NY-2 · House
election-day forecast · ground-up model · as of 2026-10-02
The district, in brief
New York's 2nd is on the South Shore of Suffolk County, taking in the towns of Babylon, Islip and most of Brookhaven, plus Massapequa in Nassau County, on the map first used in 2024. The incumbent is Republican Andrew Garbarino, re-elected with 59.8% in 2024.
Garbarino is the Republican nominee with no primary opponent listed; he is endorsed by Donald Trump, Log Cabin Republicans and the Conservative Party, whose line he holds. The Democratic nominee is Patrick Halpin, Suffolk County Executive from 1988 to 1991, who holds the Working Families line; his only listed rival, Jess Murphy, was disqualified, and two others withdrew.
Every rater listed calls the seat R: Decision Desk HQ (July 14, 2026), the Cook Political Report (February 6, 2025), Inside Elections (March 7, 2025) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (September 18, 2025). As of June 30, 2026 Garbarino had raised $3,513,016 with $3,458,915 on hand; Halpin had raised $461,848 with $89,408 on hand. The facts put the district's 2024 presidential two-party margin at -14.1 for the Democrat.
A paragraph quoting a model forecast from the day this brief was written is omitted; the current forecast is at the top of this page.
The facts, each beside its sentence
The incumbent was Republican Andrew Garbarino, who was re-elected with 59.8% of the vote in 2024.
*Andrew Garbarino, incumbent U.S. representative
*Patrick Halpin, former Suffolk County Executive (1988–1991)
*Andrew Garbarino, incumbent U.S. representative
Patrick Halpin, former Suffolk County Executive (1988–1991)
Andrew Garbarino, incumbent U.S. representative
who was re-elected with 59.8% of the vote in 2024
*Jess Murphy, real estate investment manager
Decision Desk HQ R July 14, 2026 The Cook Political Report R February 6, 2025
| Andrew Garbarino (R) $3,513,016 $1,599,708 $3,458,915
*Donald Trump, 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
*New York Working Families Party bottom ====Fundraising==== Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.
Not in the source: No general-election polls in the text; the model's basis also says no district polls.; No presidential result percentages for the district in the text.; The text does not say why Jess Murphy was disqualified.; No general-election ratings finer than 'R' are given.
Read from the district's section of Wikipedia's state page (CC BY-SA), archived as cfb3d3b04173; written by claude-fable-5-1 (batch reader) on 2026-09-30 and checked mechanically: every quote occurs verbatim in the archived text, every number in the brief occurs in the inputs. No probability here is the reader's.
Who holds the seat now
Andrew R. Garbarino (Republican), in this chamber since 2021, 3 terms. Committees: House Committee on Homeland Security (Chair); House Committee on Financial Services; House Committee on Ethics.
From the congress-legislators dataset (CC0), archived as ae8cb9477c48. For a Senate race this lists both of the state's senators; the one whose term ends in the election year holds the seat on the ballot. For a House district redrawn for 2026 it is the member elected under the old lines with this number, who may be running elsewhere; the dossier above names who is running here.
How it has voted for president
| Two-party margin | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | R+5.8 | D+0.9 | R+6.3 |
A shift of 0.6 points toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. county returns placed on the current lines by 2020 block population; MEDSL county file (2016), an MIT-licensed county file (2020, checked against certified state results) and MEDSL precinct returns (2024). For a district split across counties this is an estimate, and where the state published the exact 2024 figure for these lines, that exact figure is the one the model uses.
Who are the voters?
| Group (adults 25+) | Share of adults | Turnout 2020 / midterm | Share of a midterm electorate | Est. Democratic share, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White, no degree | 39% | 57% / 43% | 39% | 12% |
| White, degree | 23% | 77% / 67% | 36% | 67% |
| Black | 10% | 57% / 36% | 8% | 93% |
| Hispanic | 22% | 38% / 26% | 13% | 71% |
| Asian | 3% | 34% / 22% | 2% | 58% |
| Other / multiracial | 2% | 57% / 44% | 2% | 74% |
Of about 545,242 adults 25 and over. In 2020 the district voted 48.8% Democratic (two-party) for president. With the same preferences and a 2022-style midterm turnout, it would vote 48.6% Democratic: the midterm electorate alone moves the margin 0.4 points toward Republicans. Group shares are estimated from how results vary across the state's census tracts (ecological inference, anchored to Pew's 2020 validated-voter figures) and calibrated to this district's actual 2020 vote; turnout is the Census survey's state rate by race and national rate by education, whose state samples carry margins of several points.
Not answered here: how each group will vote in 2026. These are 2020 preferences; this profile is description, not yet an input to the forecast.
The money
| Candidate | Raised | Cash on hand | PAC share | Self-funded | Outside $ for | Outside $ against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garbarino, Andrew (REP) incumbent | $3,513,016 | $3,458,915 | 51% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Halpin, Patrick (DEM) challenger | $461,848 | $89,408 | 2% | 2% | $0 | $0 |
| Murphy, Jessica Nicole (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $95,774 | $0 | 0% | 71% | $0 | $0 |
| Petersen, Garrett (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $23,797 | $0 | 0% | 6% | $0 | $0 |
| Taveras, Joshua J (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $1,528 | $0 | 0% | 2% | $0 | $0 |
| King, Pete (REP) incumbent · not on our roster | $100 | $126,632 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Lubin, Rob (DEM) challenger · not on our roster | $40 | $3,025 | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
FEC bulk candidate summaries through September 30, 2026; no independent expenditures reported for or against any candidate, which usually means nobody outside the district thinks it is in play.
The district in numbers
| Measure | District | Nation | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor's degree or higher, 25+ | 32.4% | 34.9% | -2.5 pts |
| White, non-Hispanic | 55.0% | 58.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 9.5% | 12.0% | -2.5 pts |
| Hispanic or Latino | 28.9% | 19.0% | +9.9 pts |
| Asian, non-Hispanic | 3.2% | 5.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Foreign-born | 19.0% | 13.9% | +5.2 pts |
| Median age | 39.7 | 39.2 | 0.5 |
| Median household income | $123,518 | $84,362 | $+39,156 |
| Median home value | $482,900 | $379,737 | $+103,163 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 79.9% | 65.1% | +14.8 pts |
| Unemployment, July 2026 (BLS county data) | 3.9% | 4.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Change in unemployment, past 12 months | +0.1 pts | — | — |
| Change since the last election (24 months) | +0.1 pts | — | — |
| Unemployment (ACS) | 4.6% | 5.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Federal government workers | 2.7% | 2.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Work from home | 8.2% | 13.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Households on SNAP | 8.2% | 11.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Households with Social Security income | 34.9% | 31.2% | +3.7 pts |
| Households with public assistance income | 2.6% | 2.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Moved in from another state, past year | 0.5% | 2.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Gini index | 0.40 | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| Per-capita personal income (BEA), 2024 | $93,794 | $73,248 | $+20,546 |
| Per-capita income growth since 2019, nominal, 2024 | 28.1% | 32.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Government and other transfers, share of income, 2024 | 15.6% | 19.6% | -4.0 pts |
| Social Security, share of income, 2022 | 5.1% | 5.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Medicare, share of income, 2022 | 4.1% | 4.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Medicaid, share of income, 2022 | 3.3% | 4.0% | -0.7 pts |
| SNAP, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Earned Income Tax Credit, share of income, 2022 | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Veterans' benefits, share of income, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Federal civilian jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 1.1% | 1.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Military jobs, share of all jobs, 2022 | 0.3% | 0.9% | -0.6 pts |
ACS 5-year 2023, the Census Bureau's own tabulation of this district (118th Congress lines). Unemployment is the BLS county series placed on the district by block population, not seasonally adjusted, so changes are same-month comparisons. Income, transfers and jobs are BEA county accounts placed the same way, compared with the average district. Every other figure is a named column of a named table in the Bureau's summary file, archived before it was read. This is what a reader knows about a district before looking at a poll; the model does not yet use it, and whether it should is a registered question.
Who is favoured, and by how much?
The 90% interval runs from -26.0 to +2.2 points, D-R. It is wide because this district has never been polled.
What is this built on?
A model trained on every contested House race 2012-2024 predicts this district's lean from its own record: presidential and House results on the current lines, incumbency, both candidates' prior offices, outside and party money before 1 October, demographics and public-assistance shares from the Census release before the election, local unemployment and income, and religious tradition. The national margin comes from presidential approval, the economy, the midterm penalty and the generic ballot corrected for its measured lean. Draws share national and state errors, so the seat total and this district come from the same simulation.
Not answered here: district polls, which are not yet folded in.
Why does the model say this?
Each figure is how far this district's predicted lean moves when that one feature is set to the typical value across 2026 districts, everything else held: 2024 House lean (R+16.8): 3.1 pts toward the Republican; experience gap (-3 levels, D minus R): 1.4 pts toward the Republican; total outside/party money: 1.3 pts toward the Democrat; 2024 presidential lean (R+12.6): 1.3 pts toward the Republican; moved from other state share (0.5%): 1.2 pts toward the Republican.
How sure is it, and of what?
Total sd 8.53 points, made of the seat's own volatility 88%, correlated polling error 12%. The decomposition is stored with the forecast rather than reconstructed, so a probability whose dominant input is a placeholder is visibly that.
Not answered here: a nowcast. 'If ballots were cast today' needs something that observes today, and for a House district nothing does. Publishing the election-day figure under both labels would make one forecast look like two.
How was this number made?
Run 6f211e6f-2bdc-4dda-8f72-81fc628dab0b, house_district_prior/0.2.0, as of 2026-10-02. Promoted by a pre-registered gate: on 2016-2022 its Brier score was 0.036 against 0.049 for the previous method, and on a single 2024 run 0.023 against 0.032 (experiments/district_gate_result.md, with an independent review).