New Mexico · Governor

Who is running?

Deb Haaland (Democratic), Gregg Hull (Republican). The margin below is Deb Haaland minus the other candidate in the main contest; the rest are on the ballot and not in it.

The race, in brief

New Mexico's governorship is open: Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham is term limited. The text gives no presidential or previous gubernatorial results for the state. The state profile is on file in the facts.

The Democratic nominee is Deb Haaland, former U.S. secretary of the interior (2021–2025) and former U.S. representative, who won the June 2 primary with 72.3% (158,713 votes) over Bernalillo County district attorney Sam Bregman. Her running mate is Stephanie Garcia Richard, chosen by the State Central Committee on July 30 after the primary winner Maggie Toulouse Oliver withdrew on June 18 citing health issues. The Republican nominee is Gregg Hull, mayor of Rio Rancho (2014–2026), who won with 47.0% over Doug Turner (36.9%) and Duke Rodriguez (16.1%); his running mate is state senator David Gallegos. Former Las Cruces mayor Ken Miyagishima dropped an independent bid and endorsed Hull. Primary-period reports as of April 13, 2026 show Haaland raising $11,079,701 and Hull $474,113.

All seven raters listed, including The Cook Political Report (September 10, 2026) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 3, 2026), put the race at D. The text's polling average is Haaland 46.8%, Hull 37.0%. Research & Polling Inc. (August 21–28, 2026) has Haaland 49%, Hull 43%; a McLaughlin & Associates poll for Hull's campaign (July 13–15) has Haaland 46%, Hull 45%.

A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.

The facts, each beside its sentence

Not in the source: The facts carry no forecast basis.; No general-election fundraising figures; the latest are April 13, 2026 primary-period reports.; No presidential or previous gubernatorial results are given as numbers.; The lead spells the Democratic runner-up 'Sam Bergman'; the candidate list and results say 'Sam Bregman'.; Ratings are given only as 'D' with no Lean/Likely/Safe.

Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as e2665c09e8ad; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.

How it has voted for president

A shift of 3.2 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns summed; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.

The state in numbers

ACS 5-year state tables; BLS county unemployment and BEA county income, transfers and jobs summed to the state. Every figure is a named column of a named public-domain table, archived before it was read.

Who is ahead, and by how much?

Two numbers because they answer two questions. The nowcast is where opinion stands; the election-day forecast is where it is likely to end up.

How likely is each to win?

Monte Carlo error is ±0.2 points. A change smaller than that is simulation noise rather than news, and this page will not describe it as movement.

How wide is the range?

Nowcast: 90% of simulations fall between -11.1 and +24.2 points. Election day: -10.4 to +27.3. The election-day interval is 2.4 points wider, which is the 33 days of movement still to come.

What is the uncertainty made of?

Total sd 11.53 points, made of latent opinion 65%, race-specific polling error 19%, drift to election day 12%, correlated polling error 4%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.

What evidence is this built on?

3 polls, most recent 2026-08-28. 67% verified against a primary source.

What changed since the last run?

Shaded band is the 90% interval, line is the central estimate, positive is Deb Haaland ahead of Gregg Hull. Over 13 stored forecasts the central estimate moved +0.4 points. There were 6 specification changes (marked on the axis) and no new polls arrived over this window — so every movement in this chart is a change to the model, not a change in the race.

Since 2026-10-01: margin +0.00 points, win probability +0.0 points, on +0 polls. Of that, +0.00 points came from +0 poll(s), +0.26 from the shorter horizon, and -0.26 from the model specification.

How has this model done before?

Measured on 230 forecasts across 230 races in cycles 2016,2018,2020,2022,2024: mean absolute error 4.56 points, Brier score 0.0543. The nominal 90% interval contained the result 94% of the time, the 80% interval 84%, and the 50% interval 47%. Read that with care: a national polling miss moves every race in a cycle at once, so the sample size for a question about the intervals is 5 cycle(s), not 230 forecasts. Per cycle -- bias +1.644 pts; 2016: n=43 bias=+4.68 cov90=0.860; 2018: n=63 bias=-0.52 cov90=1.000; 2020: n=35 bias=+5.44 cov90=0.886; 2022: n=54 bias=-0.60 cov90=0.944; 2024: n=35 bias=+1.48 cov90=1.000.

Where did every number come from?

Nowcast run eb89893d-d9e1-48fd-a1ca-ed89bf4c3235 and election-day run 59159fbb-a6ef-46d0-a90f-17fa64775f1b, model single_race_latent/0.8.1 at commit bdf7e83107c17a2399efe61a44ef1bbee48f9284, seeds 20260924 and 20260924.