Alabama · Senate
election 2026-11-03 · forecast as of 2026-10-01 · margins and probabilities are for Everett Wess
Who is running?
Everett Wess (Democratic), Barry Moore (Republican). The margin below is Everett Wess minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.
The race, in brief
Alabama elects a U.S. senator on November 3, 2026. Republican incumbent Tommy Tuberville is not seeking a second term, running for governor instead, so the seat is open. The state profile records a median age of 39.3, a Black share of 0.3 and a college share of 0.3.
The Republican nominee is Barry Moore, U.S. representative from AL-1 since 2021, who led the May 19 primary with 39.2% and won the June 16 runoff over Jared Hudson with 55.8%. The Democratic nominee is Everett Wess, an attorney and perennial candidate, who led his primary with 39.8% and won the runoff over Dakarai Larriett with 54.6%. Independent Craig Jelks has also declared. As of June 30, 2026 Moore had raised $3,787,330 with $627,788 on hand; Wess had raised $83,341 with $0 on hand.
All ten raters listed, including Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Split Ticket, say R. One general-election poll is recorded: 'yes. every kid.', July 8–11, 2026, Moore 47%, Wess 32%, 20% undecided.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
Republican incumbent Tommy Tuberville is not seeking a second term in order to run for governor.
Republican congressman Barry Moore and Democratic attorney Everett Wess are the nominees for their respective parties.
Republican congressman Barry Moore and Democratic attorney Everett Wess are the nominees for their respective parties.
Everett Wess, attorney and perennial candidate
Barry Moore, U.S. representative from AL-1 (2021–present)
Moore won the Republican runoff with 55.8% of the vote over businessman Jared Hudson and Wess won the Democratic runoff with 54.6% of the vote over businessman Dakarai Larriett.
The Cook Political Report R September 23, 2026 Decision Desk HQ R September 25, 2026
| Everett Wess (D) $83,341 $94,747 $0
yes. every kid. July 8–11, 2026 601 (LV) ± 4.0% |47% 32%
Craig Jelks, educator and candidate for mayor of Charleston, South Carolina, in 2011
Steve Marshall, attorney general of Alabama (2017–present)
Not in the source: facts.forecast rows have no basis field, so the input does not say whether the model used the one general-election poll.; Rater labels are 'R' only, with no Lean/Likely/Safe detail.; Endorsement sections are empty in the text; Morgan Murphy's endorsement of Moore is the only one mentioned.; No background on Wess beyond 'attorney and perennial candidate'.; The 'yes. every kid.' poll lists no partisan or sponsor label in the text.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as b9f0efc3aec2; written by claude-opus-5-5 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Tommy Tuberville (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 1 term, class 2 (term ends 2027). Committees: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; Senate Committee on Armed Services; Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs; Senate Special Committee on Aging.
Katie Boyd Britt (Republican), in this chamber since 2023, 1 term, class 3 (term ends 2029). Committees: Senate Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Senate Committee on Rules and Administration; Senate Committee on the Judiciary; Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore, Felix Barry (REP) open seat | $3,787,330 | $627,788 | 23% | 1% | $16,480,824 | $3,018 |
| Walker, Rodney (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $2,015,963 | $0 | 0% | 95% | $0 | $0 |
| Hudson, Jared (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $1,920,539 | $113,889 | 1% | 0% | $1,913,311 | $3,013,204 |
| Marshall, Steven T (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $1,298,351 | $0 | 7% | 0% | $1,036,720 | $17,143 |
| Murphy, Morgan W. W. (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $1,281,322 | $105,416 | 1% | 8% | $0 | $0 |
| Tuberville, Thomas H (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $726,222 | $66,590 | 18% | 0% | $111,710 | $0 |
| Sweetser, Kyle (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $166,056 | $2,684 | 9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Larriett, Dakarai (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $154,254 | $2,416 | 0% | 2% | $0 | $0 |
| Wess, Everett W (DEM) open seat | $80,555 | $18,283 | 0% | 88% | $0 | $0 |
| Burton, Matthew Seth (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $74,362 | $0 | 0% | 16% | $0 | $0 |
| Wheeler, Mark Shannon Mr Ii (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $17,374 | $566 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Glasgow, Valma K (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $294 | $100 | 0% | 100% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through July 22, 2026; $22,575,930 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+28.7 | R+25.8 | R+30.9 |
A shift of 2.1 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
The state in numbers
| Measure | State | Average state | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+, 2023 | 27.8% | 34.0% | -6.2 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 63.8% | 66.3% | -2.5 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 25.9% | 10.1% | +15.8 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino, 2023 | 5.4% | 12.9% | -7.5 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic, 2023 | 1.4% | 4.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Foreign-born, 2023 | 3.8% | 9.6% | -5.8 pts |
| Median age, 2023 | 39.3 | 39.1 | +0.22 |
| Median household income, 2023 | $62,027 | $77,633 | $-15,606 |
| Median home value, 2023 | $195,100 | $314,132 | $-119,032 |
| Owner-occupied homes, 2023 | 69.9% | 67.4% | +2.6 pts |
| Unemployment (ACS), 2023 | 4.8% | 4.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Federal government workers, 2023 | 3.8% | 3.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Work from home, 2023 | 7.8% | 12.3% | -4.5 pts |
| Households on SNAP, 2023 | 13.6% | 11.1% | +2.5 pts |
| Households with Social Security income, 2023 | 35.2% | 32.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Households with public assistance income, 2023 | 1.7% | 2.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year, 2023 | 2.4% | 2.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Gini index, 2023 | 0.48 | 0.47 | +0.01 |
| Unemployment, latest month (BLS), 2026-07 | 3.7% | 4.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months, 2026-07 | +0.7 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| Change since the last election (24 months), 2026-07 | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $57,311 | $70,662 | $-13,351 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 33.3% | 32.4% | +0.9 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 24.1% | 19.4% | +4.7 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 8.1% | 6.1% | +2.0 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 5.9% | 4.4% | +1.6 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 2.9% | 3.8% | -0.9 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.9% | 0.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.6% | 0.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.6% | 0.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.9% | 1.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.0% | 1.2% | -0.2 pts |
ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.
Who is ahead, and by how much?
Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.
How likely is each to win?
Monte Carlo error is ±0.1 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.
How wide is the range?
Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -38.6 and -4.6 points. Election day: -40.9 to -4.5. The election-day interval is 2.5 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.
What is the uncertainty made of?
Total sd 11.16 points, made of latent opinion 62%, race-specific polling error 20%, drift to election day 13%, correlated polling error 5%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
What evidence is this built on?
2 polls, most recent 2026-09-25. 50% verified against a primary source.
What changed since the last run?
Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Everett Wess ahead of Barry Moore. Over 15 stored forecasts the central estimate moved -7.3 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and 1 new poll arrived over this window — so the movement mixes new evidence with changes to the model.
Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls.
Not answered here: why it changed. Splitting a move into new polls, time and specification means re-running the earlier model against the later inputs -- two extra posterior fits -- so it is computed on a cadence (scripts/attribute_forecasts.py) rather than while you wait. This pair of runs has not been decomposed yet. The size of the move is shown; the cause is not guessed at.
How has this model done before?
Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.
Where did every number come from?
Nowcast run 0b3460f0-b364-4786-9920-1cc0b0f8516e and election-day run 033b8333-5ae5-4107-8a04-c83c35a25b2a, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.