecast | David Robertson (R), Dan Schaefer (D) | 1% | official |
| 98 | Forecast | Timothy Bosch (R), Jaclyn Zimmermann (D) | 86% | official |
| 99 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Tori Schafer (D) | official | |
| 100 | Forecast | Philip Oehlerking (R), Mary Ann Perkins (D), Ken Newhouse (Libertarian) | 34% | official |
| 101 | Forecast | Ben Keathley (R), Paul Lentz (D), Jeff Coleman (Libertarian) | 10% | official |
| 102 | Forecast | Richard W West (R), David Rogers (D) | <1% | official |
| 103 | Forecast | Dave Hinman (R), Don Crozier (D) | 4% | official |
| 104 | Forecast | Terri Violet (R), Tara Murray (D) | 9% | official |
| 105 | Forecast | Colin Wellenkamp (R), Cat Clayton (D) | 17% | official |
| 106 | Forecast | Travis Wilson (R), Jewel Kelly (D) | 8% | official |
| 107 | Forecast | Mark Matthiesen (R), Gary Wester (D) | 1% | official |
| 108 | Forecast | Mike Costlow (R), Stephen Scott (D) | <1% | official |
| 109 | Forecast | John Simmons (R), Trent Leslie (D) | <1% | official |
| 110 | Forecast | Niles Stephens (R), Claire Heinrich (D) | 1% | official |
| 111 | Forecast | Cecelie Williams (R), Stacey Hagen (D) | 2% | official |
| 112 | Forecast | Ed Callahan (R), Dave Rekosh (D) | <1% | official |
| 113 | Forecast | Phil Amato (R), Ashley Drury (D) | 3% | official |
| 114 | Forecast | Ann Moloney (R), Jessie Shepherd (D) | <1% | official |
| 115 | Forecast | Bill Lucas (R), David George (D) | <1% | official |
| 116 | Forecast | Jason Green (R), Whitney Wisker-Brooks (D) | 3% | official |
| 117 | Forecast | Becky Laubinger (R), Eli Flowers (D) | <1% | official |
| 118 | Forecast | Amy DeClue (R), Sarah Rachel Puckett (D) | 3% | official |
| 119 | Forecast | Brad Banderman (R), Amy Thompson (D) | <1% | official |
| 120 | Forecast | John W Hewkin (R), Ray Bruno (D) | <1% | official |
| 121 | Forecast | Keith Pritchard (R), Miguel Arellanes (D) | <1% | official |
| 122 | Forecast | Tara J Peters (R), Dan Victor (D) | <1% | official |
| 123 | Forecast | Jeff Vernetti (R), Cody Hutcheson (D) | <1% | official |
| 124 | Forecast | Kevin Onstott (R), Tara Hallmark (D) | <1% | official |
| 125 | Forecast | Dane Diehl (R), Lynda C Jones (D) | <1% | official |
| 126 | Forecast | Jim Kalberloh (R), Melissa Perry (D) | <1% | official |
| 127 | Forecast | Brenden J. Kelley (R), Marvin Manring (D), Racheal Martin (independent) | <1% | official |
| 128 | Forecast | Christopher D. Warwick (R), Michael L. Martin (D), Shane Sawyer (independent) | <1% | official |
| 129 | Forecast | Will Worsham (R), John Gray (D) | <1% | official |
| 130 | Forecast | Bishop Davidson (R), Leslie Jones (D) | <1% | official |
| 131 | Forecast | Bill Owen (R), Ashley Cossins (D) | <1% | official |
| 132 | Forecast | Russ Gosselin (R), Jeremy Dean (D) | 82% | official |
| 133 | Forecast | Jerry Angelo (R), Katelyn Zach (D) | 12% | official |
| 134 | Forecast | Alex Riley (R), K. Grant (D) | 4% | official |
| 135 | Forecast | Michael Hasty (R), John Michael (Johnny) Chiles (D) | 88% | official |
| 136 | Forecast | Jacey Buckles (R), Stephanie Hein (D) | 79% | official |
| 137 | Forecast | Darin Chappell (R), Bryce F. Lockwood (D) | <1% | official |
| 138 | Forecast | Burt Whaley (R), Chris Daugherty (D) | 2% | official |
| 139 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bob Titus (R) | official | |
| 140 | Forecast | Jamie Ray Gragg (R), Julia E. Curran (D) | <1% | official |
| 141 | Forecast | Melissa Schmidt (R), Darrel (Mike) Swofford (D) | <1% | official |
| 142 | Forecast | Jeff Brown (R), Josh Ray (D) | 2% | official |
| 143 | Forecast | Bennie Cook (R), Marsha Snodgrass (D) | <1% | official |
| 144 | Forecast | Chris Dodson Dinkins (R), Andrew J Eye (D) | <1% | official |
| 145 | Forecast | Bryant Wolfin (R), Carl Kinsky (D) | 2% | official |
| 146 | Forecast | Lucas Green (R), Mary Harriet Talbut (D) | 3% | official |
| 147 | Forecast | John Voss (R), Tim Palmer (D), Greg Tlapek (Libertarian) | <1% | official |
| 148 | Forecast | David A. Dolan (R), Casey Carlisle (D) | 2% | official |
| 149 | Forecast | Scott Crumpecker (R), John Armbruster (D) | 3% | official |
| 150 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Cameron Bunting Parker (R) | official | |
| 151 | Forecast | Steve W Jordan (R), Pam Proffitt-Rowland (D) | <1% | official |
| 152 | Forecast | Jeff Shawan (R), Corretta Bishop (D) | 2% | official |
| 153 | Forecast | Keith Wayne Elliott (R), Les Majors (D) | <1% | official |
| 154 | Forecast | Lisa K Durnell (R), Jojo Stewart (D) | <1% | official |
| 155 | Forecast | Matthew Overcast (R), Joshua Berzins (D) | <1% | official |
| 156 | Forecast | Brian H. Seitz (R), Trent Davis (D) | <1% | official |
| 157 | Forecast | Mitch Boggs (R), Bradley Bos (D) | 2% | official |
| 158 | Forecast | Scott Cupps (R), Chris Foster (D) | <1% | official |
| 159 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Joel Mace (R) | official | |
| 160 | Forecast | Cheryle Perkins (R), Angela Thomas (D) | <1% | official |
| 161 | Forecast | Thomas Ross (R), Aaron Joseph Metzger (D) | 1% | official |
| 162 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Roger Koch (R) | official | |
| 163 | Forecast | Cathy Jo Loy (R), Brenna Barksdale (D) | <1% | official |