ME-2 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
Maine's 2nd district comprises central and northern Maine, one of the most rural districts in the United States, taking in Lewiston, Bangor and Augusta. The lines were not redrawn for this cycle. The text records the district voting for Trump by 9.5 percentage points in 2024 while re-electing Democrat Jared Golden by less than one percent, the widest Trump margin among the 13 districts that split their ballot that way.
The seat is open: Golden withdrew in November 2025. The Democratic nominee is Matthew Dunlap, the state auditor, backed by former representative Mike Michaud; he won a ranked-choice primary over state senator Joe Baldacci 52.5% to 47.5% in the final round. The Republican nominee is Paul LePage, governor from 2011 to 2019, who carried the district by about two points in his 2022 gubernatorial loss; he was unopposed in his primary and is endorsed by the 2024 nominee Austin Theriault. His residency has been criticized. As of June 30, 2026 LePage had raised $2,563,901 with $1,685,711 on hand; Dunlap $1,205,432 with $228,649 on hand.
Every rater listed calls the seat Flip: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (November 6, 2025), Inside Elections (November 5, 2025), Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 29, 2026) and Silver Bulletin (August 20, 2026). The most recent polls are the University of New Hampshire (September 17–21, 2026) at Dunlap 51%, LePage 45%; Impact Research (D) (September 8–12, 2026) at 49% each; and the DCCC Targeting Team (D) (August 11–13, 2026) at LePage 49%, Dunlap 48%.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
The incumbent is Democrat Jared Golden, who was first elected in 2018 when he narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin.
Golden initially sought re-election to a fifth term but withdrew in November 2025.
Matthew Dunlap, state auditor of Maine (2021, 2022–present)
Paul LePage, former governor of Maine (2011–2019) and nominee for governor in 2022
Maine State Auditor Matthew Dunlap entered the Democratic primary as a challenger to Golden, and has the support of Mike Michaud, who represented this district from 2003 to 2015.
former governor of Maine (2011–2019) and nominee for governor in 2022
The district voted for Trump by 9.5 percentage points in 2024 while re-electing Golden by less than one percent
He was most recently re-elected in 2024 with 50.3% of the vote
The 2nd district comprises central and northern Maine and is one of the most rural districts in the United States.
In the Democratic primary, no candidate received 50% of the vote, sending the election to a ranked-choice runoff. Dunlap defeated Baldacci in the final round, 52.5%–47.5%.
Decision Desk HQ Flip July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report Flip November 6, 2025
Matthew Dunlap (D) $1,205,432 $976,783 $228,649
University of New Hampshire September 17–21, 2026 627 (LV) ± 3.9% |51% 45% 5%
making it Trump's widest margin of victory in any of the 13 districts that voted for him while simultaneously electing a Democrat to Congress on the same ballot
LePage nonetheless narrowly carried the 2nd congressional district by about two points over incumbent Democratic governor Janet Mills
LePage's residency has been criticized. He has rented an apartment in Augusta from fellow Republican Shawn Moody, but LePage's campaign declined to discuss if he would live there if elected.
Jordan Wood, former chief of staff to U.S. representative Katie Porter (previously ran for U.S. Senate)
Austin Theriault, former state representative from the 1st district (2022–2024) and nominee for this district in 2024 (endorsed LePage)
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Not in the source: The model's basis says no district polls, although the text lists seven Dunlap-LePage general-election polls plus hypothetical matchups for Baldacci, Golden and Wood against LePage.; The ratings are given only as 'Flip' with no Lean/Likely/Toss-up gradation.; The endorsements sections name no endorsers beyond Michaud for Dunlap and Theriault for LePage.; The text does not say why Golden withdrew.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as ffbb5662bd25; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Jared F. Golden (Democrat), in this chamber since 2019, 4 terms. Committees: House Committee on Natural Resources; House Committee on Armed Services.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+10.5 | R+7.0 | R+10.2 |
A shift of 0.3 points toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 69% | 64% / 54% | 61% | 38% |
| White, degree | 25% | 87% / 84% | 34% | 62% |
| Black | 1% | 31% / 23% | 0% | 91% |
| Hispanic | 1% | 64% / 46% | 1% | 59% |
| Asian | 1% | 60% / 47% | 0% | 65% |
| Other / multiracial | 3% | 70% / 63% | 3% | 60% |
Of about 500,951 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 46.8% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 47.5% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 1.3 points toward Democrats. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood, Jordan (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $6,044,820 | $197,675 | 1% | 7% | $0 | $0 |
| Golden, Jared (DEM) incumbent · not on our roster | $2,582,580 | $397,679 | 12% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Lepage, Paul (REP) open seat | $2,563,901 | $1,685,710 | 16% | 0% | $6,547 | $0 |
| Dunlap, Matt (DEM) open seat | $1,205,432 | $228,649 | 1% | 1% | $100,816 | $0 |
| Baldacci, Joseph (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $664,203 | $20,125 | 11% | 11% | $906,858 | $472,116 |
| Loud, Paige (DEM) open seat · not on our roster | $60,562 | $4,756 | 6% | 52% | $0 | $0 |
| Theriault, Austin Leo (REP) challenger · not on our roster | $8,440 | $10,974 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Clark, James L. (REP) open seat · not on our roster | $600 | $550 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through June 30, 2026; $1,486,337 of independent expenditures for or against these candidates this cycle (FEC Schedule E, types 24E and 24A), which is the parties' and outside groups' own revealed view of whether this seat is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 27.9% | 34.9% | -7.1 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 91.7% | 58.2% | +33.5 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 1.4% | 12.0% | -10.6 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 1.8% | 19.0% | -17.2 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 0.8% | 5.8% | -5.0 pts |
| Foreign-born | 3.1% | 13.9% | -10.8 pts |
| Median age | 45.3 | 39.2 | 6.1 |
| Median household income | $61,795 | $84,362 | $-22,567 |
| Median home value | $198,700 | $379,737 | $-181,037 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 74.1% | 65.1% | +9.0 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 3.5% | 4.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | -0.1 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | +0.3 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 4.5% | 5.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Federal government workers | 2.5% | 2.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Work from home | 11.5% | 13.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 15.4% | 11.8% | +3.6 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 39.0% | 31.2% | +7.8 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 3.4% | 2.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Gini index | 0.40 | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $57,840 | $73,248 | $-15,408 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 34.9% | 32.0% | +3.0 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 29.3% | 19.6% | +9.8 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 8.8% | 5.8% | +3.0 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 4.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 6.4% | 4.0% | +2.5 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.9% | 0.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 1.7% | 0.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.3% | 1.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.5% | 0.9% | -0.4 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from -4.7 to +25.3 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: PAC money balance: 5.8 pts toward the Democrat; Democrat's experience (statewide or former federal office): 1.4 pts toward the Democrat; total outside/party money: 1.3 pts toward the Democrat; hispanic share (1.9%): 1.3 pts toward the Democrat; gini (42.8%): 0.5 pts toward the Democrat.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 9.09 points, made of the seat's own volatility 90%, correlated polling error 10%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).