Montana House
2026 forecast. Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
<1%chance of a Democratic majority
>99%chance of a Republican majority
51seats for a majority, of 100
100 of 100 seats are up in 2026. Democrats are forecast to hold 42 seats after November (80% range 38–45) and Republicans 58 (55–62). In 2 seats a Democrat or Republican faces only independents or minor-party candidates and is counted as winning; in 2018 to 2024 such candidates lost about 3% of the time, mostly to sitting independents.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.
Go to a district
Shaded by the chance of a Democratic win; pale dashed chips are not up in 2026.
Districts
Chance: of a Democratic win (in a district electing several members, of Democrats winning at least half its seats). Source: where the candidate list came from.
| District | Status | Candidates | Democratic chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast | Michelle Bianco (R), Dakota V Adams (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 2 | Forecast | Tom Millett (R), Jane Maahs (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 3 | Forecast | Derek Peachey (R), Debo Powers (D) | 90% | news guide |
| 4 | Forecast | Shaun Pandina (R), Paula Koch (D) | 51% | news guide |
| 5 | Forecast | Braxton Mitchell (R), Luca Welle (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 6 | Forecast | Jim Riley (R), Darren Fix (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 7 | Forecast | Courtenay Sprunger (R), Madison Evans (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 8 | Forecast | Lukas Schubert (R), Calvin Lime (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 9 | Forecast | Steven C Kelly (R), Kate McLaughlin (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 10 | Forecast | Terry Falk (R), Catherine C Allen (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 11 | Forecast | Ed Byrne (R), Maeve Kintzler (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 12 | Forecast | Tracy A Sharp (R), Cindy L Bruckner (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 13 | Forecast | Finley Warden (R), Dalton Bradford (D) | 4% | news guide |
| 14 | Forecast | Paul Fielder (R), Colleen Hinds (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 15 | Forecast | Ralph Foster (R), Thedis B Crowe (D) | 90% | news guide |
| 16 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Lona R Running Wolf (D) | news guide | |
| 17 | Forecast | Justin W Cleveland (R), Chris Bechtold (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 18 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Bruce "Butch" Gillespie (R) | news guide | |
| 19 | Forecast | Hannah Trebas (R), Jane Weber (D) | 96% | news guide |
| 20 | Forecast | Melissa Nikolakakos (R), Steve Keller (D) | 22% | news guide |
| 21 | Forecast | Trevor P Funseth (R), Lela Graham (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 22 | Forecast | Jason Lorang (R), Neal Miller (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 23 | Forecast | Eric Tilleman (R), Rebecca Bogden-Richards (D) | 5% | news guide |
| 24 | Forecast | Steve Fitzpatrick (R), Pam Carroll (D) | 6% | news guide |
| 25 | Forecast | Steve Gist (R), Jerry Ferderer (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 26 | Forecast | Russel Miner (R), Paul Jefferson (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 27 | No Republican running: counted Democrat | Paul Tuss (D), Jordan Ophus (Libertarian) | news guide | |
| 28 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Chisholm B Christensen (R) | news guide | |
| 29 | Forecast | Valerie Moore (R), Tess Fahlgren (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 30 | Forecast | Morgan Thiel (R), Jason Boeshore (D) | 2% | news guide |
| 31 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Natalie Oneal (D) | news guide | |
| 32 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Mike Fox (D) | news guide | |
| 33 | Forecast | Brandon Ler (R), Tristan Veverka (D) | 2% | news guide |
| 34 | Forecast | Jerry Schillinger (R), Jasmine Erickson (D) | 2% | news guide |
| 35 | Forecast | Gary Parry (R), Natalie Parker (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 36 | Forecast | Ty Linger (R), Benjamin Keyes (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 37 | Forecast | Shane Klakken (R), Tracey Miller Karcher (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 38 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Greg Oblander (R) | news guide | |
| 39 | Forecast | Kerri Seekins Crowe (R), Melissa Smith (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 40 | Forecast | Mike Vinton (R), Gabriel Bradshaw (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 41 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Jade Sooktis (D) | news guide | |
| 42 | Forecast | Jeremiah Jabs (R), Sidney Chip Fitzpatrick (D) | 92% | news guide |
| 43 | Forecast | Larry Brewster (R), Rudolf Haden (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 44 | Forecast | Katie Zolnikov (R), Mike Eaton (D) | 4% | news guide |
| 45 | Forecast | Bryce Walston (R), Denise Baum (D) | 93% | news guide |
| 46 | Forecast | Kim Welzenbach (R), Denise Joy (D) | 93% | news guide |
| 47 | Forecast | John Maxwell (R), James Reavis (D) | 93% | news guide |
| 48 | Forecast | Curtis Schomer (R), Tucker Colvin (D) | 7% | news guide |
| 49 | Forecast | Charlie Loveridge (R), Rebecca Noell (D) | 2% | news guide |
| 50 | Forecast | Stewart Harris (R), Mark Peters (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 51 | Forecast | Jodee Etchart (R), Precious McKenzie (D) | 6% | news guide |
| 52 | Forecast | Stacy Zinn (R), Elizabeth Heald (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 53 | Forecast | Troy Charbonneau (R), Matthew J Hankins (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 54 | Forecast | Lee Deming (R), Janine Coole (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 55 | Forecast | Brad Barker (R), Richard Gessling (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 56 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Fiona B Nave (R) | news guide | |
| 57 | Forecast | Bob Crank (R), Becky Edwards (D) | 68% | news guide |
| 58 | Forecast | Joshua Congleton (R), Jamie L Isaly (D) | 95% | news guide |
| 59 | Forecast | Marc Greendorfer (R), Katie Fire Thunder (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 60 | Forecast | Greg Leman (R), Alanah Griffith (D) | 91% | news guide |
| 61 | Forecast | Eric Jacobs (R), Rio Roland (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 62 | Forecast | Esther Fishbaugh (R), Joshua A Seckinger (D) | 87% | news guide |
| 63 | Forecast | Lawrence R Moore (R), Peter Strand (D) | 94% | news guide |
| 64 | Forecast | Daniel Ricardo Martinez (R), Brady Bremer (D) | 91% | news guide |
| 65 | Forecast | Joe Flynn (R), Brian Close (D) | 98% | news guide |
| 66 | Forecast | Owen Lang (R), Eric Matthews (D) | 98% | news guide |
| 67 | Forecast | Jedediah Hinkle (R), Logan Henke (D) | 1% | news guide |
| 68 | Forecast | Randy Chamberlin (R), Jocelyn Kent (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 69 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Trevor Walter (R) | news guide | |
| 70 | Forecast | Shannon Maness (R), Kobi Craddock (D) | 3% | news guide |
| 71 | Forecast | Suzzann Nordwick (R), Scott Demarois (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 72 | Forecast | Michael Saul (R), Donavon Hawk (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 73 | Forecast | Gerry Kennedy (R), Jennifer Lynch (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 74 | Forecast | Trenin Bayless (R), Marc J Lee (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 75 | Forecast | Mark Reinschmidt (R), Patrick Sullivan (D), Greg Devries (Libertarian) | <1% | news guide |
| 76 | No Democrat running: counted Republican | Trish Schreiber (R), Shayne Morgan (independent) | news guide | |
| 77 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jane Gillette (R) | news guide | |
| 78 | Forecast | Randyn Gregg (R), Mark White (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 79 | Forecast | Chiko Olson (R), Luke Muszkiewicz (D) | 94% | news guide |
| 80 | Forecast | Katie Fruits (R), Megan Lane (D) | 89% | news guide |
| 81 | Forecast | John J Looney Sr. (R), Janet Ellis (D) | 94% | news guide |
| 82 | Forecast | Clinton McKay (R), Pete Elverum (D) | 97% | news guide |
| 83 | Forecast | Aaron J Leas (R), Joe Cohenour (D) | 97% | news guide |
| 84 | Forecast | Roy Caldwell (R), Tia Nelson (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 85 | Forecast | Kim Dailey (R), Laura Jackson (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 86 | Forecast | Wayne Rusk (R), Archie Thomas (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 87 | Forecast | Terry Nelson (R), Bill Jones (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 88 | Forecast | Greg Overstreet (R), Evan Schroedel (D) | <1% | news guide |
| 89 | Forecast | Lyn Hellegaard (R), Mark A Thane (D) | 97% | news guide |
| 90 | Decided: only a Republican is running | Jeff Stanek (R) | news guide | |
| 91 | Forecast | Charles Headley (R), Shelly Fyant (D) | 96% | news guide |
| 92 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Monica Tranel (D) | news guide | |
| 93 | Forecast | Roy Handley (R), Ben Davis (D) | 99% | news guide |
| 94 | Forecast | Greg Woodward (R), Robin Kendall (D) | 98% | news guide |
| 95 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Zooey Zephyr (D) | news guide | |
| 96 | Decided: only a Democrat is running | Bob Carter (D) | news guide | |
| 97 | Forecast | Michael P Hagestad (R), Melody J Cunningham (D) | >99% | news guide |
| 98 | Forecast | Bryan Muzzana (R), Jonathan Karlen (D) | 99% | news guide |
| 99 | Forecast | Ryan Darling (R), Tom France (D) | 98% | news guide |
| 100 | Forecast | Michael Daniel Bowles (R), Sj Howell (D), Jc Windmueller (Libertarian) | >99% | news guide |